Today’s Best Bets
Sam Choudhury
We have a full slate of baseball going on all day Friday, which leaves us plenty of opportunities to make some money. It seems like the weather is going to be less of a factor than the rest of the week, so that’s a big help when choosing our bets.
MLB Best Bets
Rockies/Rays Over 12.5 Runs
(-105, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Rockies have played seven games so far, and there have been 13 runs or more in three of them, despite three games coming in the cold of Chicago. There are plenty of times I stay away from the first game at Coors Field, but we have some of the best hitting weather Colorado is going to get. The temps are going to be in the 70s with sustained winds of 20 mph out to center and gusts up to 40 mph. As a pitching staff, Colorado is 30th in K rate at 14.1%, 30th in xFIP at 5.55, 30th in FIP at 6.57, 30th in average allowed at .329 and the only team with an OBP allowed over .400. The Rays should have a field day offensively, and Tampa pitching is also in the bottom half of the league in OBP, wOBA and ERA through the start of the season. The FTN model has this total at 11.4 runs right now, but it’s already nudged up early in the morning from 11, and I believe it will continue to rise in this weather.
Philadelphia Phillies Over 4.5 Runs
(-135, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Multiple experts are on this play, and the short version is the Phillies get to face lefty Patrick Corbin. He was a below-average pitcher in 2023, and the first start of the 2024 season didn’t do anything to change that opinion. While the xFIP against the Reds was 4.39, Corbin allowed a 9.03 FIP, seven hits and a 46.7% hard-hit rate in that start. The Phillies were a top-12 offense in 2023 against lefties in wRC+, ISO and OPS and currently have a 104 wRC+ in 2024. That would be almost an exact match for the 2023 number, and FTN Data has the Phillies projected for five runs right now –
