MLB Best Bets for Sunday (8/8)

That makes it five straight winners for the MLB Best Bets column, with San Francisco and Milwaukee combining for only three runs in 10 innings Friday to cash the under on eight total runs. I’ll admit I was a little nervous when Milwaukee scored an early run in the first and then again when the game went to extra innings, but luckily the Logan Webb settled in nicely for San Francisco and the bullpens took care of business.

Sunday wraps up the week with another packed 15-game as we try to make it an undefeated week with MLB Best Bets. 

San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers

Giants +101, Brewers -111, Caesars Sportsbook

That’s right folks, I’m going back to the well after San Francisco and Milwaukee helped us out with a winner in last week’s column. With a resurgence season so far, veteran right-hander Johnny Cueto will take the mound for San Francisco as Milwaukee counters with soft-tossing southpaw Brett Anderson.

Johnny Cueto is quietly having one of the best rebirths in the majors this season. Through 18 starts, his ERA sits at a 3.83 to go along with a 3.87 FIP, numbers he hasn’t even come close to since 2016. His BABIP is, if anything, slightly inflated at .318 with a normalized 13% HR/FB ratio pointing towards luck, one way or another, being a nonfactor in his results. While his home splits are slightly better, he still checks in with a road FIP below 4.00, but coupled with a very high .371 BABIP, a number that’s sure to regress especially against a poor Milwaukee offense. Over his last four starts, Cueto has been dialed in even more posting a 2.61 ERA and A 3.26 FIP with a 29% K% and less than a homer per nine innings. He’s been phenomenal in the second half allowing just a .282 wOBA to opposing hitters with a 3.26 FIP and I don’t see that trend stopping here in Milwaukee.

San Francisco has been the biggest surprise this year as one of the league’s best teams, currently holding the best record in the league by a full 3 games. They’ve been getting it done both offensively and on the mound, with top-five marks in both team wRC+ (106) and team FIP (3.71). Splits-wise, however, they’ve typically done more damage to right-handers on the year. Their .318 wOBA and 100 wRC+ suggest that they’ve merely been an average offense on the season when facing southpaws. They have a borderline top-10 highest GB/FB ratio with a hard hit rate ranking in the bottom five all while facing a soft-tossing starter who induces ground balls at about a 58% clip. San Francisco has also seen their overall offensive success drop as of recently, putting up subpar marks in both wOBA (.313) and wRC+ (97) over the last seven days. They might be the better overall team in the matchup, but I don’t expect San Francisco to score many runs in this one.

Brett Anderson has been about as serviceable as anyone could ask for this season in Milwaukee. After the three-headed monster of Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta, he has steadied the back half of the rotation well with a 3.67 ERA and 4.40 FIP through 16 starts. Most of his success has been due to his near 60% groundball rate, a mark he hasn’t reached since 2015 with Los Angeles where he posted a 3.69 ERA and 3.94 FIP over 31 starts. His BB% has ranked in the top 25% of MLB pitchers on the year and with that control he’ll be able to neutralize one of San Francisco’s biggest strengths to reach base which is via drawing walks (tied for the best walk rate at 10.7%). Since getting touched up a little by Cincinnati June 9, allowing four earned runs in three innings, Anderson has been on a six-start stretch where he’s posted a 1.86 ERA, 2.75 FIP, less than 0.5 HR/9 and a massive 68.4% GB%. If he can continue to limit his walks and induce groundballs from a fairly groundball heavy team, then Anderson should be able to keep San Francisco’s offense at bay.

Now I have the luxury of reminding everyone of how poor Milwaukee’s offense has been on the year. Looking for a team with bottom-10 overall marks on the year with a .308 wOBA and 90 wRC+? How about a lineup that’s also bottom-10 versus right-handers putting up just a .303 wOBA and 87 wRC+? Not bad enough, you say? What if I offered you the absolute worst home wRC+ (86) in the entire league? Then look no further than your Milwaukee Brewers! Milwaukee has been absolutely brutal offensively this season and even worse over the past week with just a .270 wOBA and 67 wRC+, both firmly within the bottom-5 teams in the majors. As a team, Milwaukee is great, but the way they win games certainly isn’t due to their offense blowing anyone out. 

The pick

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it, right? This matchup has another making of a low-scoring affair. Milwaukee, with a terrible offense and a pitcher who is in a groove right now, facing San Francisco, an average offense facing righties with a starter who is having a career year after falling off the map in recent seasons. San Francisco allows the second-lowest 3.49 R/G on the road and Milwaukee has allowed the second-lowest 3.72 R/G overall. I’m expecting another game where runs are hard to come by. Under 9.5, -115 Caesars Sportsbook.