Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than any other sport. These are the five stats I find most relevant to Thursday’s DFS slate.
1. JP Sears has a 5.21 xFIP
It looks like the White Sox are going to be the chalk offense the field will stack on Thursday’s three-game slate. That doesn’t make the most sense to me looking over the projections and JP Sears’ recent game log. Sears has completed at least five innings and allowed no more than three earned runs in each of his last five starts. The White Sox are 18th in all of baseball averaging 4.22 runs per game on the road this season and the field prefers to stack them in Oakland? This is a small slate, and Sears is the most inexperienced pitcher on the slate by far so it’s understandable in that sense that the field wants to pick on him, but that doesn’t make them the right play necessarily.
2. Kyle Gibson has allowed a .163 ISO to left-handed hitters
Kyle Gibson is the other cheap pitcher on this slate beside Sears. The difference is Gibson will be one of the three most-rostered pitchers on this slate whereas Sears will carry close to zero rostership. That makes me more interested in stacking or at least using one hitter against Gibson here. JJ Bleday makes the most sense to me at $2,200 on DraftKings. Bleday has a .183 ISO against right-handed pitching. Garrett Cooper and Brian Anderson are also potentially in play here at sub-$3,000 price tags on DraftKings.
3. Dylan Cease has faced 77 batters in his last three starts and allowed six hits
Dylan Cease is going to be the super chalk of this slate, but I think you just play him. He’s been fantastic this year and is in the midst of making a push for the Cy Young Award with Justin Verlander still on the injured list. It’s a great matchup for Cease with the ballpark upgrade going to Oakland. The Athletics are dead last in all of baseball averaging 2.94 runs per game at home. Cease has been better on the road with a 1.38 ERA compared to 2.39 at home. I’d rather play Cease chalk than White Sox hitter chalk on this slate for sure.
4. The Yankees are 111-31 against the Twins since 2002
Don’t look now, but the Yankees have been beating up the Twins again. Former Yankee Sonny Gray hasn’t pitched well in New York in the past. Gray has a 4.45 xFIP. His numbers against right-handed hitters are worse as he has a 21% K% and 9% BB% against right-handed hitters compared to a 26% K% and 5% BB% against left-handed hitters. That bodes poorly for Gray against the Yankees with all of their right-handed hitters like Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, DJ LeMahieu, Jose Trevino and Gleyber Torres. The Yankees are my pivot stack away from the White Sox.
5. Nestor Cortes has allowed a .155 ISO to right-handed batters
The Yankees are going to win this game, like I mentioned already. Nestor Cortes stands to benefit from that obviously, as he comes off the injured to make this start. If I were making multiple lineups, it’s possible that I get to Cortes here, but in my main lineup where I’m not using him, I can see getting some Twins here. Kyle Garlick, Carlos Correa and Jose Miranda each have ISOs above .200 against left-handed pitching. Gary Sánchez hit a 473-foot home run earlier in this series and could be moved up in the lineup here, so he’s also in play as a cheap catcher. Minnesota is 12th in all of baseball with a 4.5 runs per game average on the road. Yankees Stadium is a hitters’ park and Cortes is unlikely to work very deep into the game in his first start back from injury, so I also like the Twins more than the White Sox here.
