Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
We’re diving back into the world of rookies again in this week’s edition of Crossed Up. After discussing notable rookie hitter standouts last week, we head over to the mound today to discuss five rookie arms making waves this season. I’ve decided to not discuss Paul Skenes since he was the No. 1 pitching prospect entering this season for many and performing as expected.
2024 Rookie Pitchers
Luis Gil, New York Yankees
Let’s start with one of the biggest pitching breakouts of the 2024 season so far, Luis Gil. Despite debuting way back in 2021, Gil was still prospect eligible entering 2024 and now finds himself as one of the frontrunners for the American League Cy Young Award. In 14 starts and 80 innings so far, Gil has posted a stellar 2.03 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 30.4% strikeout rate. On top of that, Gil ranks in the top 10% of pitchers in xERA, xBA, xSLG, xwOBA and xwOBACON this season.
With Gil, there’s a wide range of thoughts regarding his value moving forward and how legit his performance has been. I’ve seen some say he’s a top-10 dynasty SP and others say he’s the biggest sell high in baseball right now. I’m more in the middle of this Gil spectrum but lean more toward the positive end.
Do I think Gil is a top-10 pitcher? No. But his performance this season hasn’t been entirely fluky either. As mentioned, Gil has a 2.75 xERA to go along with a 3.07 FIP, 3.75 xFIP and 3.72 SIERA. He also has a minuscule .194 BABIP. So yeah, some regression is likely going to happen over the next few months. But that doesn’t mean Gil can’t still be a valuable fantasy arm. All three of his offerings currently have an xBA under .200 and a whiff rate above 25%, and he has only allowed five home runs total.
While he might not be a fantasy ace moving forward, and I wouldn’t be opposed to selling high in general, I still believe Gil can be a top-25 caliber SP moving forward.
Jared Jones, Pittsburgh Pirates
Another big breakout pitching prospect this season has been Jared Jones, but the rookie right-hander has seen his production fall off lately after a hot start. Through his first seven starts, Jones had a 2.63 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 3.2% walk rate and a 33.8% strikeout rate. But over his last seven starts, Jones has posted a 4.97 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 10.1% walk rate and 19.5% strikeout rate. In the words of Eminem, will the real Jared Jones please stand up?
Given the stark differences between his first seven starts and last seven starts, figuring out where to value Jones moving forward is tricky. On one hand, Jones has an impressive fastball/slider combination, and the slider especially has been effective with a .185 BAA and 38.7% whiff rate. However, Jones has already allowed seven home runs off his four-seamer and 12 total. He’s also yet to establish a legitimate third offering, which is my biggest concern at the moment. Jones has used his changeup and curveball 7.5% and 7% respectively this season, but the results on both have been terrible to say the least.
If Jones wants to be a top-25 starting pitcher moving forward, he’s going to have to establish a decent third offering. If he can, that level is certainly attainable. If not, he’s probably more of a back-end top-50 pitcher who is inconsistent month to month, week to week and start to start.
Ben Brown, Chicago Cubs
After a 2023 season where a 14.3% walk rate dulled the shine on Ben Brown’s prospect hype a bit, he has rebounded nicely here in 2024. In eight starts and seven relief appearances with the Cubs, Brown has posted a 3.58 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 28.8% strikeout rate across 55.1 innings. Given the injuries and poor performances the Cubs have had from various starters and relievers, Brown’s emergence has been huge. But should he be someone we’re investing in moving forward?
Yes and no.
While I think there will be value here moving forward, I don’t believe it will be in the rotation. Brown is a two-pitch arm, combining to throw his four-seamer and knuckle curve 98.4% of the time with only a sporadic changeup to left-handed batters. He also dealt with command and control issues in the minors as mentioned above. But with all that said, I do think Brown could settle in as a late-inning weapon with his 96.4 mph fastball and elite knuckle curve which has a .141 BAA, .294 SLG and 51% whiff rate so far this season.
Shota Imanaga, Chicago Cubs
Let’s keep this right in the Windy City and talk about Shota Imanaga. In 13 starts this season, Imanaga has recorded an impressive 1.89 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and a 22.2% K-BB rate. While Imanaga had some hype coming over from Japan, I don’t think anyone expected him to dominate like this. In 12 of his 13 starts so far, Imanaga has allowed two earned runs or less with only one blowup outing against the Milwaukee Brewers on May 29. Those who drafted him have been rewarded in spades, as Imanaga has been a top-10 fantasy starting pitcher so far this season.
I’m not one who believes the top-10 value will continue, but there’s plenty to like in Imanaga’s profile. Imanaga works primarily with his four-seamer and splitter, which he uses a combined 88.6% of the time. Both offerings have a BAA under .230, xSLG under .340 and his splitter has a whiff rate of 43.8%. Imanaga’s sweeper is only used 7% of the time, primarily to left-handed batters, but that offering has a 37.8% whiff rate as well.
Imanaga will never blow anyone away with a four-seamer that averages 91.8 mph, but the pitch is deceptive due to its shape and Imanaga’s command of it, so it should remain a good pitch moving forward. Even if Imanaga regresses to a 3.00 ERA guy to match many of his ERA indicators, he should still be valued as a top 30-40 pitcher moving forward. Not an ace, but a high floor SP2/3 for fantasy depending on your league size.
Orion Kerkering, Philadelphia Phillies
Let’s close out this article with a possible elite closer in the making in Orion Kerkering. If you lowered the innings pitched threshold to 20, Kerkering would rank seventh in strikeout rate and sixth in K-BB rate among all rookie pitchers this season. Overall, Kerkering has recorded a 1.40 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 6.1% walk rate and a 29.3% strikeout rate across 25.2 innings this season. There’s a lot of red in his profile as well, which should have everyone very encouraged about rostering him moving forward.
Kerkering currently ranks in the top 11% of pitchers in xERA, xBA, AVG EV allowed, strikeout rate, hard-hit rate and ground-ball rate. On top of that, he’s continued to show above-average command and control, posting a 6.1% walk rate this season after a 5.1% mark in the minors. There are only eight pitchers to rank in the 75th percentile or higher in hard-hit rate, walk rate and strikeout rate, and Kerkering is one of them
Kerkering checks off many boxes for what I look for in a future elite closer. He can miss bats, limits hard-contact, generates plenty of ground balls and keeps his walk rate low as an added bonus.
