Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Friday 5/3)
Adam Strangis
Welcome to Groovin’ With Govier! It is my hope that you will find this article an enjoyable read. I also have a promo code for you if you want to sign up for any of our useful subscriptions we have here at FTN Fantasy, Daily or Bets. If you love betting on MLB props or team plays, you can ride my coattails to glory with our transparent FTN Bets Tracker! Winners await you by just typing in my promo code “MJGOVIER” where you will save some dough on our unbeatable subscription packages!
It is my ultimate goal for you to absorb and apply winning fantasy baseball wisdom from each edition of Groovin’ With Govier. It’s similar to when Neo was offered the blue or the red pill.
If you continue reading this, you will see how far down the rabbit hole my fantasy baseball analysis can go. That means each Monday, I’ll hit a home run like Mike Trout so you can close out your league with that first-place payday!
People Will Come, Ray
He Had A New Trick
Last Friday night, you may have been one of the many who decided to bench Nick Lodolo in his road start against the Brew Crew. If you had a H2H playoff matchup on the line like me, you were probably going back and forth in agony trying to determine if Lodolo would make you or break you. I was so desperate I even consulted the knowledgeable peanut gallery in the Pallazzo Discord with minutes to spare before first pitch at 8:10 PM ET. The majority said start him, but even as the clock turned to 8:10 I had my mouse pointer hovering over the BN icon on my team’s home page. The deadline came, and I had not removed Lodolo from the lineup, so I was stuck with him. My opponent already received 11 Ks from Carlos Rodón in his start versus the Cubbies earlier. Now he had Frankie Montas remaining. Of course, there was some Derek Jeter Night honor being bestowed upon him at Yankee Stadium, which entailed a delayed start due to a lengthy pregame ceremony. I mention this because I was looking to see what Montas would do over the first few innings since I had the advantage of Lodolo starting an hour after. The delay didn’t matter much, because Montas allowed Randy Arozarena to double home Wander Franco who was fresh off his IL stay. Montas settled in after that, so I felt I had to roll with Lodolo even though I had my doubts. I was so anxious about the start that I decided to ignore baseball for two hours as I spent time on a Friday night with my charming girlfriend. When I checked back on my Yahoo Fantasy app around 11 PM, I let out a shriek of exultation! Insert The Office meme of Michael running around saying “it’s happening.” I was elated to see 11 Ks with no walks from Lodolo over eight innings of two-run ball! He recorded 20 swinging strikes with nine of them coming via his four-seamer. I know Lodolo’s previous start at home against the Rockies was money too, but this was a contending playoff team on the road who needed it more than the moribund Reds did. It was a tremendous surprise that sealed my spot in the final next week. This makes four appearances in the championship over the last six seasons in my home league. People say H2H has too many lucky elements, but you can use your skill to navigate them and win consistently. Just sayin’.
Hard Eight
This week there will be five teams with eight games on their weekly schedule, with the Reds even having nine games to rack up the counting stats. The Marlins have a doubleheader at home with the Rangers, three with the Phillies at home and then a weekend series in Washington D.C.. Jon Gray is supposed to return on Monday in that doubleheader for the Rangers, which means the Marlins will face Jon and Josiah Gray this week. The question is who do you fear more between the two Grays? I think even coming off the IL, Jon Gray is ahead of Josiah in my rankings. The Marlins don’t have many exciting offensive options, but Garrett Cooper has been solid with a 20% barrel rate since September 1. Tampa Bay has four in Toronto including a doubleheader Tuesday, which is why both the Jays and Rays have eight games this week. The Rays finish off the week against those Rangers, while the Jays welcome in another division foe in Baltimore. With five games, Tampa basically gets the whole Toronto rotation with Mitch White expected to be called up for the doubleheader. The Rays also get the good fortune of going against Kohei Arihara if he’s still in the rotation by next weekend. Over in Cleveland, they entertain Mike “not quite a first-round pick but still a damn fine player to draft” Trout and the Halos, before a makeup against the White Sox with Lucas Giolito leads into a weekend doubleheader against the Twins. Oscar Gonzalez is only 8% rostered in Yahoo leagues. He has 6 XBH with a 42% hard-hit rate (HHR) over the last seven. Chris Archer and Aaron Sanchez are appealing matchups for Oscar. Finally we have the Pirates. Four games in Cincinnati including a doubleheader are tantalizing because it’s in Great American Bozo-Park. It’s an ideal time to grab Jack Suwinski, who has homered in two straight. Suwinski is a lefty though. The Reds lefties have Mike Minor and Lodolo upcoming. Yet, despite Suwinski’s awful contact rate versus southpaws, he has managed to crank five yambos off them. Chaos loves risk like Brick loves lamp, but that’s the game we play baby!
It Takes Two To Make A Thing Go Right
Late Sunday afternoon, while most people were obsessing over their DFS and fantasy football lineups, there was an incredible series of events in MLB that shook the fantasy baseball realm in a profound way. The score was 6-2 Seattle over Atlanta in the ninth when Diego Castillo gave up a three-run blast that went 433 feet courtesy of Atlanta phenom Michael Harris II. Then former Tiger Robbie Grossman added to the fun with another dong off Paul Sewald. Seattle went into the bottom of the ninth frame trailing 7-6 after that colossal bullpen meltdown. If it had ended there, that would have been quite the story. Of course, that’s NOT how it ended. Atlanta closer Kenley Jansen was on to shut the door for the Braves, but another rookie phenom had something else planned. Cue 2023 first-round pick Julio Rodríguez, as he cranked his second dong of the day to tie the game at seven all! That was Jansen’s seventh blown save of 2022. Then Ty France came on to pinch-hit for Taylor Trammell, and at that point I have to believe 80% of the ballpark in Seattle was expecting a walk-off tater. Not quite. France popped out to Austin Riley for the second out of the inning. All Jansen had to do was prevent Eugenio Suárez from inflicting the death blow. Unfortunately for fantasy managers deploying Jansen, Suarez couldn’t help himself. The former Tiger traded for Alfredo Simon (WHY?!?!?!?!?) tattooed his third homer of the series and fifth over the last four games to secure the comeback win! This stunner was less about two playoff teams squaring off in a World Series preview. Oh no. The fantasy implications were massive! In my H2H home league, we were in the semifinals. I advanced thanks to Mike Trout, Nick Lodolo and Gerrit Cole. However, our regular-season champ was down by one category heading into the bottom of the ninth. He had Sewald, who was the pitcher of record at that point. Despite pitching horribly, Sewald was credited with the W, which put No. 1 seed dude up one in the wins category creating a tie in the matchup. Guess who had the tiebreaker? Our regular-season winner did! He advances, while his opponent sadly settles for the third-place consolation game. That ninth inning in Seattle changed the fortunes for a lot of people in their H2H matchup. If you’re one of those unfortunates reading this, there are no words to comfort you. I’m sorry.
The Greatest Trick The Devil Ever Pulled
As the old saying goes, fool me once shame on you…if you fool me we can’t get fooled again. Fantasy managers who drafted Yoán Moncada again this year are familiar with this saying because they can’t be fooled again. No way! It doesn’t matter if Tony LaRussa is out with heart issues despite that being a net benefit to the White Sox. It doesn’t matter if he went 5-6 with two dongs last Thursday. Even if you’re a masochist looking to poison the well once more, Moncada drafters have long since dropped him. We all know that some other poor soul who is familiar with his prospect pedigree rushed to add him to their team not knowing that they were cursing their own season. If you can’t already tell, I am clearly one of these Moncada truthers. I can’t help but get in my own way and draft Moncada on a wing and a prayer. After 624 MLB games, we can safely say that his historic BABIP season of 2019 was an outlier. Do not make the mistake I have made over and over again. If it’s a matter of 3B need, here are three players you can add who will spare you the pain of rostering Moncada while providing meaningful production: Eduardo Escobar, Luis Rengifo and Joey Wendle. Thank me later.
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David Villar – The Giants are feeling out a few guys to see if they are a part of their 2023 plans. Villar may be one of them, as he has four dongs over the last week backed up by his 20% barrel rate over that span. He also has a 29% K rate, but who cares. You’re looking for power, and he can give it to you. There are a couple lefties lined up for the Dodgers series next weekend which could be fun for the righty Villar. Bottom line is his power is all that and a bag of chips, as he has two straight seasons of at least 20 homers in the minors.
Michael Kopech – One of the White Sox’s brightest made his return this week and was promptly ripped. He only induced seven whiffs while walking two on four hits. It’s not as if he was shelled. First time back off the IL is never a given anyways. As I stated before in the Moncada rant, TLR is out and might not be back. I’m pretty much raising my interest level on all White Sox players. Plus, outside of the 4.5 BB/9, Kopech is an elite talent who I will take a chance on every time. If you need Ks right now, you would be wise to start him this week at home against the Rockies.
Daulton Varsho – The D-backs are so fun! Their young core is really intoxicating. Varsho showed glimpses of his talent last summer. Now he’s rolling in September, creating a final stat line that will possibly skyrocket his draft position inside the top 50 for next year. His six-homer, two-steal flash streak over his last eight will earn even more hype for a guy who’s inflation was already ballooning coming into 2022. Varsho will likely keep his catcher eligibility next year which has everything to do with his perceived value. I actually traded Varsho in my H2H home league back at the trade deadline for Jonathan India. I already had Alejandro Kirk, so I thought Varsho was a luxury. Mistake? Hit me up on Twitter with your thoughts.
Mason Thompson – I want to shout out my guy Chad, who has been a great supporter of mine all year. He is no slouch in his own right as a fantasy baseball player. He’s been telling me for three months at least that Thompson would be the closer eventually in Washington. He secured a three-inning save a week ago with no saves since. The Nats haven’t had many chances at all to close games, or even holds for that matter. Kyle Finnegan hasn’t recorded a save since August nor has Carl Edwards Jr. Thompson has a four-seamer to go with an Uncle Charlie slash sweeper that will look scarier coming from his imposing 6-foot-7 frame to right-handed hitters. Keep your eyes peeled with regard to high-leverage situations for the Nats as the days progress.
