Crossed Up: July’s Trending Players (7/24)

It’s hard to believe that it’s already nearing the end of July and the 2024 fantasy baseball season is two-thirds over and entering the stretch run. If you’re still enjoying and reading the phenomenal content we have here at FTN, I’m assuming you’re still in the running in your redraft/dynasty leagues or looking to improve your roster if you’ve fallen out of contention in a dynasty league. There’s never a bad time to improve your roster and making decisions one way or another on trending players certainly factors into that.

In this week’s Crossed Up, I’ll be digging into four trending players here in July to see if their performances are legit and how they should be valued moving forward. Should we buy in? Buy low? Sell high? Let’s discuss.

Colt Keith, 2B/3B, Detroit Tigers

If you drafted and rostered Colt Keith earlier this season, you probably weren’t overly happy with the results. Let’s be honest, you were probably pretty pissed off as Keith was slashing .154/.222/.165 at the end of April and didn’t hit his first home run until May 24, his 44^th game. However, outside of those early-season scuffles, Keith has shown that he has the offensive abilities and upside to be a top-10 second baseman for fantasy purposes.

Starting with his four-hit game May 17, Keith has slashed .301/.356/.522 over his last 202 plate appearances with 10 home runs, 28 RBIs and 30 runs scored. While Keith will never be a major source of power, he’s always demonstrated at least average raw power and is currently around league average in the barrel rate and hard hit rate departments.

But for Keith to be a top-10 second baseman, he doesn’t necessarily need massive power production. Even as a 20- to 25-homer bat, Keith could cement his top-10 status given his elite contact metrics. Keith is running an 88% zone contact rate and 78.2% overall contact rate currently, which is impressive given the early-season struggles.

What we’ve seen from Keith over the last two months is legit, and he needs to be considered a top-100 player moving forward, or at least in that discussion.

Lawrence Butler, OF, Oakland Athletics

At the end of June, Lawrence Butler was slashing an unimpressive .179/.260/.269 and was probably on the waiver wire in 98% of redraft leagues or more. However, since the calendar flipped to July, Butler has turned into a fantasy stud, slashing .417/.470/.950 with eight home runs, two steals, 24 RBIs and 16 runs scored in 18 games and 66 plate appearances. Who had Lawrence Butler leading July with a 294 wRC+ on their 2024 MLB bingo card? I sure didn’t.

When you pop the hood, the first thing you’ll notice are the impressive quality of contact metrics. Butler is currently running a 12.5% barrel rate, 92.4 mph AVG EV and 50% hard-hit rate along with a 37.5% sweet spot rate. While he never had massive home run totals in the minors, Butler consistently flexed his above-average to plus power, so this part of his profile is certainly legit. Butler is also a solid runner that should add 15-plus steals annually as well.

The one part I’m not believing in is him hitting for a higher AVG. Butler’s contact skills are below average with a 77.4% zone and 70.9% overall contact rate. However, those aren’t terrible by any means and Butler could settle in as a .250-.260 hitter. The upside is here to be a Top-100 player moving forward, so holding Butler would be a wise decision. But at the same time, I wouldn’t fault anyone for trying to sell high right now while his perceived value is soaring.

Brenton Doyle, OF, Colorado Rockies

I’m a bit surprised I haven’t discussed Brenton Doyle yet in Crossed Up this season. In the month of July, Doyle ranks fourth in wOBA and wRC+ and tied for first in home runs with nine while slashing .373/.440/.866. It hasn’t just been a recent hot stretch either — Doyle has been excelling all season for Colorado but still doesn’t get as much buzz and hype as he should.

Coming into the season, Doyle was a fun pick in the 400 ADP range given his locked-in starting spot and him coming off a 10-homer/22-steal season in 431 plate appearances in 2023. But even the biggest Doyle supporter couldn’t have predicted the breakout we’ve seen from him so far in 2024. In 399 plate appearances, Doyle is slashing .276/.339/.470 with 57 runs, 16 home runs, 46 RBIs and 20 steals. That’s a full season pace of around 90 runs, 25 home runs, 75 RBIs and 32 steals.

Doyle has posted above average quality of contact metrics with a 10.9% barrel rate, 89.2 mph AVG EV, and 42.3% hard-hit rate while recording a 94^th percentile sprint speed as well. But while those are impressive, those aren’t the metrics I’m the most encouraged by right now. Doyle has made major strides as a pure hitter this season.

The fact that Doyle has improved considerably in those seven important metrics above is highly encouraging to me that his performance this season is legitimate and can stick moving forward. If these improvements we’ve seen from Doyle across the board stick moving forward, he’ll easily be a Top 100 player and probably in the top-50 overall discussion.

Bryson Stott, 2B/SS, Philadelphia Phillies

While the first three players I’ve discussed have been red hot here in July, that hasn’t been the case for Bryson Stott. In 59 July plate appearances, Stott is slashing .204/.254/.278 with 1 home run, 5 runs, 4 RBIs and 3 steals. It’s gotten so bad that he’s been permanently parked on my bench in my home keeper league and the thought of dropping him has even crossed my mind. I’m not sure we’re at the point where dropping him becomes reality, but it’s been a rough 2024 for Stott all-around, not just here in July.

In 363 plate appearances this season, Stott has slashed a lackluster .236/.322/.345 with 44 runs, six home runs, 42 RBIs and 23 steals. While it’s great that Stott is still providing plenty of steals and is even on pace for more than he had in 2023, his lack of impact at the plate has been felt by anyone who drafted him this spring or rosters him in a keeper/dynasty league.

It’s not like Stott has a significant power source last season with impressive quality of contact metrics, by the was just slightly below league average for AVG EV and hard-hit rate while providing 15 home runs. But in 2024, Stott has seen his barrel rate drop from 4.7% to 3.4%, his AVG EV drop from 88.1 mph to 86.4 mph, and his hard-hit rate drop from 35.2% to 29.4%.

That drop in quality of contact has been the main source of Stott’s struggles this season as the rest of his profile is fairly in like with last season. Stott is still running impressive contact rates (87.1% zone, 83.3% overall) while only striking out 16% of the time and walking at a career-best 11% clip. Even with the dip in QoC, Stott should see his .236 AVG tick back up moving forward.

I’d be fine buying low right now if the price has dipped enough, but I’m not expecting a return to Top 100 value unless Stott can impact the ball more. And given his 5^th percentile bat speed, that’s far from a certainty. Stott has also been sitting against southpaws lately in favor of Edmundo Sosa, which doesn’t help.