Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
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Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins
Astros +115 @ Twins -135 – Total 8 (BetMGM)
Cristian Javier and Sonny Gray square off Tuesday afternoon at Target Field in Game 3 of the American League Division Series after the two clubs split the first two games in Houston.
Cristian Javier has had an inconsistent 2023 season, posting the highest ERA and lowest K% of his young career. However, he improved as the season went on, as he regained a feel for his slider. The righty posted a 23.1% K% for the season but had his best month in September, as far as punchouts go, posting a 32.3% K% in over 30 innings. He finished with a 25.2% K% in the second half, after posting a 21.5% strikeout percentage in the first half. The 26-year-old improved on his zone-contact rate, dropping it by about 3%, he also increased his swinging-strike percentage a bit. Javier is primarily a two-pitch pitcher, throwing his fastball and slider over 88% of the time. HIs slider has been his best strikeout pitch, as it carries a 28.7% whiff% and 26.8% K%.
Nobody posted a higher strikeout percentage than Twins batters in 2023 at 26.6%, we saw a slight dip in the second half at 26.4%. Not much has changed in the postseason as the Twinkies 30.2% K% ranks second highest, with only the Braves striking out at a higher percentage. Minnesota’s projected lineup includes six batters with a 25% K% or higher, with six of those hitters posting a strikeout percentage higher than 28%. I mentioned Javier’s slider above — in the regular season Minny posted the third-highest strikeout percentage against that offering in MLB. Only the Pirates and Reds posted a higher K% than the Twinkies 32.8%.
Quick hooks are always a concern when betting overs in the postseason, but this isn’t a big number and we should also get some help from the man working the plate this afternoon.
It’s always a plus when Frank Brank’s Strikeout Model agrees with our bet; as Frank projects the 26-year-old for 5.58 punchouts. I wouldn’t bet this any higher than -145 and as always, be sure to use the FTN Prop Shop to grab the best number available.
Bet
Cristian Javier Over 4.5 K’s (-125, BetMGM)
