Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
It’s Wednesday in Major League Baseball, which means day baseball throughout the day, as well as a tasty night slate. Below, we’ll be focusing on one of the night games.
As always, odds can fluctuate, so be sure to head over to the Prop Shop to ensure you grab the best possible number.
Angels F5 Moneyline
+102, FanDuel Sportsbook
You might be thinking, “What, is this guy crazy for backing the Angels?!?” Well, let’s discuss my thoughts regarding this play. To begin, these two teams played a series in Anaheim last week. Any time teams match up twice in a span of a week, my first thought is “Did either starting pitcher make a start in the previous series?” Angels probable starter Reid Detmers did not, as he started April 12 to open the series in Boston. On the other hand, Rays probable starter Zack Littell did start the final game of that series, lasting just 4.1 innings, surrendering six hits, three walks and one run.
I have long been a believer in the sentiment that any starting pitcher seeing a lineup two consecutive times through the rotation is a massive red flag, as opposing hitters should pick up on the ball early and often, considering they had just seen said starter just a few days prior. While the Angels lineup, beyond Mike Trout isn’t going to intimidate anyone, this is a lineup that ranks in the top half of baseball in ISO and wRC+ versus right-handed pitching, as well as second in that split in hard hit rate (35.3%).
As far as Detmers goes, the Angels southpaw has turned in an excellent 1.04 ERA, 1.46 FIP and 40.6% Strikeout Rate through his first three starts in 2024. Additionally, albeit in a small sample, his Chase Rate has increased by 3% from last season thus far, while his whiff rate is up 10% from 2023. The Rays rank 10th in strikeout rate, 18th in wOBA, 23rd in ISO and 14th in wRC+ versus left-handed pitching so far in 2024. With that said, I see some value in grabbing the Angels over the first half of the game, so I’ll grab the Halos at +102 on the First 5 Inning moneyline.
