Best MLB Bets Today - Free (Wednesday 5/31)

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

Tampa Bay Rays @ Chicago Cubs

Rays -130 @ Cubs +110 — Total 8.5 (BetMGM)

After spending a night with the worst record in the National League, the Cubs have won the first two games of a three-game set against the Tampa Bay Rays. The two clubs face off at Wrigley Wednesday afternoon before a day off Thursday, and I think the Cubs’ short win streak ends here.

Zach Eflin has been one of Tampa’s best pitchers this season, posting a 3.37 SIERA, even better than their ace Shane McClanahan’s 3.74. Through 54 innings, Eflin has posted the best swinging-strike percentage of his career at 11% and the second-best strikeout percentage at 24.6%. Along with his great chase rate, the righty has shown elite control with a walk rate in the 97th percentile. I expect the 29-year-old to shove today in the Windy City. At the dish, the Cubs have had much better success against lefties than righties. They’ve been exactly average against right-handed pitching this year with a 100 wRC+ — which ranks 16th in baseball.

On the bump for the Cubs is lefty Justin Steele, who has posted a career-best 2.77 ERA through 11 starts in 2023. Steele’s numbers indicate some regression coming with a 4.06 SIERA, and the Bat projects him for a 4.39 ERA the rest of the way. This will be the southpaw’s biggest test of the season as Tampa has the best wRC+ against left-handed pitching at 166 – 66% above league average. The Rays have been even better in the month of May, smashing lefties with a wRC+ of 179 and a batting average over .300.

I don’t love the fact Rays manager Kevin Cash has given Wander Franco the day off — the superstar has a 200 wRC+ against lefties this year but this Rays offense should still have enough firepower to pull out the win. Be sure to check out FTN’s Live Odds screen to find the best number on the market.