Drops & Disasters: Fantasy Baseball Roster Moves (9/15)

We are down to the final two weeks in the MLB and NFBC fantasy seasons.

For roto leagues, there are a number of strategies and considerations in the “end game” that differ from those practiced in the first five or so months of the season. Let’s examine some of them:

• In roto, lineup decisions, including drops, should be driven by league (or overall) standings. The ideal of categorical balance no longer matters. Fantasy managers should identify the categories in which a boost can add standings points as well as categories that are at risk for point losses. Managers should not concern themselves with categories where the likelihood of upward and downward movement is very unlikely or nonexistent. For instance, if the only hitting category that still matters to a manager is stolen bases, reserve outfielder/pinch runner Dairon Blanco is much more valuable to the manager’s team than slugger Marcell Ozuna, who has been a four-category stud this season but has zero SBs. There are no more long-term considerations; managers should optimize their rosters for the here and now.

• Players who cannot help fantasy teams based on where roto categories stand generally should be dropped. Fantasy managers ordinarily should not concern themselves about the “name” of the player being dropped or how the team’s final roster may look. All that matters in the end game is maximizing stats where they matter. The one exception is that for this week, managers should be cautious about drops that may help their primary competitors. For instance, if stolen bases are the only important hitting category for a manager, he/she generally should drop Ozuna for Blanco, even if such a transaction would have seemed ridiculous earlier in the season. A possible exception to dropping Ozuna, however, is where the potential drop could help a manager’s primary competitor. I might be reluctant to drop Ozuna tonight if I’m battling a team needing power, assuming that team has sufficient FAAB remaining to win Ozuna for the final week. In that situation, I would bench Ozuna until next week’s final FAAB run, when I can drop him without any concern that he will help my competition.

• Matchups are critical during the final weeks, especially for pitchers. Which hitters are going to Coors Field or Great American Ball Park? Which pitchers have tough matchups this week and next week? If, for instance, fantasy managers are not going to start Hayden Birdsong at the Orioles this week or at the Diamondbacks during the final week, he should be dropped tonight.

• As fantasy managers head toward the final week, they should consider shifting the hitter/pitcher ratio on their bench toward hitters. For hitters, playing time can be critical in the final two weeks, and having additional options in case of injuries or bad matchups can be very helpful. For the final week, I try to roster only 10 pitchers – the nine I intend to start and one extra pitcher for insurance in case there is an injury announced between the final FAAB run and when lineups lock on Monday or Tuesday. Other than that single insurance pitcher, there is no reason to stash a pitcher, and the other six bench slots should be hitters.

• It can be challenging accumulating fantasy stats during the last two weeks of the season. Some starting pitchers will be shut down, while others will have abbreviated outings. Hitters will be rested more than usual, especially on teams that have been eliminated from playoff contention. In making add/drop decisions, consider the likelihood that banged-up hitters and pitchers posting career highs in innings will be shut down by teams that are playing out the string.

• Finally, and it should go without saying, keep grinding. In my many years of playing fantasy baseball, I can testify that: (1) there can be a surprising amount of movement within categories during the final weeks of the season; and (2) even after almost six months of baseball, an amazingly large number of league titles and cash positions will be decided on the final day, sometimes based on the tiniest of margins within a single category. After investing your league fees and managing teams for close to six months, now is not the time to relax or let up – devote the time necessary to ace your last two FAAB runs and set the best lineups possible (and then root for your guys and pray).

Some of the players who should at least be considered as potential drops this week are set forth below in the following two tables – the first includes hitters and the second includes pitchers. In addition to the player’s name, team and position, the tables include the player’s ownership percentage in the premier 15- and 12-team contests: the NFBC’s Main Event and Online Championship, respectively. Finally, the tables list my rankings as to how strongly – or not – I feel each particular player should be dropped in those 15-team and 12-team formats, respectively. The key to these rankings, from 0-4, is as follows:

• 0 = Do not drop
• 1 = Team context dependent; probably should not be dropped on most teams
• 2 = Team context dependent; compelling arguments to drop and not drop
• 3 = Team context dependent; probably should be dropped on most teams
• 4 = Drop

There are a lot of potential hitter and pitcher drops this week. Therefore, in order to cover as many players as possible, I will be more concise than usual about individual players.

