Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than any other sport. These are the five stats I find most relevant to Monday’s slate.
1. Justin Dunn has a career 6.05 xFIP in the major leagues
Justin Dunn will make his 2022 debut at Citi Field against the Mets tonight. New York is eighth in all of baseball averaging 4.83 runs per game at home. His ERA was 6.92 in seven starts with Triple-A, and he allowed four home runs in 26 innings (1.38 HR/9). The Mets have four hitters in their lineup with an ISO above .200 against right-handed pitching this season in Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, Daniel Vogelbach and Tyler Naquin. Vogelbach batting fifth at $3,700 on DraftKings is the best value you’ll find here. The Mets are fairly expensive and still one of the top stacks on the slate.
2. Yusei Kikuchi has a 4.15 ERA in his last four starts
A 4.15 ERA isn’t even particularly good, but it was difficult to find a stat for Yusei Kikuchi, who hasn’t been good this year. Still, he has been showing some signs of life lately, as he’s struck out at least five and allowed two earned runs or less in three of his last four starts. We all know he has legitimate strikeout upside with a 25% K rate. He has 18 strikeouts in 17.1 innings over his last four starts, but he hasn’t been pitching deep into games. He’s gone four and five innings in his last two starts, but on June 30, he went six innings and struck out eight batters. Kikuchi is really cheap at $6,800 on DraftKings against an Orioles team that has a 25% K rate combined against left-handed pitching.
3. Jordan Lyles has a 5.16 xFIP
Like the Mets, the Blue Jays are an obvious and expensive stack to use on this slate. The value play I want to highlight here is Cavan Biggio, who is $2,700 on DraftKings. Biggio is the lone left-handed hitter in the Jays lineup, and Lyles has allowed a .234 ISO to left-handed batters compared to a .117 ISO against right-handed batters. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Matt Chapman and Danny Jansen all have ISOs above .200 against right-handed pitching. Teoscar Hernández remains the most underpriced Blue Jay at $4,600, and he has a .198 ISO against right-handed pitching.
4. Tyler Beede has a 5.38 xFIP
The Diamondbacks typically pop up as a stack that I’m interested in using when the opposing pitcher struggles against left-handed hitters, given Arizona’s heavily left-handed lineup. That is the case on Monday. Tyler Beede has allowed just a .115 ISO to left-handed batters this year, but his 59% ground-ball percentage against right-handed hitters is almost irrelevant when analyzing this matchup. There might be one or two right-handed hitters in the lineup at most. Beede’s 13% K rate is low against any hitter, and left-handed hitters are hitting it on a line more (29% LD% against lefties compared to 22% against righties) as well as in the air more (33% FB% against lefties compared to 17% against righties). Daulton Varsho is my favorite bat here at $4,100 on DraftKings. He has a .235 ISO against right-handed pitchers. For value, Seth Beer is minimum priced.
5. Chris Bassitt has a 2.52 ERA over his last eight starts
Chris Bassitt also has a 3.06 ERA at home compared to 4.24 when pitching away from Citi Field. At $9,300 on DraftKings, Bassitt is the most expensive pitcher on the slate, but of the top three tonight, he might end up being my favorite. This Mets team is a machine. They’re 35-18 at home, 8-2 over their last 10 games and just took four out of five from the Braves. The Reds, 27th in all of baseball averaging 3.43 runs per game on the road entering play Monday, are going to stop this train? I really doubt it.
