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MLB Prop Tracker (May 18)

MLB Bets



Matt Kupferle

Contributor's Page

Welcome to the prop bet tracker. As MLB season gets into high gear, another way to get in on the action is to analyze the day’s best prop bets – from strikeouts to home runs, first to five runs to total bases logged.

Each day, we will try and identify a few picks that are ready to explode in the prop market.

Patrick Corbin Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-110, BetMGM)

I fully admit that I was out on Corbin. Out. Out. Out. However, this recent reliance on the slider has me back in, and dude has been ballin'. Coming off a freshly minted nine-strikeout masterpiece against the intradivision rival Phillies, Corbin should be in line for a monster night against a Cubs squad that is up to eighth-worst in strikeout rate (26.1%).

JT Brubaker Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+114, DraftKings)

Hidden in the Cardinals mercurial offense is that they destroy southpaws and are horrific against right-handed pitching. They clock in 12th-worst in the split (224.0% strikeout rate) with only a .296 wOBA. You can still get this bet at over 4.5 Strikeouts (-149) at BetMGM.

Zach Plesac Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+108, Unibet)

I can't figure out this guy. Do I think he's a solid pitcher? Yes. Do I think he should have been drafted in the first 50-60 picks of fantasy drafts? Hell no. The problem? Not enough swings and misses. In 48 innings pitched, Plesac has recorded 33 strikeouts. Peeling back the onion a bit, his swinging-strike rate of 11.1% is right in line with league average, so I don't think there's a ton of upside to his strikeouts. Mike Trout is likely out of action, but this is still an offense that ranks only has a 23.7% strikeout rate against righties.

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