NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
And just like that, we’re back in the win column. The White Sox gave us a scare Monday, going down 2-0 early in the second inning to Oakland, but they were able to hold them there and scratch out a run in each of the next three innings. They walked off the F5 and, naturally, the F5RL on a one-out, 102 mph line drive by Eloy Jiménez off the glove of Matt Chapman. It certainly wasn’t for the faint of heart, but we’re streaking again, granted the shortest possible streak at two, and looking to make it more Wednesday.
We have our normal smorgasbord of afternoon soirees on a typical Wednesday getaway day packed with 15 games total. Value is always hiding somewhere on the board and lucky for you I obsess over trying to find it. Let’s jump right into the matchup I’ll be targeting.
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Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals
Brewers -115, DraftKings Sportsbook; Cardinals +110, Caesars Sportsbook
After Milwaukee shut out St. Louis in game one of the series Tuesday, the two teams will square up again tonight at Busch Stadium. Milwaukee’s third ace, Freddy Peralta, will take the mound for the visiting team matching up against St. Louis’s ace, Jack Flaherty.
The fact that Freddy Peralta is the No. 3 starter on Milwaukee’s staff is comical. The right-hander has made 21 starts on the year, throwing 119.1 innings with a 2.26 ERA and a 2.99 FIP. His advanced metrics across the board are absolutely ridiculous, ranking in the top-15% in barrel rate, top-10% in average exit velocity and hard hit rate, top 5% in xwOBA, xERA and K%, and the top 3% in xSLG and xBA. Right-handed batters especially haven’t faired well facing Peralta, scratching out just a .225 wOBA against (.240 wOBA vs. LHB) resulting in a miniscule 2.21 FIP, not the best news for a St. Louis lineup that sports most of its talent from the right ride (Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, Yadier Molina and Tyler O’Neill, just to name a few). Since allowing five earned runs to Philadelphia May 5, Peralta has made 15 starts going 6-1 with a 1.85 ERA and a 2.88 FIP. He’s allowed two or less runs in 18 of his 21 starts and only has one start, the aforementioned game versus Philadelphia, where he allowed more than three runs. He’s been dominant all year and I expect him to continue his success here.
Let’s get one thing straight: Milwaukee is good because of its pitching staff, not because of its offense. The Brewers have the third-best record in the entire league yet have just a .313 wOBA and 93 wRC+ on the year, both firmly within the bottom half of the majors. They have turned that around as of late, however, with a .409 wOBA and 155 wRC+ over their last seven days, but they’ve been doing it with an extremely high .367 BABIP that’s bound to come crashing down at any point. Their barrel rate, hard hit rate and average exit velocity haven’t swayed all that much over the last seven days from their season-long numbers, suggesting that their recent surge in offense might just be due to good luck. With just a .311 wOBA and 92 wRC+ facing right-handers on the year, runs could be tough to come by for Milwaukee facing St. Louis’ ace.
Jack Flaherty made his long-awaited return from the 60-day IL in grand fashion last start at Kansas City. He returned to throw six shutout innings, allowing just two hits and striking out five while issuing no walks to improve his season line to 9-1 with a 2.65 ERA and a 3.54 FIP. At Busch Stadium this season, he’s been nearly unhittable allowing just a .201 wOBA (a ridiculous .138 wOBA at home vs RHB) with a 3.06 FIP. Other than a disappointing 4.1-inning, 6-earned-run appearance in his Opening Day start at Cincinnati, Flaherty has allowed two or fewer earned runs in nine of 11 starts and no more than three runs in any start. He’s been on an 11-start stretch going 9-1 with a 1.98 ERA and 3.15 FIP since his Opening Day meltdown and I’d look for his hot streak to continue in this one.
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Despite having a great one-two punch in the middle of the lineup with Goldschmidt and Arenado, St. Louis’s offense has been mediocre at best for much of the season. Overall, on the year they have bottom-10 marks with both a .305 wOBA and 91 wRC+ while also being a bottom-10 team at home, checking in with an eerily similar .306 wOBA and 95 wRC+. They rank just outside the league’s top-10 vs. lefties, but right-handers have given them nightmares all year holding them to just a .301 wOBA and 88 wRC+ as a team. St. Louis has scored the second-least runs per game at home (3.83) this season and facing one of the best right-handers in the league will be no easy task for this group.
The pick
Two of the league’s best pitchers are facing off against two subpar offenses in a top-10 pitcher-friendly park. Peralta has dominated righties so far this season and should be able to eliminate most of St. Louis’ offensive threats. On the other side, I expect Flaherty to continue his dominance at home, and overall for that matter, and shut down Milwaukee’s bats here too. Unders are 30-24-3 at Busch Stadium so far this year and I’m looking for them to go 31-24-3 after tonight. Under 7, +100, Unibet and SugarHouse.
