NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today
Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks: Phillies TT Over 4.5 -135 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Phillies -175 @ D-Backs +150 Total 8.5 (DraftKings)
The Phillies have won seven of their last 10 games and currently hold a 2.5-game lead over the Brewers for the second National League Wild Card spot. The Phils head to Arizona to begin a three-game series against the Diamondbacks on Monday night. Arizona looks to continue to play spoiler after sweeping the White Sox in Chicago over the weekend. However, it won’t be easy for the D-Backs with Madison Bumgarner and his 5.29 xERA on the mound for the home team.
Philadelphia’s offense has had success against left-handed pitching this season, ranking eighth in MLB in wRC+. They’ve been even better lately, with a 137 wRC+ versus southpaws in August, which ranks fifth best in baseball. The Phils are averaging five runs a game over their last 10 contests, even after getting shut out by the Pirates Sunday on getaway day. The return of Bryce Harper has added some depth to the lineup, and Bumgarner should have his hands full. Overall, the Phillies rank just outside the top five in HR, wOBA and barrel percentage. Their .252 expected batting average ranks second best in the majors.
Bumgarner hasn’t pitched as poorly as expected in his 14th MLB season. However, his savant page is still covered in blue. The 33-year-old’s expected batting average, strikeout percentage, whiff percentage and expected slugging percentage all rank in the bottom-12th percentile. Bumgarner has posted the second-lowest strikeout percentage of his career and has a FIP close to five in the second half of the season. Right-handed hitters are slashing .285/.339/.498, with a .362 wOBA and 4.80 FIP against Bumgarner this season. Harper and Kyle Schwarber should be the only two lefties in the Phillies lineup tonight.
I’m projecting Bumgarner to grind his way through about five innings against this Phillies lineup Monday evening. Things won’t get much better for the D-Backs once manager Torey Lovullo makes a call to the bullpen. The Snakes bullpen has the sixth-worst ERA and the fourth-worst SIERA in the majors this season. This Phillies offense shouldn’t have trouble scoring 5+ runs tonight as they continue their playoff push. As always, be sure to use the FTN Prop Shop to make sure you’re betting the best number available.
Bet: Phillies TT Over 4.5 -135