Potential Hitter Drops

Chas McCormick was placed on the IL this week with a fractured right hand. He is an immediate drop in all formats.

Luis Campusano was optioned to Triple-A by the Padres this week. After hitting .319 with 7 home runs in only 174 plate appearances last season, Campusano has struggled mightily in 2024, hitting .227 with 8 home runs in 299 plate appearances. It is difficult to justify continuing to roster any player who recently was demoted to the minor leagues. Campusano should be dropped tonight.

The Rangers announced this week that Corey Seager will undergo season-ending hernia surgery. Consequently, Seager should be dropped in all formats.

Anthony Rendon returned home to the IL this week with a strained oblique. This news actually should benefit any fantasy manager still rostering Rendon in a FAAB league. Rendon has hit the same number of home runs on the IL this season as he accumulated in the 57 games he did play (for an average annual salary of $35 million).

Ha-Seong Kim was placed on the IL on August 20 (retroactive to August 19) with right shoulder inflammation. Kim was expected to come back sooner, but whether he is able to return during the regular season for fantasy managers is uncertain. Importantly, a return does not sound imminent. When asked about Kim on Thursday, Padres manager Mike Shildt stated that: “He’s still where he was a couple of days ago, sort of in a holding pattern on his throwing. When we’re trying to get that progression back again, he wasn’t able to take that next step. I don’t know … when he returns. Once a guy doesn’t take that next step … clearly, it’s not a step back but it’s not a step forward. So, he’s not able to progress and we’ve short of flat-lined and we’ll just have to evaluate it.” Yikes. Based on Shildt’s quote, it is unlikely that Kim returns in the next two weeks and, even if he is able to get back before the end of the season, it seems doubtful that he will help managers given that he apparently is unable to throw the ball across the field. I would drop Kim tonight.

Bo Bichette is (slowly) making it back from a calf strain that has kept him sidelined since July 19. Bichette now has played in four rehab games in Triple-A, going 4-for-14 (all singles) with 1 run, 2 RBI and 0 stolen bases. While Bichette arguably should have been dropped quite some time ago, he now seems likely to return soon, possibly early next week. Before celebrating, fantasy managers stashing Bichette are reminded that: (1) over 80 MLB games, Bichette was having a lousy season (4 HR, 29 R, 30 RBI, 5 SB, .222 AVG); (2) it is uncertain whether Bichette will play any better after a long injury absence, and he could play worse; (3) after missing roughly two months with a calf strain, Bichette seems unlikely to attempt to steal bases; and (4) with the Blue Jays not contending for the postseason, the team is likely to give Bichette rest days such that his playing time might be less than anticipated. If stashing Bichette, managers may as well hold him now, at least in 15-team leagues, especially if weak at middle infield. In 12-team leagues, Bichette still might be a drop, as I would suspect there to be better options in that format than a player who struggled for half the season, is unlikely to run in the final two weeks and who may be rested more than usual down the stretch by a team with no shot at the playoffs. Remember, the cost of stashing Bichette for weeks or months now is sunk; what matters now is whether rostering Bichette for the final two weeks is better than alternative strategies.

Alec Bohm is making his way back from a hand injury and will be activated soon. There is some concern that Bohm’s offensive production may lag as he continues to recover – on Thursday, Phillies manager Rob Thompson said Bohm was feeling “better” but that: “He got the regular bat in his hand and he still felt some pain in there, but he can swing fine with the short bat.” Unlike Bichette, Bohm is having a solid season (13 HR, 59 R, 89 RBI, 5 SB, .290 AVG) and the Phillies will want to get him ready for the playoffs. Bohm is a hold in both 15- and 12-team formats, but I will point out that: (1) Bohm’s best stats are RBI and AVG; his value is limited if those stats no longer matter for certain fantasy managers; and (2) if experiencing pain in his hand swinging a bat on Thursday, it may be some time before Bohm is back at peak performance.

Jeimer Candelario has been sidelined with a fractured toe since August 19. There is no news of Candelario engaging in baseball activities, and it appears that his season is over. Even if Candelario is feeling better over the last two weeks of the season, the Reds have no reason to rush him back. He’s a drop in all formats.

Ozzie Albies has been out since July 21 when he got hit by a pitch that fractured his wrist. Albies expects to play again in 2024, but whether he should be stashed or dropped is a tough call. On Friday, Braves beat writer Justin Toscano tweeted that: “Ozzie Albies says he expects to play again this season. He said he can bat only from the right side until the left-handed swing feels better. Because the right-handed swing feels good, he is hopeful he can return within the next week – but there’s no set date.” Thus, Albies: (1) still is not 100%; and (2) his return does not sound imminent and may not happen until the final week if it happens at all. While this information would point toward dropping most players, there are competing considerations here. If healthy, Albies is a top-50 caliber fantasy player, and the Braves are fighting for their playoff lives. Even if limited to batting right-handed, Albies still can be a fantasy asset the final week or so of the season, and an extra run or stolen base can make a big difference in some leagues. If stashing Albies, I’d lean toward holding him in the hopes of being able to start him this Friday or for the final week. While there is a definite risk that Albies underperforms after a long layoff, he probably constitutes an upgrade over many managers’ middle infielders.

Carlos Correa was activated yesterday after missing two months due to plantar fasciitis. Correa was having a solid – if unspectacular – fantasy season prior to the injury and can contribute in all hitting categories except stolen bases. The Twins are trying to lock down a berth in the postseason and, therefore, assuming health, Correa should regain an everyday role (or close) for the remainder of the season. Correa should be held by most fantasy managers other than those prioritizing stolen bases to the exclusion of other categories.

Jordan Westburg has been out since July 31 with a fractured hand. Westburg’s rehab has picked up speed, and he now is hitting in baseball cages and doing all baseball activities, building up strength. Time for regular season fantasy contributions, however, is running out. Fantasy managers looking for an upgrade at second or third base who can afford to bench Westburg for another week should consider holding (or acquiring). While one can argue that stashing Westburg for close to two months for roughly a week or so of action was suboptimal, at this point the expected playing time may equal or exceed the duration of the stash. It is unlikely that Westburg will return in time for this week’s Monday through Thursday scoring period, but he may be back by Friday or, if not, a week from tomorrow. Absent setbacks, the Orioles will want to get Westburg as many plate appearances as possible before the playoffs begin. Thus, while there are numerous risks here (of a setback, delayed return, rustiness upon activation), Westburg was having a solid season (18 HR, 55 R, 58 RBI, 6 SB, .269 AVG in 390 AB) and, at this point, appears worth holding.

Jo Adell was placed on the 10-day IL and then transferred to the 60-day IL this week with an oblique strain that will end his season. Adell is an immediate drop in all formats.

Ryan Mountcastle has been out since August 22 with a wrist injury. There is no timetable for Mountcastle to return to action, and recently there was an article by Roch Kubatko, a reporter covering the Orioles, that the first baseman is “in Sarasota rehabbing a sprained left wrist and apparently not close to playing.” Unlike his teammate, Westburg, who is trending in the right direction, there have been no reports of Mountcastle being close to a return. Absent more favorable news coming out later today, fantasy managers rostering Mountcastle should drop him tonight.

After placing Jeff McNeil on the IL with a fractured wrist, the Mets announced last Sunday that McNeil would miss the remainder of the regular season. He should be dropped tonight where still rostered.

The hitters mentioned above are battling injuries and may – or may not – return this season. Now, let’s cover a few struggling players. Importantly, anything can happen over a two-week period and, therefore, do not overweight slumps in hold/drop decisions. That noted, fantasy managers should at least be aware of rostered players who are underperforming badly. For instance, Max Schuemann of the A’s is hitting .168 since August 1, with only 1 HR and 3 SB. Managers rostering Schuemann should be able to upgrade from him relatively easily.

