NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Patrick MahomesPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Chiefs vs. Broncos
Right now, Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards prop is set at 270.5 yards (-129/-106).
The public has bet the OVER up to 270.5 (-129) after it opened @ 269.5 (-117).
Pros
- Right now, the most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (69.3% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Chiefs.
- In this week’s game, Patrick Mahomes is expected by the projection model to wind up with the 8th-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 35.9.
- This year, the deficient Denver Broncos defense has given up a colossal 82.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the biggest rate in the league.
- This year, the poor Denver Broncos defense has yielded the most adjusted yards-per-target in the league to the opposing side: a whopping 9.86 yards.
- The Broncos linebackers rank as the 2nd-worst unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
Cons
- With a 10.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are a massive favorite this week, suggesting much more of a reliance on running than their normal approach.
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to see only 125.7 offensive plays called: the 4th-lowest number among all games this week.
- Windy weather conditions (like the 20-mph being projected in this game) generally lead to lessened passing effectiveness, lower pass volume, and increased rush volume.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 32.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense this year: 7th-fewest in the league.
- Patrick Mahomes’s 260.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season shows a a material decline in his passing skills over last season’s 325.0 mark.
Projection
THE BLITZ
242
Passing Yards
242
Passing Yards
