Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Welcome to FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite MLB bets today.
Today, Chris Meaney provides his picks for Saturday.
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Be sure to subscribe to the Hot Corner at FTN Network with MLB Dream and myself as we share a few of our favorite MLB picks.
The Best MLB Props Bets
Logan Webb OVER 18.5 Outs
(+104, Caesars Sportsbook)
With this prop, we’re looking at Logan Webb pitching into the seventh inning against the Miami Marlins. Webb would need to record at least one out in the seventh inning to give him 19 outs to cash the bet. Webb has completed at least six innings in eight of his nine starts and has recorded at least 19 outs in six straight outings, including a showing against Miami on April 17. Overall, Webb has completed seven innings in four of his last five starts. The Giants pitcher has a solid 3.20 ERA, 3.10 xFIP and 1.68 BB/9. He’s been even better at home, rocking a 2.03 ERA over 26.2 innings (2.91 ERA in 99 home innings last season). The righty has allowed just six earned runs in his four home starts (two or fewer in each). The Marlins rank 27th in wOBA, 25th in ISO and have a top 12 K%. Webb has only struck out 58 batters over 59 innings (8.85 K/9) but fanned six in that start in Miami.
Bonus: Webb OVER 5.5 K -118 (Caesars Sportsbook)
Houston Astros OVER 5.5 Runs
(+100, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Jose Altuve finished 0-for-4 in his return to the lineup last night, but I wouldn’t look into it too much. You don’t need me to tell you how important he is atop the order for the Astros. Houston has won five straight games and eight of nine. They’re massive favorites at home today against JP Sears and the lowly Oakland Athletics. Sears has a decent 44:9 K:BB over 42.2 innings but has served up nine home runs in eight starts. His 55.7% fly-ball rate is the second-highest in the majors and hasn’t helped him on the road (7.84 ERA in 20.2 innings). Shoutout to Alex Bregman, who is starting to heat up and has a history of smashing lefties.
Bonus Bets
- Astros Score First & Win -105 (Unibet)
- Alex Bregman Home Run +400 (Caesars)
- Bregman OVER 1.5 Total Bases +115 (BetMGM)
- Jose Altuve Run Scored -135 (DraftKings)
- Hunter Brown OVER 17.5 Outs Recorded -110 (BET MGM)
- HOU O 4.5 Runs, HOU -1.5, Altuve Hit & Run, Yordan Alvarez Hit, Bregman Hit, Kyle Tucker Hit, José Abreu Hit & Hunter Brown Win +1100 SGP (BET 365)
Chris Sale OVER 5.5 K
(-145, DraftKings Sportsbook)
This is a touch too juicy now, but it was the first bet I put in last night (-135) and one of my favorite pitching props on the board. Chris Sale’s 28% K rate and 11.22 K/9 is the highest it’s been since 2019. He’s pitching deeper into ball games and looks healthy after numerous injuries over the past couple of seasons. Sale has 19 punchouts in his past two games (14 innings) and has topped 5.5 in six of his eight outings this season. More importantly, Sale has only walked four batters in his last four outings after issuing nine walks in his first four starts. The Padres have some great bats in their lineup, but they’re also sporting a 23.8% strikeout rate (10th) on the season, and a touch higher over the last month.
