Prime-Time Props — Thursday Night Football, Week 1
Prop God
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It is my ultimate goal for you to absorb and apply winning fantasy baseball wisdom from each edition of Groovin’ With Govier. It’s similar to when Neo was offered the blue or the red pill.
If you continue reading this, you will see how far down the rabbit hole my fantasy baseball analysis can go. That means each Monday, I’ll play you in like Timmy Trumpet at Citi Field as you close out your league for that first-place payday!
I’m Here To Help
Einhorn Or Finkle?
As I perused my various lineups Sunday evening looking to make FAAB decisions, I found a peculiar similarity between Tanner Scott and Jonathan Hernández. Both pitchers have been at least perceived as closers for the Marlins and Rangers respectively, but neither has secured a save lately. Scott’s last save was August 23 at Oakland, while Hernandez last shut the door on August 15 against you guessed it…the Athletics!
So why have both gone so long without securing a save in their team’s box scores? Are they at least racking up BS notations in those box scores? Hernandez has one blown save since August 15 which came against the Red Sox and September 1 in a 9-8 loss where he coughed up 4 ER. The only other appearance of note during this span was August 26 which resulted in a hold for José Leclerc to secure the save in a win over Detroit. Leclerc’s save was the last recorded save for Texas as of this writing.
Tanner Scott blew his only save since locking down his last stopper chance August 23 on the same night Hernandez got the hold against Detroit. Scott lasted 0.2 IP on August 26 surrendering 2 ER and 2 BB before Andrew Nardi was blasted for 5 ER in a 10-6 extra-innings loss to the mighty Dodgers. The next day, Sandy Alcantara pitched a complete game to survive the Dodgers 2-1. Miami hasn’t won a game since. Texas hasn’t won a game since August 26. In fact, both teams are winless early on in September. Nine of Miami’s next 10 games are against divisional playoff hopefuls in the Phillies and the Mets. There is one makeup game on Monday September 12 against you guessed it…the Rangers! Yep! Miami hosts the Rangers in a week, and I cannot wait to see if there are multiple blown saves in that game.
I think you’ve figured out the similarity here between Scott and Hernandez. Their teams stink like turds covered in burnt hair. I do see a difference here, though. Leclerc has been a threat to close Ranger games ever since he returned from TJ surgery this season. For Scott, I see fewer legit challengers to his closing throne. If the Marlins can just create a lead going into the ninth inning, I expect to see Scott out there getting the chances to slam the door.
Can’t Hardly Wait
There are men on the move lurking in the shadows of fantasy baseball as they try to have at least a slight impact on the 2022 regular season before it’s through. Many of them happen to be pitchers. First there is Cubs hurler Adbert Alzolay. His slider makes me wish I could be like Moonlight Graham and just have one moment in The Show as a big-league hurler. Alzolay threw his slider more than ever in 2021 while also holding down a 37% swinging-strike rate with that gold-plated beauty. He is a SP currently rehabbing in Triple-A. If he can give you four starts over the final two weeks of the season, he could be a boost for your K numbers.
Next up is Alzolay’s opposite in Yonny Chirinos. Yonny has been to hell and back over the last two years with TJ surgery first before he topped that off with a broken elbow. He’s a ratio savior with modest strikeout totals. The Rays need more starters to fill the void left by Shane McClanahan hitting the IL. Chirinos has been rehabbing in Durham, NC. He last pitched September 1 lasting only three innings. That’s the only problem. He never goes more than three innings in a start. It feels like Chirinos is close to getting that long-waited call back to MLB, but the Rays have plans to use him as long relief.
The Braves don’t have the same intentions for Mike Soroka. He’s been pitching down at Triple-A Gwinnett since August 16 with his last outing September 2 looking real sharp with a single hit allowed on 5 Ks over 4 IP. With Jake Odorizzi ailing from arm fatigue, and Ian Anderson not looking like a safe bet to return, Soroka is primed to slide into that Atlanta rotation. The only hiccup relates to Atlanta wanting to preserve his body for the long haul by not bringing him up in the interim? This is our concern, dude.
It Wasn’t Me
When word came out this week that MLB doofus Zach Plesac was placed on the IL with a broken hand he received after surrendering a dong to Mariner Jake Lamb, I had two questions. How is Jake Lamb playing on a contending playoff team, and what are the all-time most absurd MLB injury stories of the recent past? Let’s just ignore Lamb like most pitchers do and focus on the greatest injury whoppers.
This year alone has plenty of bizarro injury adventures. Right off the bat, the recent IL stint for Aroldis Chapman involved an infection stemming from a new tattoo on his leg. Ewww. While Jonathan Villar has been trying to complete his quest to play for every MLB team before he retires, he busted out his own chiclets when his resistance band flung into his oral cavity requiring serious time in a dental chair. Of course, there was Chris Sale having his left pinky blown apart by Aaron Hicks the first week Sale was back after missing all of 2022 up until that point. I implore you to not do as I did. Do not draft Chris Sale while you wait until July for him to make his return only to be shelved for the season after another mishap occurred. This time it was a fractured wrist supposedly inflicted by a bicycle. Does anybody really believe his story after seeing what he did to the Worcester clubhouse while rehabbing?
Locally in Detroit, I recall one of former Tigers’ relief ace Joel Zumaya’s many injuries. This injury took place during the 2006 ALCS against Oakland, which is best remembered for Magglio Ordonez’s three-run walkoff homer to send Detroit to the World Series. Zumaya’s medical incident involving his pitching hand swelling up from playing too much Guitar Hero has to sit among the pantheon of silly injury tales.
