Best MLB Bets Today - Free (Monday 9/11)

Welcome to FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite MLB bets. Today, Chris Meaney provides his picks for Monday.

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Best MLB Props

Toronto Blue Jays OVER 4.5 Runs

(+100, DraftKings)

Dane Dunning has had a nice season for the Texas Rangers with a 9-6 record and 3.88 ERA over 146 innings. However, his command has been poor of late, his contact rates are starting to catch up to him and his fly-ball rate has been high over the past few outings. Dunning has issued 11 walks, 29 hits, 19 runs and six homers in his past four starts. In fact, he’s allowed at least one home run in nine of his past 11 trips to the mound.

Dunning’s 80.1% contact rate is the 12th-highest in baseball among pitchers with 140 innings. His 20.3% line-drive rate is in the top 25, and his 8.1% barrel rate ranks inside the top 30. During the second half of the season, Dunning’s barrel percentage sits at 10.0% (11th-highest). Opponents are slashing .280/.347/.514 with a .366 wOBA over his 54.0 innings in the second half. He’s allowed 13 home runs and has walked 21 batters, which has led to a 5.67 ERA. In the first half of the season (92.0 innings), Dunning had a 2.84 ERA, only allowed six home runs and only surrendered 24 walks. Opponents slashed .236/.296/.342 with a .282 wOBA.

It’s hard to carry a sub-3.00 ERA when you’re only striking out seven batters per nine innings while allowing an 80% contact rate. The Blue Jays enter with a top-10 wOBA and wRC+ against RHP. Both marks are also inside the top 10 during the second half of the season. George Springer leads the Jays with five home runs over the last 30 days and has been much better over the last month after struggling in July.