Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Someone call the fire department, because MLB Best Bets has absolutely been on fire lately. We double dipped on the under 9.5 in the San Francisco and Milwaukee game Sunday and just barely sneaked by with a final score of 5-4. The win capped off an undefeated 6-0 week for the MLB Best Bets writeups for a solid 9-unit profit.
With a miniature five-game slate set for Monday, value will certainly be hard to find, but we’re looking to keep our success rolling into this week. I’ll dive into what I see as the most valuable matchup below and highlight which betting angles I see as most profitable.
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
Chicago -189 BetMGM, Minnesota +175 Caesars Sportsbook
Chicago and Minnesota will meet for a three-game divisional matchup at Target Field with Game 1 at 8:10 p.m. ET Monday. Chicago ace Lucas Giolito will take the mound for the visiting squad, while Minnesota looks to be going with a bullpen game as Beau Burrows getting his first career start.
Over a 41-start span 2019-2020, Lucas Giolito put up a 3.43 ERA, a 3.36 FIP, and 11.75 K/9, cementing himself as one of the best starting pitchers in the big leagues. After his first eight starts this season, however, hysteria broke out as he was touched up for an ERA bordering 5.00 and a 4.56 FIP. He’s quieted some of his harsh critics recently — over his last 14 starts since the poor beginning of his season, Giolito is on a run with a 3.50 ERA/3.83 FIP, lowering his season numbers to a much more respectable 3.98 ERA and 4.07 FIP. Looking at his game log, he’s really only been hit hard by, ironically, Kansas City and Detroit, who have accounted for 29 of his 57 earned runs (right around 50%). Removing the eight starts he has against these divisional foes, Giolito has a 3.06 ERA and 3.42 FIP against the rest of the majors and that’s including a one-inning start against Boston where he let up seven earned runs without making even recording an out in the second inning. He’s getting slightly overshadowed by Carlos Rodón and Lance Lynn this season, but he’s quietly turned his season around and has allowed just a 2.9% barrel rate and 28.7% hard hit rate over his last eight starts. Giolito has an 8-inning, 1-ER, 11-K performance at Minnesota already this year, and I could see him having success again in this start.
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Chicago’s lineup is finally starting to get fully healthy, which should be extremely scary for the rest of the league, since the White Sox already have the sixth-highest .326 wOBA and third-highest 109 wRC+. They’ve done this largely without Eloy Jiménez, who just recently returned to the lineup, and Luis Robert, who Chicago is finally getting back Monday. To show you how significant these two bats are for a lineup, coming into the season before the injuries, ZiPS projected the two to combine for 61 homers, 151 runs, 195 RBI, 24 steals (All Robert), .320 OBP, .513 SLG, .833 OPS, .238 ISO, .344 wOBA and almost 6 WAR. After hearing that stat line, it’s shocking that Chicago was able to not only to steady the ship, but still produce as one of the best offenses in the league, a true testament to the team’s depth. The return of Jimenez and Robert will only boost their already top-five marks versus RHP with a .326 wOBA and 109 wRC+ and on the road where they have a .318 wOBA and 102 wRC+. This lineup was already one that starting pitchers wanted to avoid, but now they get the luxury of returning tow middle-of-the-lineup All-Star bats.
Getting the start for Minnesota is rookie Beau Borrows, who has an awesome name, but his awesomeness pretty much stops there. He’s only thrown nine innings on the year, all out of the bullpen. In those appearances, he’s allowed 11 earned runs, 7 walks, 11 hits and 2 homers for an 11.00 ERA with a 7.06 FIP. Relievers’ lines can look funky sometimes if they have one bad appearance where they get blown up, but in Burrows’ case he actually only has one appearance where he hasn’t allowed a run, and he has allowed more than one run in three of his five appearances. One of those appearances came June 12 against this very Chicago team, where he had his doors blown off for four earned runs in just 1.2 innings. Even if Burrows only goes a few innings, behind him Minnesota has one of the worst bullpens in the league. As a group, they have the 23rd-ranked 4.44 FIP and have the hardest average exit velocity against, second-highest barrel rate and highest hard hit rate against in the majors. All around this pitching staff is pretty brutal and Minnesota going with a bullpen game doesn’t leave me with a lot of confidence in them here.
To my surprise as I’m writing this, Minnesota’s offense actually hasn’t been that bad this year. The Twins just sneak into the top-10 in both wOA (.323) and wRC+ (105) against righties with a near identical home line of .324 wOBA (14th) and 105 wRC+(13th). For some reason though, Chicago’s pitching staff seems to be Minnesota’s kryptonite, especially when playing in Minnesota. Facing Chicago at home this season, Minnesota’s bats have only been able to scratch out a .294 wOBA and 85 wRC+ across 216 plate appearances. They have been one of the better offenses in the majors, but even at full health they weren’t as good as Chicago being down two all-stars and they’ve only been able to put up four runs in 14 innings against Giolito this year. Minnesota has been the third-least profitable team on the year, losing $100-bettors $2,590, and I have a feeling this game will end up following that rend.
The pick
With Minnesota going to the bullpen for the game and giving Burrows and possibly Charlies Barnes a couple innings each, I don’t see a way how Chicago doesn’t put up runs. Chicago has one of the best lineups in the league, is returning two huge impact bats, has their ace on the mound who has dominated Minnesota this year, and is facing one of, if not the, worst bullpens in the majors. I’m liking Chicago and their team total in this one. Chicago F5RL (-.5) -140 & Chicago TT o5.5-110, BetMGM
