MLB Postseason Preview: FTN Model National League Wild Card Series Projections and Odds

Welcome to the 2024 MLB postseason. We got October baseball a day early thanks to a thrilling Mets/Braves doubleheader to cap off the regular season. Playoff baseball kicks off with four games, the first of which at 2:32 p.m. ET. We ran the FTN MLB Model, and our National League Wild Card Series projections are posted below.

You can find the American League Wild Card Series projections here.

National League Wild Card Round Preview

New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers

Mets 89-73, 6 seed
Brewers 93-69, 3 seed

The Mets head back to Milwaukee after a long day in Atlanta thanks to Francisco Lindor’s ninth-inning HR that put New York up for good in Game 1. The Brewers are the smallest favorite out of the home teams in the Wild Card Round, with each franchise looking to their first (full) year manager to end their franchise postseason droughts. These two clubs match up well, you probably want to see this series go the distance, unless you’re a fan of one of these teams. Milwaukee took five of six games from New York in the regular season.

Mets: 109 wRC+ (7th) – 4.01 SIERA (18th)
Brewers: 104 wRC+ (10th) – 3.9 SIERA (16th)

Schedule

Game 1: Tuesday, October 1, 5:32 p.m. ET
Game 2: Wednesday, October 2, 7:38 p.m. ET
Game 3: Thursday, October 3, 8:38 p.m. ET (If necessary)

Probable Starters

Game 1: Luis Severino vs. Freddy Peralta
Game 2: Sean Manaea vs. Frankie Montas
Game 3: David Peterson vs. Tobias Myers

Series Prices

(Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook)

Winner: Mets +114 @ Brewers -134
Spread: Mets +1.5 -350 — Brewers -1.5 +255
Total Games: 2.5 (-110/-110)

Mets @ Brewers Game-by-Game Overview

Game 1	Runs	xWIN%	xLINE
NYM (Severino)	3.80	43.3%	+131
MIL (Peralta)	4.35	56.7%	-131

Game 2	Runs	xWIN%	xLINE
NYM (Manaea)	4.24	51.2%	-105
MIL (Montas)	4.14	48.8%	+105

Game 3	Runs	xWIN%	xLINE
NYM (Quintana)	4.16	47.3%	+111
MIL (Myers)	4.39	52.7%	-111

Mets @ Brewers Series Overview

Series Outcomes	xWIN%	xLINE
MIL in 2	27.7%	+261
MIL in 3	26.4%	+278
MIL	54.1%	-118

NYM in 2	22.2%	+351
NYM in 3	23.7%	+321
NYM	45.9%	+118

Projected starters are not yet official and usage may be adjusted. Check out the FTN MLB Model for updated projections.

Atlanta Braves @ San Diego Padres

Braves 89-73, 5 seed
Padres 93-59, 4 seed

The Braves were the final team to clinch a postseason spot, but it’s unclear if ace Chris Sale will make an appearance in San Diego. The lefty was scratched with back spasms as the Braves turned to Grant Holmes and five additional pitchers to shut out the Mets in Game 2 of Monday’s doubleheader. While the Padres spent Monday working on the fundamentals at Petco. We’ve seen a decent amount of money come in on the Padres in Game 1 and for the series, as the Braves arrive in San Diego without their best arm and a taxed bullpen. The Padres took the season 4-3 over the Braves.

Braves: 100 wRC+ (17th) – 3.50 SIERA (1st)
Padres: 111 wRC+ (5th) – 3.77 SIERA (5th)

Schedule

Game 1: Tuesday, October 1, 8:38 p.m. ET
Game 2: Wednesday, October 2, 8:38 p.m. ET
Game 3: Thursday, October 3, 7:08 p.m. ET (If necessary)

Probable Starters

(*Projections were run with Elder, but Atlanta could still opt to go with Ian Anderson or AJ Smith-Shawver.)

Series Prices

(Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook)

Winner: Braves +136 @ Padres -162
Spread: Braves +1.5 -200 — Padres -1.5 +210
Total Games: 2.5 (-106/-114)

Braves @ Padres Game-by-Game Overview

Game 1	Runs	xWIN%	xLINE
ATL (Elder)	3.68	42.8%	+133
SD (King)	4.25	57.2%	-133

Game 2	Runs	xWIN%	xLINE
ATL (Fried)	3.60	45.8%	+119
SD (Musgrove)	3.92	54.2%	-119

Game 3	Runs	xWIN%	xLINE
ATL (Lopez)	3.49	43.8%	+128
SD (Cease)	3.95	56.2%	-128