Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than any other sport. These are the seven stats I find most relevant to Tuesday’s DFS slate.
1. Gerrit Cole has a 3.38 xFIP
Gerrit Cole’s last start was a disaster. He allowed seven earned runs and five home runs before exiting in the third inning against the Minnesota Twins. It was just the second time in 12 starts this season Cole had allowed more than three earned runs in a game. Before his last start, he had completed at least six innings in eight straight starts. Facing the Rays at home, I expect Tampa Bay’s lineup to skew heavily left-handed. Last season, Cole allowed a .168 ISO to left-handed batters compared to a .123 ISO against right-handed batters. However, those numbers have flipped this year possibly due to the addition of a cut fastball to his arsenal as this season he’s allowed just a .140 ISO to left-handed batters compared to a .197 ISO against right-handed batters. I expect Cole to bounce back with another quality start.
2. Dylan Cease has a 2.08 ERA in 56.1 innings against the Tigers in his career
Dylan Cease has had a rough go of it over his last four starts. Three times in that span, he’s failed to complete five innings, and twice he’s allowed at least six runs. Due to this poor stretch of pitching for Cease, his price has come down on DraftKings well below Cole on this slate at $8,800. That’s simply way too cheap to ignore in a matchup with the Tigers, who Cease has owned throughout his career. The Tigers lineup has no one with an ISO above .200 against right-handed pitching this season and just two hitters with a K% below 20% against right-handed pitching this season. Cease has already faced the Tigers once this season and he went five innings while allowing just one earned run and striking out eight. He’s my SP2 on DraftKings.
3. Zach Eflin has allowed an .088 ISO to right-handed batters
Zach Eflin is a solid pitcher. This season he has a 3.76 ERA, 4.57 xFIP, 20% K%, 5% BB% and 42% ground ball percentage. His weakness if he has one is left-handed batters as he’s allowed a .185 ISO to lefties this season. The good news for Eflin here is that the Marlins only have two left-handed hitters in Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Jesús Sánchez. If Eflin can take care of them, he should cruise to victory as the Phillies lineup has provided a lot of run support for their starters lately. Eflin is my favorite value pitcher at $7,700 on DraftKings.
4. Logan Gilbert has a 30% K% against left-handed hitters
Logan Gilbert has dominated left-handed hitters this season as he’s allowed just an .073 ISO to lefties as well. The Twins lineup projects to be mostly left-handed here, and that only adds to Gilbert’s upside in this spot. He’s not too shabby against right-handed hitters either as he’s allowed a .132 ISO and has a 20% K% against righties this year. Only three hitters in the Twins projected lineup have a K% below 20% against right-handed pitching this season. Gilbert is a good option for tournaments and behind only Cole and Cease for me out of the expensive pitchers on DraftKings.
5. Kyle Hendricks has a 5.13 xFIP
His ERA this season is actually slightly worse at 5.22. Kyle Hendricks isn’t what he was and hasn’t been good this year. He’s allowed at least three earned runs in each of his last three starts. Two starts ago, he allowed four home runs and seven earned runs over five innings. Hendricks actually threw 8.2 scoreless innings against these same Padres a little over a month ago in San Diego. Still, it’s difficult not to want to stack against Hendricks pitching at Wrigley Field here. Hendricks has allowed a .295 ISO to left-handed batters this season so I would prioritize lefties Jurickson Profar, Jake Cronenworth and Trent Grisham around Manny Machado in San Diego stacks.
6. The Braves have four hitters with ISOs above .200 against right-handed pitching
The Braves have a good offense loaded with power in Austin Riley, Matt Olson, Marcell Ozuna and William Contreras. Atlanta lost second baseman Ozzie Albies to a significant injury Monday, but this is the same team that lost Ronald Acuña Jr. last year and still managed to win the World Series without him. Tuesday they’re facing Jackson Tetreault, a 26-year-old non-prospect making his big-league debut. Tetreault had middling numbers at Triple-A this year with a 4.19 ERA, 20% K%, 9% BB% and 42% ground ball percentage. The Braves aren’t a minor league team and I expect them to treat Tetreault quite rudely in his first taste of the major leagues.
7. Antonio Senzatela has a 4.90 xFIP
Antonio Senzatela’s xERA is 6.48 this year. He hasn’t been good after showing last year he knew how to pitch at Coors Field with a 3.97 ERA in 15 home starts last year. His last three home starts have all gone poorly as he’s allowed six earned runs or failed to complete five innings in all three starts. Senzatela isn’t striking anyone out this year as he has a 10% K%, which is down from his 15% K% last year. The Guardians are implied to score over six runs here and are one of the best but also one of the most popular stacks on the slate.
