Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Spring training is a wild time for fantasy players, as we see considerable overreactions to tiny sample sizes, changes in player value due to velocity jumps or drops and other big swings. We aim to cover notable news, value changes or other relevant nuggets. We’ve got you covered!
AL East
Tampa Bay Rays: Josh Lowe (OF)
Star outfielder Josh Lowe will begin the year on the IL with an oblique issue, which is an unfortunate development. He just got over a hip issue, so one can only wonder if these two things are related.
New York Yankees: Aaron Judge (OF), Gerrit Cole (SP)
The Yankees’ big slugger, Aaron Judge, is progressing well from an abdomen issue. He was hitting off a pitching machine Sunday. The likelihood that Judge would provide a full season was low, but with the injuries he’s already battling, his risk factor is even further elevated.
In another development with the Yankees’ ace, Gerrit Cole has been dealing with nerve inflammation and will be shut down for a few weeks. This could be a significant development if everything goes according to plan, but everything is still decidedly up in the air. Proceed with caution.
Toronto Blue Jays: Danny Jansen (C)
After being hit by a pitch, Danny Jansen will miss at least two weeks of action. A timeline of four weeks is more within reason, but this certainly boosts Alejandro Kirk’s stock in the short term.
AL Central
Cleveland Guardians: Gavin Williams (SP)
Fantasy managers can breathe a sigh of relief, as Gavin Williams’ MRI came back as clean as a whistle following an elbow scare with a weighted ball. He will start the year on the IL but should be ready before mid-to-late April.
Chicago White Sox: Michael Kopech (SP)
The former high-end pitching prospect will now move to the bullpen to restart his career. This is a positive for his fantasy value, as he has a path to becoming the closer in a messy and ugly White Sox bullpen – wheels up.
AL West
Texas Rangers: José Leclerc (RP)
Legendary skipper Bruce Bochy revealed that José Leclerc will likely open the year as the club’s closer, a massive boost in his value. Leclerc regained his old self in the playoffs when he got healthy past a neck issue.
Los Angeles Angels: Robert Stephenson (RP)
High-dollar reliever Robert Stephenson continues to attempt to get over shoulder discomfort, but the problem still exists. He likely will need more time to be ready for Opening Day, which further gives job security to Carlos Estévez, a player who is undoubtedly moving up boards.
Oakland Athletics: J.D. Davis (3B)
After being released by San Francisco, J.D. Davis lands in a spot where he will receive full-time work with Oakland. He doesn’t have to travel too far to get to his destination! This helps his volume, and he still retains some value in deep leagues.
NL East
Miami Marlins: Eury Pérez (SP)
After dealing with a fingernail issue, Eury Pérez is facing much more significant challenges, as he has been diagnosed with elbow soreness, a very concerning diagnosis. He will meet with doctors next week to determine the next steps, but he has to be heavily dinged at this point in draft season due to the injury risk.
New York Mets: Kodai Senga (SP)
NL Central
Cincinnati Reds: TJ Friedl (OF), Nick Lodolo (SP)
For all the consternation about the crowded Reds depth chart, their hitters are dropping like flies, with TJ Friedl set to start the year on the IL with a broken wrist. This gives a bit more security to the playing time of Jonathan India, Will Benson and Jake Fraley to open the year.
In another Nick Lodolo blurb, he may open the year on the IL, a non-surprising development. Lodolo is seemingly able to pitch through the pain, but his workload is not built up enough yet.
St. Louis Cardinals: Sonny Gray (SP)
Skipper Oli Marmol stated that Sonny Gray isn’t guaranteed to begin the year on the IL, which is positive news for the 34-year-old pitcher. Gray has been working through his progressions and looks like a good source of quality innings in the middle rounds.
Chicago Cubs: Seiya Suzuki (OF), Jameson Taillon (SP), Adbert Alzolay (RP)
Coming off a productive 2024 campaign, sweet-swinging Seiya Suzuki is penciled into the two-hole for the Cubs. This is a premium lineup spot, and one likely to give him a good amount of runs scored potential.
In an attempt to redeem himself in 2024, Jameson Taillon is recovering well from a back injury and appears ready to resume mound work. This is a positive development for Taillon, who is still a decent spot-starter in 15-team leagues.
Manager Craig Counsell did not commit to Adbert Alzolay as a closer despite his 22-save campaign in 2023. This lack of assurance concerns me, making me more willing to push Hector Neris up my board.
Milwaukee Brewers: Closer Situation (RP)
Milwaukee manager Pat Murphy informed us that the Brewers would use a committee-based approach and didn’t commit to any single reliever as his closer. We must continue reading the tea leaves on this one to see what happens. Joel Payamps is the most established, so he could gain a closer role. My favorite arm in this pen is the electric Abner Uribe, but perhaps they don’t want to increase his arbitration cost. This leaves Trevor Megill as another option. He has typical closer stuff to get the final outs in the game.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Paul Skenes (SP)
The 2023 1.1 pick Paul Skenes will open the year in the minor leagues, an unsurprising development given how conservative the Pirates often are. He is still worth stashing in FAAB leagues, so hold onto him for now.
NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers: Gavin Stone (SP)
Former prospect pitcher Gavin Stone will be given the first opportunity as the fifth starter in LA, a significant boost for his fantasy value. He is now draftable in all fantasy formats and could be in line for a bevy of wins if he can revert to his 2022 form, where he was dominant.
San Francisco: Alex Cobb (SP)
Veteran hurler Alex Cobb is getting healthy quickly from hip surgery. He had a great outing on Sunday, absolutely carving up the strike zone. Move him up your boards, as he is a good starter at home.
