Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Week 6 takes us from a Sunday night game with some of the most unappealing quarterback play straight into a Monday night game with two quarterbacks much more likely to put on a show, as Josh Allen and the Bills take on Ryan Tannehill and the Titans. As always, I will provide my two favorite PrizePicks for the Monday night game.
“PrizePicks” is a creative new way to parlay picks based on expected fantasy point production. To dive into the ins and outs of everything PrizePicks, FTN’s Tyler Loechner wrote a comprehensive App Review.
How to Play PrizePicks NFL
For the sake of this NFL article, the format is simple: You pick 2-4 players and predict whether they will go over or under their projected fantasy point total, or their single-stat total.
When parlaying the players, the larger your parlay, the better the payout:
- Two-pick entry pays 3x (max entry: $400)
- Three-pick entry pays 5x (max entry: $200)
- Four-pick entry pays 10x (max entry: $100)
As a bonus offer, there is a “flex play” option. This provides an added level of security on your entry where you can decrease your multiplier received if you miss one of your entries but hit on all of the others.
An important note — these lines can shift over the course of the day leading up until lock. The lines that I am quoting are at the time of writing (Monday morning). I will be in the PrizePicks Discord channel (which is FREE!) up until lock to help out with how to adjust to the changing projections.
Scoring breakdown for PrizePicks contests can be found here.
NFL PrizePicks for today
Here’s a look at my favorite two-pick PrizePicks Power Play for Monday.
Josh Allen over 34.5 rushing yards
I fully expect Allen to pick this defense apart through the air, but even in games where he goes nuclear in the passing game, he still racks up production on the ground. He’s logged at least 35 rushing yards in four of five games this season, most recently coming off two weeks where he posted six rushes for 41 yards and 11 rushes for 59 yards. Even dating back to last season, Allen averaged over 36 rushing yards per game, making this feel like a low number off the bat.
The Titans have only allowed seven scrambles this season, but many of Allen’s rushing yards come on more designed plays than they do simply based on a broken play with a collapsing offensive line. He’s also shown the ability to rush regardless of the game script, as he logged 59 rushing yards in a back-and-forth affair with the Chiefs and 41 in a 40-0 blowout of the Texans two weeks ago.
If looking for a safety blanket to anchor your Power Play Monday, Allen over 34.5 rushing yards feels like exactly that.
Derrick Henry over 13.5 receiving yards
A Derrick Henry receiving prop? That’s how you know the 2021 season has been different.
Henry has looked like a new running back, not only displaying sheer dominance between the tackles but mainly because of his involvement in the passing game. While he failed to haul in a catch last week (or a target), his 14 targets this season are only five off his total number from 2020 (19), which is his career high. He’s already surpassed his receiving yard total from last year (125 to 114) in a mere five games this season, showing that the Titans are making a conscious effort to get him the ball however they can.
While the Bills’ run defense is good, Henry on a screen pass and running downhill can make any defense look leaky. With A.J. Brown banged up and the overall health of Julio Jones still in question despite the fact that he’s playing, Henry should continue to have a massive role in this game and hopefully an expanded one in the passing game if the Titans will be trailing.
