Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than any other sport. These are the seven stats I find most relevant to Friday’s DFS slate.
1. Nick Lodolo has a .346 BABIP allowed
Nick Lodolo is one of the pitchers I’m most interested in using on Friday’s slate. He has a 28% K% and 41% ground ball percentage. There’s a lot to like about this rookie hurler, and he’s been outstanding in three of his last four starts. He’s completed at least six innings while allowing three earned runs or less and recording at least five strikeouts in three of his last four games. His ERA is 3.95, but he’s been unlucky on balls in play as he has a .346 BABIP allowed and the BAT projects him to allow a .305 BABIP for the rest of the season. All nine hitters in the Brewers projected order have a K% above 20% against left-handed pitchers, which only adds to Lodolo’s upside in this matchup.
2. Ross Stripling has a 3.03 ERA
Ross Stripling’s numbers are probably better than you’d expect, as he has a 3.88 xFIP, 22% K%, 4% BB%, and 47% ground ball percentage. Stripling has been very consistent lately as he’s completed at least six innings and allowed three earned runs or less with at least six strikeouts in each of his last four starts. Corey Seager and Marcus Semien are the only hitters in the Rangers’ projected lineup with a K% below 20% against right-handed pitching. The Rangers offense also skews slightly left-handed and Stripling has a slightly higher K% against left-handed hitters (24%), which also adds to the upside for him.
3. Drew Rasmussen has a 1.99 ERA in his last 11 starts
The Yankees offense still has Aaron Judge, but the surrounding cast isn’t what it was earlier in the season. The Yankees offense has tanked in the second half around Judge, who keeps hammering away with 55 home runs. DJ LeMahieu, Anthony Rizzo, Matt Carpenter and Andrew Benintendi are all on the IL and Giancarlo Stanton is not in the starting lineup. Enter Drew Rasmussen, who’s been nearly untouchable since the middle of July. Rasmussen has only completed at least seven innings once all season, which caps his upside and might make it difficult to get him in your main lineup considering he’s more expensive than Lodolo and Stripling on DraftKings. Still, Rasmussen posted games with seven, eight and nine strikeouts in August. The upside for him to have a big strikeout game is still there.
4. Charlie Morton has a 28% K%
Charlie Morton is another arm I have interest in on this slate. The question with four pretty good starting pitching options becomes who do I use the most? Morton might be the pitcher I use the least of these four if I was making multiple lineups for two reasons: he’s the most expensive and facing the Mariners, who have the strongest offense of the four opponents. Morton has a better median and ceiling than every pitcher on the slate besides Lodolo, but I also think he has a better chance of blowing up than Lodolo, Stripling and Rasmussen.
5. Germán Márquez has a 4.67 xFIP
Germán Márquez has allowed a .215 ISO to right-handed hitters and a .193 ISO to left-handed hitters. The Arizona Diamondbacks will bring their heavily left-handed lineup to Coors Field Friday. Christian Walker, Corbin Carroll and Daulton Varsho all have ISOs above .200 against right-handed pitching, though Carroll is a recent call up so he has a small sample size of at-bats. Carroll at $2,900 on DraftKings is one of the best values on the entire slate and the Diamondbacks are definitely one of the top stacks on this slate.
6. Zach Davies has a 5.07 xFIP
The Rockies also make sense to use as a stack here and will be lower rostered than the Diamondbacks. Zach Davies has allowed a .171 ISO to right-handed hitters and that plays to the strengths of C.J. Cron, who has a .217 ISO against right-handed pitchers. Yonathan Daza at $2,700 on DraftKings and batting second is the best value on the Rockies. Ryan McMahon, Brendan Rodgers and Randal Griuchuk are also in play here. The Rockies are an interesting pivot away from the Arizona chalk.
7. Mike Clevinger has a 5.26 xFIP
Mike Clevinger has a 3.96 ERA, but he allowed five earned runs to the Dodgers in 3.1 innings in his last start, which was in Los Angeles. He gets the Dodgers again, but this time it’s at home. He has a 2.97 ERA at home, but has also allowed six home runs at home despite pitching most of his games on the road. The Dodgers are expensive, but we can fit some of them in since we have interest in some of the cheaper pitchers on this slate. Clevinger has allowed a .197 ISO to left-handed hitters. My favorite bats here are Joey Gallo ($3,400 on DraftKings), Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy as each of them have ISOs above .189 against right-handed pitching. The Dodgers are one of my favorite stacks.