Logan O’Hoppe is rostered in every single Main Event and Online Championship league. O’Hoppe’s season has been one of two halves:

First Half: 290 AB, 14 HR, 41 R, 42 RBI, 1 SB, .276 AVG
Second Half: 152 AB, 5 HR, 16 R, 13 RBI, 1 SB, .171 AVG

Since August 1, O’Hoppe has the lowest batting average in baseball among qualified players at .127. While O’Hoppe has legitimate power and is hitting better in September (.222) than he did in August (.099), it would not be unreasonable for fantasy managers to consider hotter-hitting catchers. Before dropping O’Hoppe, however, consider that two of his four remaining series are against the lousy White Sox.

We have covered Christopher Morel before, and so I’ll be brief here. Since August 1, Morel is hitting .192 with 1 HR and 1 SB. Sure, he could get hot for the final two weeks, but he has struggled since joining the Rays and the odds seem more likely that he will limp into the offseason.

Finally, Jose Miranda seemingly is having a solid season, with 9 HR, 44 R, 49 RBI, 2 SB and .292 AVG in only 117 games. In fact, a .292 AVG is especially helpful for fantasy in the scarcest hitting category. Fantasy managers rostering (and probably starting) Miranda should at least be aware, however, that since August 1, Miranda is hitting .236 with 0 HR and 0 SB. Managers needing power and/or speed might want to consider alternatives in FAAB tonight.

Potential Pitcher Drops

Tyler Glasnow has not pitched since August 11 but is rostered in the vast majority of Main Event and Online Championship leagues in anticipation of a late-season return. That return will not happen. Glasnow suffered a setback earlier this week and, late yesterday, the Dodgers announced that Glasnow suffered an elbow sprain that will end his 2024 season. Glasnow should be dropped everywhere tonight.

Yesterday, the Diamondbacks placed Ryne Nelson on the 15-day IL, retroactive to Wednesday, with right shoulder inflammation. By backdating the IL designation, Nelson is eligible to return during Arizona’s final series of the season against the Padres. While Nelson has been solid this season (10 W, 125 K in 147.2 IP, 4.33 ERA, 1.27 WHIP), he should be dropped in most leagues because: (1) fantasy managers cannot use him this week; (2) there are no guarantees he is able to return for the final week (despite team predictions that a minimum IL stint is all that will be needed); (3) there are no guarantees that if Nelson returns, he will be in peak form coming off a shoulder injury; (4) if Nelson returns, his start may be abbreviated, especially if the Diamondbacks have clinched a playoff spot and merely want him to get in some work; and (5) even if Nelson returns and is in peak health, the Padres are a tough matchup.

Angels closer Ben Joyce was placed on the IL this past Tuesday with shoulder inflammation. Yesterday, Joyce’s diagnosis was changed to a shoulder impingement. While Joyce has not yet been ruled out for the remainder of the season, it seems highly improbable that the Angels – who have no hope of postseason play – will rush Joyce back to pitch in one or two meaningless games. Joyce is a safe drop.

With the return of Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt, the Yankees announced this week that Marcus Stroman was being moved to the bullpen. As a starter, Stroman had limited fantasy value (109 K in 148.1 IP, 4.07 ERA, horrific 1.43 WHIP). As a non-closing reliever with an uncertain role and usage, Stroman’s limited value evaporates. He should be dropped in all formats.

Weeks after losing his closer role, the Pirates’ David Bednar still is rostered in about two-thirds of all Main Event and Online Championship leagues. That seems too high. Aroldis Chapman has been used as the Pirates closer since Bednar was removed from the role. While the Pirates presumably would love to get Bednar fixed, and maybe get him a save or two before the end of the season, he still is not pitching particularly well. In 5.2 innings this month, Bednar has allowed only 3 hits, but 7 walks. While random save opportunities are still possible, there likely are better speculations available in most 12- and 15-team leagues.

