Prime-Time Props — Thursday Night Football, Week 1
Prop God
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Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres: Blake Snell Over 6.5 Ks -135 (BetMGM)
Diamondbacks +185 @ Padres -225 Total 8 (BetMGM)
I’m still on the road today, so this will be quick. The Padres begin a three-game set versus the Diamondbacks Monday, and I’ve identified an edge in the strikeout market. We’re backing Blake Snell’s Over 6.5 strikeouts.
After a tough start to the season, Padres left-handed pitcher Blake Snell has found his dominant form in the second half. The southpaw posted a 3.70 FIP and 29.5% K rate in the first half of the MLB season. His FIP is down to 2.40, while he’s increased his strikeouts to 32.8% in the second half. Snell’s 82% z-contact % is the lowest it’s been since 2019 with the Rays when he posted a career-best 33% K rate. Snell has gone over this number in six of his last seven starts while exhibiting elite control. He’s posted a 33.8% K rate in that stretch with a 28.7% K-BB rate. Overall, Snell’s K% and SwStr% both rank eighth best in all of baseball.
The Diamondbacks have the 10th-highest strikeout percentage vs left-handed pitchers since August 1 at 24.2%, which is 1.1% higher than their season mark. The D-Backs average over a strikeout more on the road per game (8.73) than they do at home (7.52). Arizona has the fourth-highest called-strike percentage in baseball, and the Snakes’ z-swing percentage (percentage of pitches a batter swings at inside the strike zone) is the fourth lowest in the majors. Snell should be able to catch the D-Backs looking at a couple third strikes tonight.
I’m projecting Snell for about eight strikeouts against this Arizona lineup, and he should pitch at least six innings. As always, be sure to check out FTN’s Prop Shop to ensure you’re betting the best available number.
Bet: Blake Snell Over 6.5 Ks -135
