Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
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Stat Hero MLB picks for today
Here is a look at my favorite plays on StatHero for Friday’s slate.
StatHero MVP
Your team MVP scores 1.5x the amount of fantasy points and you lose points for strikeouts so pick someone you feel is safe, ideally with a low chance of striking out.
Max Muncy, Los Angeles Dodgers
Anthony DeSclafani got absolutely demolished in his last start against the Dodgers May 23, giving up 10 earned runs in less than three innings. Muncy homered in that game and hits DeSclafani’s three main pitches well with a wRC+ of at least 121 this season. DeSclafani has struggled with -eft handed hitters for a while, allowing a .356 wOBA, .233 ISO and 42.3% hard contact rate since 2018. He’s way too cheap at $8,300.
Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals
After a slow April, Goldschmidt has turned the corner and gotten a hit in every game except four this month. Madison Bumgarner isn’t letting a lot of runners on base, but he is getting hit hard. Since 2018 Bumgarner is allowing a .200 ISO and 44.4% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Goldschmidt matches up with Bumgarner well, hitting his three main pitches with a career wRC+ of at least 126. He also has great history against Bumgarner going 24-69 with five doubles, two triples and three home runs.
StatHero flex pick
Nelson Cruz, Minnesota Twins
A tough month for Cruz — hitting just .239 — is why I have him here instead of as an MVP. He’s still hitting well against lefties this month with a .328 wOBA, .231 ISO, and 44.4% hard contact rate although its not the MVP level we’re used to. However, this is no reason to completely fade him especially since he hits all of Kris Bubic’s pitches well. They’ve faced off once before and Cruz took him deep.
Nolan Arenado, St. Louis Cardinals
After a slow April, Arenado has turned around his season with a good May, hitting .330 with nine doubles and six homers. Arenado has long been a beast against left-handed pitching with a .434 wOBA, .311 ISO and 42.3% hard contact rate since 2018. Bumgarner’s struggles against right-handed pitching are outlined above and Arenado has had success against him in the past going 15 for 60 with four doubles and two homers.
Yasmani Grandal, Chicago White Sox
You might look at his stats this season and be disgusted, but all his advanced stats are there. He’s been very unlucky with .120 BABIP this season but his .349 wOBA, 126 wRC+, .227 ISO and 54.4% hard contact rate show he’s getting a bad break. Matt Harvey is a great pitcher to attack, especially considering he’s allowed 18 earned runs in his last 10.2 innings. Since 2018 Harvey is allowing a .366 wOBA, .239 ISO and 43.9% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. In 11 at-bats against Harvey, Grandal has four hits including a home run.
Yoán Moncada, Chicago White Sox
His lack of power this season (3 HR) has kept him from having huge fantasy outputs, but he has been consistent at the plate. Harvey’s high ISO and hard contact rate allowed listed above will help Moncada’s chances of going deep. Since 2018 Moncada has a .350 wOBA, .200 ISO and 39.2% hard contact rate vs. right-handed pitching.
Charlie Blackmon, Colorado Rockies
The 34-year-old has had a much better May than April but is still waiting for the power to come, with just eight doubles and three home runs on the season. In his career he is a slightly above-average hitter against right-handed pitching away from Coors Field with a .328 wOBA, .183 ISO and 104 wRC+. Mitch Keller is coming off a tough start where he gave up five earned runs and two homers to the Braves. Since 2019 Keller is struggling with left-handed hitters allowing a .397 wOBA and .203 ISO.
StatHero sleeper
Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves
Yes, you read that right. He is among the sleepers on this slate with a ridiculously low price of $7,200. Freeman is simply way too cheap with his level of talent. He matches up well with Taijuan Walker and his pitches. Since 2018, Walker has struggled some vs. left-handed hitters with a 11.9% walk rate and 5.19 xFIP. I’ll take Freeman at this price all day, every day.
Lorenzo Cain, Milwaukee Brewers
Maybe this familiar matchup against former division rival Jon Lester will get Cain’s season back on track, since he is 10 for 30 with three doubles in the matchup. Cain traditionally hits lefties very well with a .360 wOBA and 42% hard contact rate since 2018. Lester has struggled with right-handed hitters to the tune of a .344 wOBA and .192 ISO since 2019.
Note: salaries change throughout the day as news and lineups come out.
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