Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
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Stat Hero MLB Picks for today
Here is a look at my favorite plays on StatHero for Wednesday’s slate.
StatHero MVP
Your team MVP scores 1.5x the amount of fantasy points and you lose points for strikeouts so pick someone you feel is safe, ideally with a low chance of striking out.
J.D. Martinez, Boston Red Sox
The power that we saw in April (9 HR) disappeared for most of May, but it looks to be coming back with two home runs in his last five games. He’s still one of baseball’s premier hitters against left-handed pitching with a .429 wOBA, .313 ISO and 39.8% hard contact rate. It looked like maybe Drew Smyly had figured it out and was turning a corner, but he gave up two home runs in his last start to the lowly Pirates. He has surrendered 11 home runs on the season, tied for the third most in MLB.
Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves
Freeman is starting to get results other than home runs at the plate, recording a hit in 10 of his last 12 games. Nick Pivetta is coming off his worst start of the season allowing four earned runs in five innings. I think Pivetta will regress, and these are the types of starts that will continue thanks to an unsustainable .269 BABIP and 71.7% left on base percentage. Since 2018 Pivetta is allowing a .346 wOBA, .200 ISO and 36% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. Plus, Freeman has gone 10-30 with a double, triple and home run against Pivetta.
Max Muncy, Los Angeles Dodgers
One of the hottest hitters in all of baseball this month hitting .364 with 7 home runs and a 1.221 OPS. Luis García hasn’t been pitching at the Major League level for long so it’s a small sample, but he has struggled against left-handed hitters (.366 wOBA, .294 ISO, 36.4% hard contact rate). Muncy has crushed right-handed pitching for a long time. Since 2018 he has a .383 wOBA, .280 ISO and 43.9% hard contact rate.
StatHero flex pick
Joc Pederson, Chicago Cubs
He’s really turned it on this month, hitting .350 with home runs in two of his last four games, including two home runs Tuesday night in Pittsburgh. He faced Wil Crowe back on May 8 and had a poor game, but it was just his fourth game back from the IL and he had yet to heat up so I’m banking on that being a fluke. It’s a small sample size for Crowe but against lefties he’s giving up a .393 wOBA, .235 ISO and a very high 18.8% walk rate in his career.
Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox
Another hot hitter on the list, Bogaerts has collected a hit in nine of his last 10 games including three doubles and three home runs. Since 2019, Smyly has struggled against right-handed hitters, giving up a .357 wOBA, .231 ISO, and 42.2% hard contact rate. Bogaerts is no slouch against left-handed pitching, bringing a .381 wOBA, .216 ISO and 42% hard contact rate. Smyly is combining to throw a fastball and curveball over 93% of the time this season so Bogaerts only has to sit on two pitches. Plus, Bogaerts is hitting curveballs better than ever in his career with a 191 wRC+ this season.
Jesse Winker, Cincinnati Reds
It’s been an incredible season so far for Winker, sitting in the top five in MLB in batting average, home runs and OPS. Joe Ross has really struggled with left-handed hitters allowing a .382 wOBA, .176 ISO and 14.4% walk rate since 2018. Winker is crushing right-handed pitching since 2018 with a .396 wOBA, .238 ISO and 44.8% hard contact rate. He feels way too cheap at $9,700.
Trea Turner, Washington Nationals
Turner has had a great season and is on a nice hot streak with hits in nine of his last 11 games. Jeff Hoffman is a reverse-splits pitcher who has allowed a .399 wOBA, .297 ISO and 40.4% hard contact to right-handed hitters since 2018. Turner more than holds his own against right-handed pitching and brings stolen base upside.
Alex Kirilloff, Minnesota Twins
The rookie is performing well with hits in four of five games since coming off the IL. Jorge López traditionally struggles against left-handed hitters, allowing a .368 wOBA, .229 ISO and 40.5% hard contact rate. Kirilloff is hitting right-handed pitching hard with a .250 ISO and 50% hard contact rate.
StatHero sleeper
Jarred Kelenic, Seattle Mariners
The rookie may finally be putting it together with hits in back-to-back games for the first time in his career. James Kaprielian has pitched well in his two starts this season but he is giving up way more fly balls than ground balls, so more home runs may be on the way. In a very small sample size for his career, left-handed hitters are excelling with a .479 wOBA, .480 ISO, and 55% hard contact rate. Kelenic is definitely worth a shot at $6,900.
Luis Arraez, Minnesota Twins
Arraez is a really solid hitter who puts together a good at-bat every time at the dish. He’s also one of the best hitters at not striking out with a career 8.9% strikeout rate. On the flip side, he doesn’t have a ton of power upside. However, López’s struggles against left-handed pitching are noted above making this a plus matchup for Arraez at just $7,000 on StatHero.
Matt Beaty, Los Angeles Dodgers
Getting a chance to play more often with all the injuries on the Dodgers, Beaty is doing his best to take advantage. He should get a good chance to take advantage against Garcia and his aforementioned struggles with left-handed hitters. Beaty is more than capable against right-handed pitching with a .339 wOBA, .181 ISO and 38.5% hard contact rate in his career. $7,500 feels too cheap for this plus matchup.
Note: salaries change throughout the day as news and lineups come out.
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