Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to On the Bump, our MLB DFS pitching primer. This article aims to not only produce transparent picks for MLB DFS, but to teach my process of playing pitchers in MLB DFS. Each weekday, I will go through my entire process of selecting pitchers for the MLB DFS slate at hand. Some at first glance, and some with in depth research. You will learn why I like certain pitchers, why I do not, and why I prefer some pitchers for cash games and others for tournaments.
For those unfamiliar, there is a vetting process that pitchers go through in this column, as we move through the processes to find who the plays are for a given slate. These steps are as follows:
1. Pitchers to vet — We go through which pitchers stick out and are worth looking into for the slate at hand based on various factors.
2. Matchups/pitch data/analysis — Dive into each pitcher’s matchup for the given day, and ensure the matchup is worth keeping the pitcher for the slate at hand. After matchups, the science of pitch data is discussed. This will show whether a pitcher is in a good spot based on pitch data against the opposing team. Then, we analyze the pitcher for the given slate.
3. Cash or GPP — After the research is done, we will decide which pitchers to play on which sites, and in which formats.
Let’s get into it. Thursday’s a split slate, so we’ll look at both of the,/
Pitchers to vet
(These are pitchers that stand out at first glance based on matchup, run totals and Vegas lines)
Early slate
John Means, Baltimore Orioles (vs. Detroit)
Tanner Houck, Boston Red Sox (vs. Tampa)
Main slate
Yu Darvish, San Diego Padres (@ Arizona)
Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants (vs. Colorado)
Pitch data/analysis/matchup
Early slate
John Means, Baltimore Orioles (vs. Detroit)
Means has struggled against right-handed hitters this season, giving up 15 home runs. Over the last 14 days, Detroit has struck out sixth most in the league with a 25.2% rate, which I like a lot of Means upside. He has pretty good metrics with a 13.2% whiff rate and 5.24 K/BB.
Tanner Houck, Boston Red Sox (vs. Tampa)
Houck has one of the best pitch mixes out of anyone in the league averaging 12.6 K/9, while also limiting walks to 5.14 K/BB. With his 34.3% strikeout rate and 49.2% groundball rate, I love Houck as my SP1 for the early slate.
Main slate
Yu Darvish, San Diego Padres (@ Arizona)
Darvish looks like he’s finally turned the corner in his last start after some struggles, striking out this same Arizona lineup 12 times in seven innings. Even through his struggles, Darvish has still maintained a 29.3% strikeout rate while also lowering his walk rate to 5.5%. Over the last seven days, Arizona has struck out 28.6% of the time, second only to the Chicago Cubs.
Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants (vs. Colorado)
Webb is an extreme groundball pitcher, topping a 60% rate on the season. That’s excellent for facing power bats in this lineup, considering he’s given up fly balls only 18.2% of the time. His strikeout rate is better than average at 25.2%. Webb has been ace-like at home as well, with a 1.85 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over 34 innings pitched.
Cash/GPP
On such a small slate, both in early and main I think all four of these pitchers can be used in both cash and tournaments. In the early slate, Houck offers much more upside. For the main slate, Darvish is safer, but I do like the upside for Webb.