In 2010, the infamous Kendrys Morales walkoff grand slam leap onto home plate occurred. Morales broke his ankle missing the rest of the season and all of 2011. It would be pretty sad if he never made it back, but he eventually did. He even hit a walk-off dong in 2013 against Oakland, but that time he played it cool, gently coasting into home. Morales might be the standard bearer of this section.
Last year, Robbie Ray hit the IL in spring training because he supposedly fell down the stairs with his kid. He was a good sport about it, as he later posted a picture of himself taking an elevator that his new home was apparently equipped with. Ray went on to win the Cy Young award. Are you now feverishly looking up possible prop bets involving Zach Plesac and the 2023 AL Cy Young? Cue the guffaw.
If You Ain’t First, You’re Last
If you play roto, there is still time to find gaps in your standings to exploit so you can secure that league title. Just remember that making decisions within the mindset of either being in first or last place limits your ability to appreciate the unmatched Tough Mudder that is playing season-long fantasy baseball. After listening to two stalwarts (Vlad Sedler and Toby BatFlip Crazy on the FTN Fantasy Baseball pod) speak about the challenges of even finishing second or third in a high stakes leagues like the NFBC 15-teamer Main Event, I wanted to remind everyone to take great pride in finishing top three in any season-long fantasy baseball league.
162 games has never felt longer for me than it has in 2022 participating in my sole Main Event league. Staying in the top three in that league has been harder than trying to refuel my jet in Top Gun for the NES. The point swings have been massive because each category standing is so fluid. The margins are so tight. If I had 10 less pitching Ks I would drop five points in that category. If somehow I could gain eight saves, I would increase my standing in saves by eight. That’s why I commend current league leader Scott Jenstad (also known as Stryker) who is up by an astonishing 16 points as of this writing! I extend a heartfelt MySpace kudos to you Scott for leading a very competitive Main Event.
Everybody else out there who is exhausting each day to the max in the hopes of securing a league title, try to find a little more appreciation for a top-three finish if you don’t take home your league championship. Of course if you finish fourth or lower, then you might as well be last.
Screenshots
Keston Hiura – The Brew Crew hits the road again out to Coors this week. This should be an ideal situation where a matchup intertwines with a hot hitter. Hiura has been playing daily while also making more consistent contact. If he doesn’t hit at least one homer in their three-game set at Coors, I will be surprised. The expected starters are Ryan Feltner, who has served up 13 yambos in 67 IP, Chad Kuhl has coughed up 20 dongs in 112 IP and Kyle Freeland has offered up another 18 homers in 147 IP. If you’re in your H2H playoffs with 1B as your weak link, make the move to add Hiura if you can.
Jimmy Herget – FAAB boards across the fantasy baseball realm were lit up with hardcore bids for Herget’s services. The attention is warranted, as he has three saves over the last week while only surrendering one ER since August 1 with a 19-7 K-BB. He’s also holding down a 94% strand rate since August 1. That’s not sustainable. If you mix that in with his command issues, there is a reality where Herget is rolled up by opposing hitters. I happen to think the reality we’re currently sharing is a place where Herget is a solid closer who can rack up five or six more saves before the season ends. If you need saves, Herget is a solid play. If you want someone just as readily available for a fraction of the cost, John Schreiber of the Red Sox looks to be taking control of the closer job.
David Hensley – The Astros pump out an incredible amount of home-grown talent that provide meaningful production when they need it. Hensley is the latest Astros 26 rounder to get the call and produce. His playing time has been sporadic, but when he gets on the field he produces. His minor league numbers went nuclear this year. He walked 80 times in 103 games at Triple-A Round Rock prior to getting the call along with pilfering 20 bags. He was caught seven times though. He can play SS but is better off at 3B or DH. For a minute, I thought he might usurp Jeremy Peña’s playing time, but the recent Houston lineups have included both Hensley and Pena at times. Hensley is worth a spec add in 14-teamers and deeper, but you should be cautious about the playing time which has been sporadic. I really dig his hitting profile.
Ken Waldichuk – Oakland traded Frankie Montas at the trade deadline to the Yanks for a haul that included Ken Waldichuk, who made his MLB debut last week striking out six Nats over 4.2 IP with 15 whiffs supported mostly by his FF/CH combo. Oakland has 15 home games remaining where their pitchers can exploit the large foul territory. Waldy is a 6’4” 220 lefty who has sick K rates in the minors. I like this dude a lot, and you should too ROS in redraft leagues.
Spencer Torkelson – There have been many questions thrown my way about Tork. Will he be better? Was he overrated coming out of Arizona State? Did the 2022 Tigers ruin him? His 35-game stint in Toledo isn’t a ringing endorsement for positive returns ROS. In a similar amount of games at Toledo in 2021, Tork hit twice as many homers, struck out 6% less and carried an ISO over 100 points higher. Sure, small sample sizes blah blah blah. Bottom line is outside of the Angels and KC, the Tigers are facing playoff contenders the rest of the way. You can take a ride on the Torkelson Express if you like, but I think I would rather pick up the Spencer below this blurb in redraft ROS.
Spencer Steer – There is a man I respect immensely because he was THE voice out there in the ether touting Spencer Strider back in March and April. That man is Russell Withers, and he deserves to be praised. His latest curiosity is newly acquired Red Spencer Steer who was just called up to the Queen City. His MLB debut starting at 3B last Friday was stellar, as he ripped a yambo while going 2-2 with two more walks. Steer roped 23 total homers in 106 total minor league games this year. He only struck out 89 combined times as well. Steer was the key piece in the Tyler Mahle deal with the Twins at the deadline. The Reds have a full slate next week that includes two doubleheaders! If you’re still in your H2H playoffs next week and you need a corner infielder with pop, steer yourself in this kid’s direction immediately.
