Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Tuesday 9/6)

Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets today. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!

Today, Eric Pauly provides his picks. 

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

Minnesota Twins @ New York Yankees 

Minnesota Twins RL +1.5 -134 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

The Yankees have been one of the worst teams in baseball over the past two months, and they have seen their lead in the AL East shrink to five games. The Twins are one game out of the AL Central, but they are 6.5 games out of the Wild Card. It is safe to say this is an important matchup. 

The Yankees are 11-19 in their last 30 games, and they need to start building momentum for a stretch run. New York is 81-54 on the season, they are 46-20 at home, but they are just 51-73 covering the run line as a favorite. 

The Twins are 14-16 in their last 30 games and need to take the AL Central if they want to make the postseason. Minnesota is 68-65 on the season, they are 28-36 on the road, and they are 23-26 covering the run line as an underdog. 

Gerrit Cole will make the start for the Yankees at home in this must-win game. Cole is 10-7 on the season with a 3.28 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP and a 3.22 FIP. June 9, Cole faced the Twins in Minnesota and allowed seven runs on eight hits and was bounced in the third inning. It was Cole’s worst start of the season. 

At home this year, Cole has been rock solid. In 88.2 innings of work, Cole has a 3.15 ERA, a .208 batting average against, a 0.91 WHIP and a 2.66 FIP. The Yankees are 7-7 in Cole’s home starts this season. 

Rookie Joe Ryan is making the start for the Twins. Ryan is 10-7 on the season with a 3.88 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP and a 4.27 FIP. In his last start, Ryan allowed five runs on eight hits in five innings in a Twins loss to the Red Sox. 

On the road this year, Ryan has a 5.05 ERA, a .522 slugging percentage against, a 4.88 FIP and a 1.29 WHIP. Ryan has been much better at home, but I do not think his mediocre road splits tell the whole story. Ryan is a great young pitcher, and I am expecting positive regression for Ryan here. 

The Yankees offense has been struggling, so I do not expect them to jump all over Ryan. The Twins jumped all over Cole the first time they saw him, and I think it is more likely that they repeat that performance rather than the Yankees’ lineup returning to their early season form. 

I have this game priced at MIN RL -150, so there is value on the Twins +1.5 -134. In a must-win game for both teams, I expect this game to be close. The Twins are more likely to win or lose by less than two than the Yankees are to blow out Minnesota. 

Bet: Minnesota Twins RL +1.5 -134 (FanDuel Sportsbook)