Diamond Data -- 7 Stats to Know for MLB DFS Tuesday (8/2)

Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than in any other sport. In fact, there are so many stats that, in virtually every matchup, you can find a stat to favor each side. Rather, we want to find stats that are fully supported by the collection of stats, painting one clear picture. These are the seven stats I find most relevant to Tuesday’s DFS slate.

1. 31.7%

Cristian Javier’s 3.4 SIERA and 33% K rate comes with a surprisingly low 27.8% baseline CSW. This would scream regression, except for the fact that he’s raised that CSW to 31.7% over the last 30 days. Javier has an excellent fastball, which he pairs most often with a slider, a combination that the Red Sox struggle with outside of Xander Bogaerts and J.D. Martinez JD Martinez.

The Red Sox have struck out 27.1% of the time vs. right-handers in the last 30 days, which is the third-highest rate in that time.

2. 54.6

While Boston is a sneaky team to attack, Pittsburgh is obvious. In the last 14 days, they have a putrid 54.6 wRC+, and it doesn’t get much better as you zoom out. It’s just 72.1 vs. righties in the last 30 days. They’re also striking out the most in that time against righties, at 27.7%, and up to a ridiculous 29% in the last 14 days.

Corbin Burnes should have a field day, as evidenced by his 27.4 projected DK points in the Strikeout Model, one of the highest projections I can recall seeing.

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3. 48.9%

Of the starters on Tuesday’s slate, 48.9% is the highest hard-hit rate allowed over the last 30 days, and it belongs, surprisingly, to Logan Gilbert. His average exit velocity allowed is up over 91 mph in that time and his barrel rate has climbed over 9%, as well.

This is not the trend you want when having to face the scorching hot Yankees. On the season, the Yanks are second in EV, second in barrel rate and third in HH rate. Over the last 14 days, however, their 12.3% barrel rate has surged well in front of anyone else (Aaron Judge is responsible for most of it, of course).

Gilbert’s CSW is also just 25.4% over the last 30 days, so it’s not like the dangerous Statcast data can be excused by his ability to mostly miss bats. With an IRT under 5 for the first time in a while, this is a contrarian explosion spot for New York.

4. 23.5%

Over the last 30 days, Noah Syndergaard’s CSW has cratered to 23.5%, almost 4.5 percentage points below his baseline. In the same time frame, His barrel rate has jumped from 8.3% to 11.9%, as well.

Sidenote: Are teams sure they want to pursue this guy? There’s a decent chance Syndergaard will be scratched due a trade, but if he pitches for the Angels, the A’s present an excellent opportunity for a salary-saving secondary stack. Their .233 projected ISO is fourth on the slate.

5. 145

The Mets offense is fully awake, with a league-leading 145 wRC+ over the last 14 days. A matchup with Cory Abbott and the Washington bullpen is hard to pass up. Consider this — my Strikeout Model has built-in regression for pitchers under a certain sample size. Since the sample size on Abbott is small, his .379 ISO allowed gets regressed down to .241 before going through the projection model. Even with that regression in place, the Mets project for an absurdly high .332 ISO against him.

This is not what the Mets do! Despite being first in wRC+ in the past two weeks and second in wOBA, they’re seventh n ISO and 11th in HRs. A power-independent offense projecting for this much power suggests we could witness an offensive eruption.

6. 30.2%

The man just won’t go away — Father Time be damned. Adam Wainwright’s CSW has surged to 30.2% over the last 30 days and now he gets a wonderful matchup with a Cubs team that has all but given up. In fact, there’s a great chance that a key piece or two will be traded away, making this matchup even better than it already is.

In the last week, the Cubs have a 52.5 wRC+, .244 wOBA, and .091 ISO. They’re also likely to roll out six righties.

Wainwright is a great DFS option, but I’m even more intrigued by a K ladder bet series.

7. 5

Five is not only the number of pitches that Jordan Lyles throws, it’s the number of pitches that he loses runs with. Perhaps he would be better suited ditching a pitch or two in hopes of developing a single good pitch? Who knows, but in the meantime, we should attack him.

As a team, the Rangers have lost a bit of their overall punch, but they do have some hot hitters over the past two weeks: