Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to the prop bet tracker. As MLB season gets into high gear, another way to get in on the action is to analyze the day’s best prop bets – from strikeouts to home runs, first to five runs to total bases logged.
Each day, we will try and identify a few picks that are ready to explode in the prop market.
Sonny Gray Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-120, Unibet)
The scary part of this Cincinnati team is that Sonny Gray and Luis Castillo are still rounding into form – and with an offense that ranks fifth-best in baseball (.330 wOBA), this team could get scary, and fast. Over Gray’s last three starts, spanning 16.2 IP, he has whiffed 21 batters, and he sports a 29.4% strikeout rate on the season. He’s also sporting an 11.1% swinging-strike rate, which is in line with all of his career metrics. Facing the Brewers, who own a 26.7% strikeout rate this season, I love the bet.
Alex Wood Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+120, FanDuel)
This has to be a mistake, but if you play in a state with FanDuel as an option, run to place your bet. Wood has whiffed 55 batters in 51.2 innings pitched, and even getting blasted his last time out, he still nearly hit this bet getting tattooed. Lock it in.
Chicago Cubs-San Diego Padres Over 8.0 Runs (-120, DraftKings)
After making strides with this same Padres team last season, Zach Davies has taken major steps backward this year. He has an ugly 13.0% strikeout rate paired with an 11.5% walk rate and could be in for a long day. Dinelson Lamet has looked better as of late, but he still has only been stretched out for four innings. With the Padre bullpen getting taxed for four innings yesterday, I see runs being piled up on Tuesday.
