Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We made it through another offseason, as the 2024 MLB regular season begins in South Korea Wednesday, with the Dodgers and Padres facing off in a two-game set. An international affair means Dodgers and Padres fans are going to have to get up at 3 a.m. local time to watch their squads, while us on the East Coast will be enjoying the first pitch with a cup of coffee at 6 a.m. The NL West clubs will be playing at the Gocheok SkyDome, alternate home-field advantage in the two-game series.
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (Seoul South Korea
Game 1: Dodgers @ Padres
Dodgers -205 @ Padres +180 – Total 8.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Dodgers opened as -198 favorites with newly acquired ace Tyler Glasnow (3.53 ERA, 2.91 FIP last season) on the bump facing Yu Darvish (4.56 ERA, 3.03 FIP last season). The market has seen some Dodgers money come in as well as some money on the over, as the total of 8.5 is juiced to -122. As Glasnow makes his Dodgers debut, Darvish makes his third opening day start for the Padres.
Game 2: Padres @ Dodgers
Padres +140 @ Dodgers -166 – Total 8.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Dodgers are a decent favorite in Game 2 as well, as Yoshinobu Yamamoto makes his MLB and Dodgers debut. The three-time Pacific League MVP previously played in Nippon Professional Baseball Organization for the Orix Buffaloes. He faces off against Joe Musgrove, who battled a number of injuries in 2023.
Lineups
Lineups aren’t released yet, but it’s safe to expect the NL West rivals to feature their standard lineups against right-handed pitching in both games of the series. The Dodgers scored the second-most runs a game last year at 5.53, while the Padres’ 4.64 runs ranked 13th. We should see something very similar to these lineups for both games:
Dodgers
- Mookie Betts, SS
- Shohei Ohtani, DH
- Freddie Freeman, 1B
- Will Smith, C
- Max Muncy, 3B
- Teoscar Hernández, LF
- James Outman, CF
- Jason Heyward, RF
- Gavin Lux, 2B
Padres
- Xander Bogaerts, 2B
- Fernando Tatis, RF
- Jake Cronenworth, 1B
- Manny Machado, DH
- Ha-Seong Kim, SS
- Jurickson Profar, LF
- Luis Campusano, C
- Graham Pauley, 3B
- Jackson Merrill, CF
Bullpens
I’m expecting both bullpens to get a ton of work over these first two games. While both clubs have been ramping up quicker than the rest of the league during spring training, starters still aren’t stretched out enough to pitch deep into games. With both the Dodgers and Padres having a week off before playing their third regular season game, there’s no reason why Dave Roberts and Mike Shildt wouldn’t empty out the pen in Seoul.
Gocheok SkyDome
I’m not exactly sure how Gocheok SkyDome will play, but I found park factors via statsplus. We’re looking at 325 feet down the lines and 400 feet to dead center, with 12-foot walls. It appears to be a slight hitters park in terms of runs and home runs and doesn’t feature much foul territory.
Best Bet
I don’t have an official bet as of now for the Seoul Series, but I am waiting for a couple more pitching props to get posted. I lean over the 8.5 runs for game one, but I’ll probably sit out the first game and keep an eye on which ball Manfred & Co. decide to feature. I’ll be sure to post anything I bet on the MLB bet tracker for you to tail or fade, and you can always check out Frank Brank’s MLB Model to see if he has an edge. Happy Opening Day!
