MLB Best Bets for Monday (6/21)

Mondays brings us another brand-new MLB slate to turn the page from last weeks games. With only 8 games on the schedule, it’s certainly a smaller slate, but that hasn’t stopped us before from finding where the value is hidden. Without further ado, lets jump right in to the best value on today’s MLB board.

Cleveland Indians @ Chicago Cubs

Cleveland and Chicago open up a quick two-game series today at Wrigley. Cleveland is slated to send out Aaron Civale to toe the rubber against Chicago’s Adbert Alzolay in his first start off the IL.

Cleveland and Chicago are both coming into this series with sub-par numbers facing right-handed pitching. Chicago’s .303 wOBA and 92 wRC+ both rank 17th in the majors, while Cleveland’s .302 wOBA ranks 18th, and their 89 wRC+ is in the bottom-10. In regards to the two big regression statistics, both teams’ BABIPs do leave the door open for some positive regression, however, Cleveland’s HR/FB ratio is sitting at just about league average, while Chicago’s HR/FB ratio ranks second and seems to be at an unsustainable pace for an entire season. Neither team has been great at drawing walks this season, with Chicago’s 8.6% walk rate coming in at 16th, while Cleveland’s 7.3% walk rate is the third-lowest in baseball. Both of their BB/K numbers and their OBP’s rank in the bottom seven of the league so far this season with essentially equal league-average OPS marks (CLE: .695; CHC: .694). To make matters worse here, neither team has been making consistent hard contact at the plate either, checking in at 22nd and 23rd in the league in terms of HH% and 15th and 16th in the league in terms of average exit velocity over the past month.

Adbert Alzolay is coming off the IL and making his first start since June 7. Excluding his last start in which he was pulled due to injury, Alzolay has an impressive 3.62 ERA and 3.96 FIP on the season. At Wrigley, Alzolay has been even slightly more impressive, holding opposing batters to just a .286 wOBA to go along with a 3.54 xFIP. His slider has been devastating this year, ranking as the 14th best slider out of 118 starting pitchers who have thrown at least 50 innings, which could be quite handy today as Cleveland ranks as a below-average offense against sliders.

Aaron Civale has been surprisingly knocked around by Baltimore lately, but if you chalk those two starts up to bad luck and exclude his statistics from those games he’s had a 3.04 ERA and a FIP hovering right around 4.00 so far through the season. Civale’s average exit velocity allowed and barrel% are both in the upper half of Major League Baseball, while his chase rate ranks in the top 30% and his elite BB% ranks in the top 13% of the league.  One pitch of particular note is Civale’s cutter, which he throws 24% of the time and shockingly ranks as the best cutter in baseball out of 118 starting pitchers to throw at least 50 innings so far this year.

The Pick

Wrigley Field with the wind howling in, this has the making of a totals lean rather than a specific side. Wrigley is affected by wind more than any other park in the majors, with unders cashing at a 61% rate when the total is set at 8+ runs and the wind is blowing in 5 MPH. The total here is only set at 7 so the Wrigley Wind system isn’t technically in play, but with two above-average starters on the mound facing two below-average offenses with two of the best bullpens to come into the game in relief, it’s hard to not think this will be a low scoring affair. With winds howling in at around 13 MPH almost straight in from centerfield, give me a boring game with a plus money line. Under 7 +105.