On September 8, the Rays placed Jeffrey Springs on the 15-day IL with elbow fatigue. Since that time, there has been no news on when Springs may return to action, or if he is done for the season. In this case, fantasy managers probably should be pessimistic about a return. Springs came back  from Tommy John Surgery to pitch well in limited action and the Rays are unlikely to rush him back into action, especially for games that almost certainly will be meaningless. While there is a chance that Springs does return, it is far from certain that he would last long enough to qualify for a win and/or pitch effectively. In this case, managers with options should drop Springs for someone more likely to contribute this season.

On Thursday, the Guardians placed Alex Cobb on the 15-day IL with a blister on his middle finger. The IL stint is backdated, and Cobb is eligible to return during the final week, possibly as soon as a home start against the Reds on September 24. Cobb is a risky but viable hold depending on the stats that a fantasy manager is prioritizing. Initially, there are no guarantees that Cobb will return; he has recurring blister injuries that can pop up at any time. Even if Cobb returns, it is far from certain that he logs the five innings necessary to qualify for a win (he’s pitched a total of 16.1 innings this season) and/or pitches effectively (he has looked good when healthy, but the Reds are streaky and can score runs quickly when hitting well). That noted, fantasy managers with limited options and seeking wins could do worse – if Cobb is healthy, the Guardians should be favored at home versus the Reds. Managers with sufficient roster flexibility (or insufficient funds to make many moves) may wish to hold until next week and check on Cobb’s health before the final FAAB run.

Red Sox starter James Paxton suffered a season-ending calf strain on August 11 and announced recently that he will be retiring at the end of the season. Anyone still rostering Paxton should wake-up, drop him and congratulate Big Maple on a solid major league career.

Justin Steele last pitched on August 27 and was placed on the IL on September 4 (backdated to September 1) with elbow tendinitis. Steele and the Cubs have indicated recently that Steele is likely to return this week, probably for a home start against the Nationals. Inasmuch as Steele has not been out long and the injury suffered apparently was minor, he seems worth holding for what appears to be a favorable home matchup. While there will be some uncertainty in terms of the length and the quality of his outing, many fantasy managers will struggle to find nine better pitching options this week, making Steele a hold in most formats.

Clayton Kershaw has been out since August 30 with a bone spur in his big left toe. Although spotted playing catch and then throwing off a mound, the Dodgers announced yesterday that Kershaw is unlikely to return during the regular season. Fantasy managers should drop Kershaw tonight in all leagues.

Braves’ starter Reynaldo Lopez lasted only one inning in his September 10 start due to shoulder tightness. Lopez’s MRI reportedly came back clean, and the pitcher is dealing with inflammation, as opposed to something more serious. Lopez is eligible to return during the Braves’ final series at home against the Royals, but it is uncertain if he will do so. The Braves are fighting for a playoff spot and, if that still is the case that final weekend, Lopez could come back and given the short duration of his injury, he should be capable of throwing five (or more) innings. On the other hand, there is no telling whether Lopez will be fully cured in roughly 10 or so days, and if the Braves’ postseason prospects take a turn for the worse, he could be shut down. It is a gamble to stash Lopez for another week, and the decision may depend on the fantasy manager’s roster flexibility and potential alternatives. One additional concern regarding Lopez is that there is at least some possibility that managers may not know next Monday whether or not Lopez will return, making lineup setting for the final week particularly tricky.

Luis Castillo was placed on the 15-day IL on September 10 with a Grade 2 hamstring strain. For now, the Mariners are hoping that Castillo returns for the final series of the season (home versus OAK). Mariners general manager Justin Hollander recently stated that: “Talking to the trainers, they think it’s not out of the question that he could be ready by the time 15 days are up. He’s a fast healer. He felt stronger and better already today …. I don’t have a definitive timeline, except to say it could be 15 days or it could be longer.” I am skeptical that Castillo returns from a Grade 2 strain so quickly and, unlike the Braves, I expect the Mariners will be eliminated by the time Castillo is eligible to return, thereby removing any urgency to get him back quickly. If feeling healthy, Castillo may want to finish the season on the mound, but a short (less than 5 innings) start could be on the menu under that scenario.

