Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than any other sport. These are the five stats I find most relevant to Thursday’s DFS slate.
1. Luis Severino has a 28.9% K%
Luis Severino also has a 2.80 ERA on the season, but I’m focused on the strikeouts here. He’s struck out at least 10 batters in each of his last two starts. Three starts ago against these same Tampa Bay Rays on the road, Severino struck out eight batters. The Rays’ offense is still without infielders Brandon Lowe and Wander Franco. Tampa Bay has just three hitters in their projected lineup with a K% below 20% against right-handed pitching this season. Severino is my top pitcher on the main slate at $9,400 on DraftKings.
2. George Kirby has a 20% K%-BB%
George Kirby has recorded 35 strikeouts compared to just four walks in his first seven starts at the big-league level. It’s worked for him so far as he has a 3.65 ERA. His xFIP is slightly higher at 4.21 and he’s allowed a .304 ISO to right-handed batters, which is especially troubling against a lineup with Mike Trout and Taylor Ward, who each have ISOs above .300 against right-handed pitching this season. Still, this game has one of the lower totals on the slate as the Angels are implied to score less than four runs here. At $6,500 on DraftKings, I think Kirby is clearly the best value SP2 on the main slate.
3. Shohei Ohtani has a 31% K%
Shohei Ohtani was brilliant in his last start when the Angels really needed him as he threw seven quality innings against the Boston Red Sox and ended Los Angeles’ losing streak. He’s been pretty good all season as he has a 3.64 ERA. While the Mariners have just four hitters in their projected lineup with a K% above 20% against right-handed pitching this season, Ohtani is a big-time strikeout pitcher who has had success against Seattle in the past. Ohtani hasn’t faced the Mariners yet this season, but he faced them twice last year and recorded 10 strikeouts in each start. His price on DraftKings is still too low at $8,200 tonight. I expect Ohtani to be popular, but he’s still my second-favorite pitcher overall on the slate after Severino.
4. Patrick Corbin has a 6.65 ERA
Patrick Corbin has allowed at least three earned runs in six consecutive starts and he’s allowed eight home runs in that stretch. He’s also allowed a .240 ISO to right-handed batters this season and righties Rhys Hoskins and Nick Castellanos each have ISOs above .200 against left-handed pitching this season. The Phillies are the top stack on the slate as they have a good matchup in a good ballpark for hitters with good weather conditions for hitting. Philadelphia is the only team on the slate with a Vegas-implied team run total above five runs so you can expect them to be the most popular stack on the slate as well.
5. Beau Brieske has a 6.40 xERA
Beau Brieske has pitched OK in his first taste of the major leagues this year. He has a 4.34 ERA, 5.49 xFIP, 15% K%, 7% BB% and 39% ground ball percentage. It’s not a flashy profile, but Brieske can get by and that’s exactly what he did in his last two starts against the Yankees and the Blue Jays. Both of those teams are very right-handed heavy, though, and that isn’t the case for the Rangers. Brieske will have to rely more on his changeup and curveball against left-handed hitters and that should play to the advantage of Corey Seager, Jonah Heim, Nathaniel Lowe and Brad Miller. The Rangers have the second-highest implied team run total on the slate so they should also be one of the more popular stacks Thursday. I like Leody Taveras at $2,000 on DraftKings as a way to get different.
