Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Monday 5/6)
MLB Dream
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than any other sport. These are the seven stats I find most relevant to Friday’s DFS slate.
1. Dallas Keuchel has an 8.84 ERA
Dallas Keuchel has been hit for seven earned runs in each of his last two starts, at least six earned runs in three of his last four. I thought after Keuchel allowed seven earned runs to the lowly Tigers in his last start, that he’d pitched his last game ever at the big-league level. Somehow, someway the Rangers have decided to give Keuchel another chance here, and this time it’s against a pretty hot Red Sox team. Rafael Devers notably broke out of his slump Thursday night, and guys like Tommy Pham and Christian Arroyo have been smoking the ball for a while now. Trevor Story is back too, but against Keuchel everyone on the Red Sox is in play here.
2. Yu Darvish has a 4.19 xFIP
Yu Darvish has a 3.41 ERA this year, but his xFIP is almost a run higher. He also has a 4.44 ERA on the road this year compared to 2.29 at home. He gets the Dodgers on the road in Los Angeles. The Dodgers are second in all of baseball averaging 5.41 runs per game at home entering play Friday. The Dodgers have a lot of power in their lineup as Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, Joey Gallo and Cody Bellinger all have ISOs above .195 against right-handed pitching. Darvish has allowed just a .137 ISO to right-handed batters and .101 ISO to left-handed batters.
3. Davis Martin has a 5.44 xFIP
Davis Martin has a 16% K% and 8% BB%. He’s made five starts for the White Sox this season, and he’s completed six innings only once. Martin lasted only three innings against the Diamondbacks in his last start. He allowed five runs (three earned) and walked four batters. The pricing on the Twins is really good, as only Carlos Correa and Luis Arraez are priced over $4,000 on DraftKings. Nick Gordon is the best value play at $2,200, but Max Kepler, Jose Miranda and Gary Sánchez are all under $3,500 and in play here as well.
4. Drew Hutchison has a 5.66 xFIP
Drew Hutchison has a 4.01 ERA, but he’s terrible. He has a 14% K% and 10% BB%. His ISO allowed to left-handed hitters is .197. Hutchison also hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in a start since the end of July, but I think he’s due. MJ Melendez has a .169 ISO against right-handed pitching this year. Nick Pratto has a .255 ISO against right-handed pitching. Those are the two lefty bats I would focus on getting in there against Hutchison, but everyone is in play here. Hutchison has a 4.35 ERA, 1.62 WHIP and 5.01 xFIP at home.
5. Jordan Montgomery has a 1.76 ERA in five starts with the Cardinals
Jordan Montgomery has been invincible since going over to St. Louis at the trade deadline. His most impressive outing was the complete game shutout against the Cubs at historic Wrigley Field, the first of his career. He gets to face the Cubs once again here, only this time he’ll do it at home where the Cardinals are 42-22 (.656 WP). The Cardinals run differential at home? +92. It’s baseball and anything can happen, but I’d be stunned if Montgomery didn’t have another good performance here.
6. Dustin May faced 23 batters in his last start
Dustin May is quite possibly the best pitcher on this slate. I know he’s expensive at $10,100, and just based on his two starts where he went five and six innings, he might not have the real upside to pitch deep into the game. Still, I’m a sucker for May and the ungodly stuff he possesses. In his first start he only went five innings, but he was able to shutout the Marlins for five innings and record nine strikeouts. He’s not going to get bombed, but he’s also unlikely to pitch the seventh inning. Nobody is going to play so I think there’s an opportunity for leverage if you’re making multiple lineups.
7. Luis Castillo has a 27% K%
Don’t look now, but the Guardians have been shut out each of the last two days by Orioles’ starting pitchers Jordan Lyles and Kyle Bradish. Luis Castillo is a significantly more talented pitcher than either of them. He has a 2.85 ERA and 3.61 xFIP. He’s struck out at least nine batters in two of his last three starts and has at least seven strikeouts in seven of his last eight starts. The Guardians are mostly a good offense, and they don’t strike out a lot, but it seems like Castillo is catching them at the right time. The Mariners, like the Orioles, are another team still fighting for the playoffs and they’ll want to win this game as badly as the Guardians do.
