Diamond Data -- 5 Stats to Know for MLB DFS Thursday (6/2)

Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than any other sport. These are the seven stats I find most relevant to Thursday’s DFS slate.

1. Austin Gomber has allowed a .189 ISO to right-handed batters since the start of last year

There were two wild games at Coors Field Wednesday, as the Rockies lost 14-1 in the first game before beating the Marlins 13-12 in the second. Seems like hitting weather is in full effect in Colorado. The Braves have scored at least six runs in their last two games against the Diamondbacks in Arizona and have to be licking their chops in anticipation of the matchup with Austin Gomber at Coors Field. Gomber’s home ERA was 2.09 last year, but that success hasn’t carried over to this season as his home ERA is over 4.00 this year. His xFIP is 4.66 and he has a 17% K% and 8% BB% this year. The Braves absolutely have the hitting to take advantage of this matchup as Ronald Acuña Jr., Dansby Swanson, Austin Riley and William Contreras all have ISOs above .200 against left-handed pitching this season. Atlanta is going to be the most popular stack on this slate, but they have to be. This is too good of a spot. Two hitters that might go overlooked for Atlanta are Matt Olson and Adam Duvall. While neither has an ISO above .200 against left-handed pitching this year, both of them do if we extend that sample to the beginning of last year. Olsen’s ISO against left-handed pitching since the beginning of last year is actually .313, which is out of this world. Duvall’s is .218, but he’s the cheapest hitter in the Braves’ lineup at $2,600 on DraftKings.

2. Sean Manaea has struck out at least five batters in every start this year

Sean Manaea might not hit value given his $9,700 price tag on DraftKings if he only strikes out five batters, but that’s the type of consistency we like to see from a high-priced starter. Manaea’s K% is 27% against right-handed batters this year, and the Brewers project to have seven right-handed hitters in the lineup. The Brewers also have just three hitters projected to be in Thursday’s lineup with a K% below 20% against left-handed pitching this year. Milwaukee has the third-lowest implied team run total on the slate. Manaea is my top pitcher in the expensive tier as he’s the cash game SP1 on DraftKings.

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3. Taijuan Walker has a 5.08 xFIP this year

The Dodgers are coming off a series loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates at home, but we should still have interest in them as a stack against Tajuan Walker here. Walker has a 2.83 ERA this season, but his xFIP is over 5.00. He’s been lucky and is due for regression. Walker has allowed a .148 ISO to left-handed batters this year and Freddie Freeman and Cody Bellinger have ISOs of at least .180 against right-handed pitching this year. Against right-handed batters, Walker has a 9% K% and 6% BB% this year. His saving grace has been the ground balls as Walker has a 53% ground ball percentage this year. Since the beginning of last year, Mookie Betts and Will Smith each have ISOs above .200 and fly ball percentages above 44% against right-handed pitching. Unlike the last few days against the Pirates, the Dodgers won’t be the super chalk on this slate, and I think they breakout of their funk a bit here at home. Fire up the Dodgers as my No. 2 stack on the slate.

4. Chris Flexen has a 5.53 xFIP

Last year, Chris Flexen had a 3.61 ERA in 31 starts for the Mariners, but his xFIP was over 5.00. It’s a new year, but pretty much the same story for Flexen as his ERA is 4.47 and his xFIP is once again over 5.00. Unlike the other two pitchers I’ve mentioned for stacking against (Gomber and Walker), Flexen’s ground ball percentage is below 40% at 38% this season. The Orioles moved the fences back in left field at Camden Yards, but I think Baltimore could have a couple hitters clear the fences in left here. Flexen has allowed a .211 ISO to right-handed hitters this season and Austin Hays and Ryan Mountcastle each have ISOs of at least .174 against right-handed pitching this season. Rougned Odor is a left-handed hitter, but they didn’t move the fences back in right field and he leads the Orioles with a .192 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. Odor also hit a three-run home run last night. Odor and Mountcastle are each sub $3,000 on DraftKings tonight and I think they make a nice pair. You can easily round out a secondary Orioles stack with Hays, who is $3,700 on DraftKings. Any Orioles you play tonight will be contrarian as it looks like Flexen is projecting to carry significant rostership as a cheap pitcher on DraftKings. Even if you don’t ultimately end up on any Orioles in your lineup, I think Flexen is an easy fade.

5. Tony Gonsolin has a 1.80 ERA

Tony Gonsolin has been tremendous this year. The Dodgers clearly limited him in his first four starts of the season as he went deeper than four innings just once in his first four starts. Since then, he’s completed at least five innings, struck out at least five batters and allowed no more than two earned runs in five straight starts. That’ll play. The only thing that gives me some pause with using Gonsolin here is the matchup with the Mets, who are the best offense he’ll have faced this season. The Mets have quite a few left-handed bats in the lineup and Gonsolin has allowed more power against left-handed hitters this year as his ISO allowed to lefties is .153 compared to .069 against right-handed hitters. Still, I think we can expect Gonsolin to pitch pretty well here and work at least 5-6 innings. I also expect the Dodgers to win this game so if you can fit Gonsolin with a Dodgers primary stack or secondary stack that makes a lot of sense here.