Gavin Stone, on the 15-day IL since September 6 with right shoulder inflammation, is scheduled to begin a throwing program this weekend (it is unclear at the time of writing whether that occurred yesterday). It sounds like Stone has a good chance to return during the final week of the season and, with season-ending injuries to Glasnow and Kershaw, the Dodgers would welcome one or more reinforcements. While the risk of setback is high, fantasy managers looking for a final week starter may wish to hold onto Stone. Before doing so, however, checking the schedule informs us that the Dodgers end the season with a home series against the Padres and then a trip to Coors Field to face the Rockies. Both of those potential starts pose risks for a solid but unspectacular starter like Stone (11 W, 116 K in 140.1 IP, 3.53 ERA, 1.21 WHIP). If prioritizing wins, Stone probably is a start that final week, although I’m not sure I would risk it if strikeouts and/or ratios are paramount.

Tanner Houck was scratched from his start on Friday with a case of “dead arm,” but the Red Sox have no immediate plans to place Houck on the IL and apparently expect him back this week, possibly on Wednesday against the Rays in Tampa. Manager Alex Cora stated that: “Tanner’s OK. When he got here, he was on the table and (head athletic trainer) Brandon (Henry) was working on him. He felt like he was a little bit tight. He did some testing. The shoulder’s weaker than yesterday, so for us, it didn’t make sense for him to go out there. The plan right now is for him to start in Tampa.” Based on this report, I’d be inclined to hold Houck and, absent nine better options come tomorrow, use him next week in the hopes he makes that start against the Rays. Fantasy managers opting this path should be aware, however, of multiple risks: a setback and scratch, a shortened appearance or an unsuccessful one due in part to an injured shoulder. Managers who simply cannot afford a missed start should drop or stash for the final week (when the Red Sox face the Blue Jays in Toronto and the Rays at home).

Grayson Rodriguez has been out since July 31 with a lat strain. The latest report from Baltimore is that Rodriguez is throwing bullpen sessions but has yet to face hitters. Given how long Rodriguez has been out, the Orioles likely will try to have him make one or more rehab starts (to the extent possible with minor league seasons ending). When it comes to Rodriguez, the Orioles’ sole focus will be on getting him ready for the playoffs. It sounds like a final week return to action still is possible but, even if that were to occur, I am skeptical that Rodriguez will pitch five or more innings in his first game back after an extended absence. Additionally, the Orioles end the season at the Yankees and then at the Twins, facing two of the better AL lineups. Thus, managers still holding Rodriguez are advised to drop him – given the timing and his current status, the downside risk of no return or a short and/or unhelpful start outweighs the upside here.

Careful readers will notice that Gerrit Cole is on the list of potential pitcher drops. Importantly, I’m not advocating that fantasy managers drop Cole this week. That noted, any so-called ace who intentionally walks a batter (even one as great as Rafael Devers) when up 1-0 with one out and nobody on base in the fourth inning, and then proceeds to give up three runs in that inning before being chased the following inning with a total of 7 earned runs allowed, warrants an honorable mention as a potential drop. There, I feel just a little better now.

Potential Disaster Starts

Set forth in the table below are starting pitchers I believe have real disaster potential for the coming week. In order to make this section of the column as actionable as possible, pitchers who are sparsely rostered have been excluded. Instead, I am challenging myself by focusing solely on pitchers who are at least 90% rostered in the Main Event or at least 60% rostered in the Online Championship. The pitchers are ranked from 1 to 10 for disaster potential in the coming week, with the highest numbers reflecting pitchers I am highly unlikely to start and who strike me as the biggest potential disasters. 

My Week 25 disaster picks were a mixed bag. On the downside, several of my selections turned in strong starts, including two by Brayan Bello. My disasters won four games this week, which is better than many of my fantasy teams. On the more positive side, my selections compiled lousy ratios – 5.07 ERA and 1.42 WHIP – and so my selections collectively should have been avoided if looking to protect ratios. In the interests of accountability, set forth below are the results of my “disaster” picks thus far. Week 25 below reflects results through yesterday; any additional stats accumulated today will be reflected in next week’s article.