Prime-Time Props — Thursday Night Football, Week 1
Prop God
With players around Major League Baseball taking a much-needed break for the All-Star Game, it’s time for our eyes to look ahead to the second half of the MLB season. To that end, here are five players to watch for the rest of the season when trying to put together your bets.
Buy Ryan McMahon
Look, I’ll be the first to tell you — I don’t have a friggin’ clue what the Rockies are going to do, other than I would imagine that they are going to be sellers, and not buyers. But I don’t really know what that means for Ryan McMahon, who is on a club friendly contract ($2.375M) and is still club-controlled for two more seasons. But here’s one thing I can share with you — there’s some pop in that bat, and it’s going to show up fast. McMahon’s 97 wRC+ indicates he’s a slightly below average hitter in the league, but there’s some underlying metrics that scream he’s about to soar — his 42.6% hard-hit rate is fourth-best amongst 136 qualified hitters in the game, and his .305 BABIP shows he could have room for growth. If he’s available, give him a long look.
Sell Adam Frazier
2B/OF Adam Frazier was one of baseball’s best stories in the first half — he’s been a darling of the fantasy baseball community, clocking in with a 136 wRC+ thanks to a .330 batting average in the first half. But buyer beware — his .366 BABIP mark would be the best of his career, and his 23.4% hard-hit rate is one of the lowest marks in the league. This Pirates offense has been a bit plucky thanks to these veterans and the solid play of Ke’Bryan Hayes, but I wouldn’t expect this run of form to sustain.
Sell Trevor Rogers
There’s not a bigger Trevor Rogers stan than me. I drafted him at a dirt-cheap price in nearly every fantasy league I could. Even then, I’d be lying if I told you I thought he’d be this brilliant, leading to an All-Star bid. Over 101.1 innings, the southpaw has recorded 10.84 K/9, a 2.31 ERA and a 30.0% strikeout rate. That’s some goodness — but there are some red warning lights flashing in the Bentley. His 77.6% strand rate also sits well above the league average. Meanwhile, his 5.9% HR/FB ratio is the second lowest among all qualified hurlers, with only Nathan Eovaldi’s 5.4% better. That’s just flat lucky. As a professional, the lefty’s high-water mark in innings in a single season is 110.1 IP, so there could be a wall he hits soon.
Buy Kyle Hendricks
OK, this has officially turned into the Kyle Hendricks fan club, and I am the president. Many of you rightfully may have jumped ship early on, and boy was it ugly then. But quietly, the dude has been flat-out ballin’ — since the calendar flipped to May, Hendricks is a whopping 10-1 with a 2.73 ERA over 82.1 innings. So what’s the deal? Hendricks hemorrhaged home runs at an egregious rate in April, and since then, they’ve calmed to a respectable 1.06 HR/9. His HR/FB ratio is still inflated (16.90%), but he’s cleared solved the long ball issue. In fantasy, if you have a leaguemate willing to deal him, buy.
Hold Robbie Ray
Look y’all, I am not sure if you have witnessed the beauty of Robbie Ray’s pants, but they are truly a sight to behold. Besides that, the lefty has given the Jays a solid 1-2 punch, along with Hyun Jin Ryu, to make them quite formidable. But I don’t think anyone saw this coming — a 3.13 ERA over 100.2 innings, 11.62 K/9 and seven wins. That’s the good. The bad is some conflicting information — his strand rate of 90.0% is the highest mark among any qualified starter (league average hovers around 70%). His 41.6% ground-ball rate is pretty mediocre. I’m standing pat here, and while there are plenty of reasons to have some mild concern, there’s also a massive fantasy asset here.
