MLB Postseason Preview: FTN Model American League Wild Card Series Projections and Odds

Welcome to the 2024 MLB postseason. We got October baseball a day early thanks to a thrilling Mets/Braves doubleheader to cap off the regular season. Playoff baseball kicks off with four games, the first of which at 2:32 p.m. ET. We ran the FTN MLB Model, and our American League Wild Card Series projections are posted below.

You can find the National League Wild Card Series projections here.

American League Wild Card Round Preview

Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles

Royals 86-76, 5 seed
Orioles 91-74, 4 seed

After eight seasons without hosting a playoff game, Camden Yards and the Orioles will host postseason baseball for the second straight year. The Royals travel to Baltimore for a three-game series in a rematch of the 2014 American League Division Series. The Royals swept the Orioles in four games as KC went on to lose to the Giants in the World Series. The O’s have been reeling since, losers of their last eight playoff games dating back to that series against the Royals. The O’s have the hitting advantage in this one, especially if Vinnie Pasquantino remains sidelined. Baltimore won the regular season series 4-2 over the Royals.

Royals: 96 wRC+ (20th) – 3.99 SIERA (17th)
Orioles 115 wRC+ (3rd) – 3.95 SIERA (13th)

Schedule

Game 1: Tuesday, October 1, 4:08 p.m. ET
Game 2: Wednesday, October 2, 4:38 p.m. ET
Game 3: Thursday, October 3, 4:08 p.m. ET (If necessary)

Probable Starters

Series Prices

(Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook)

Winner: Royals +144 @ Orioles -172
Spread: Royals +1.5 -250 — Orioles -1.5 +190
Total Games: 2.5 (-112/-108)

Royals @ Orioles Game-by-Game Overview

Game 1	Runs	xWIN%	xLINE
KC (Ragans)	3.48	40.1%	+149
BAL (Burnes)	4.25	59.9%	-149

Game 2	Runs	xWIN%	xLINE
KC (Lugo)	4.05	44.9%	+123
BAL (Eflin)	4.49	55.1%	-123

Game 3	Runs	xWIN%	xLINE
KC (Wacha)	4.03	46.1%	+117
BAL (Kremer)	4.36	53.9%	-117

Royals @ Orioles Series Overview

Series Outcomes	xWIN%	xLINE
BAL in 2	33.0%	+203
BAL in 3	26.4%	+279
BAL	59.4%	-146

KC in 2	18.0%	+455
KC in 3	22.6%	+343
KC	40.6%	+146

Projected starters are not yet official and usage may be adjusted. Check out the FTN MLB Model for updated projections.

Detroit Tigers @ Houston Astros

Tigers 86-76, 6 seed
Astros 88-73, 4 seed

For the first time in 10 years, and after going 31-12 in their final 43 games, the Tigers are playoff bound. The Tigers were sellers at the deadline, eight games under .500 in August with an 0.2% chance of making the playoffs according to FanGraphs, and they still clinched a postseason berth. The Tigers are led by Cy Young favorite Tarik Skubal, who starts Game 1, and the rest of the series will essentially be bullpen games for Detroit. Tigers manager A.J. Hinch, who will be facing his former Houston club, told reporters Monday, “Tarik Skubal tomorrow and pitching chaos the rest of the way.” The Astros are playing in October for the eighth straight season, three of those seasons came with Hinch in the dugout. The Astros won 89 games this season, which is their lowest total since 2016 (in a full season). The Astros won the regular season series 4-2 over the Tigers.

Tigers: 95 wRC+ (21st) – 3.79 SIERA (6th)
Astros: 111 wRC+ (5th) – 3.88 SIERA (10th)

Schedule

Game 1: Tuesday, October 1, 2:32 p.m. ET
Game 2: Wednesday, October 2, 2:32 p.m. ET
Game 3: Thursday, October 3, 2:32 p.m. ET (If necessary)

Probable Starters

Series Prices

(Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook)

Winner: Tigers +154 @ Astros -184
Spread: Tigers +1.5 -290 — Astros -1.5 +215
Total Games: 2.5 (-115/-105)

Tigers @ Astros Game-By-Game Overview

Game 1	Runs	xWIN%	xLINE
DET (Skubal)	3.24	42.5%	+135
HOU (Valdez)	3.77	57.5%	-135

Game 2	Runs	xWIN%	xLINE
DET (Montero)	3.31	30.6%	+226
HOU (Brown)	4.98	69.4%	-226

Game 3	Runs	xWIN%	xLINE
DET (Olson)	3.26	33.0%	+203
HOU (Kikuchi)	4.64	67.0%	-203