Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
The Run for the Roses is here. Saturday, we’ll have the 149th running of the Kentucky Derby. The Derby is always a tricky race to bet, as you not only have very young horses, but you also have a massive 20 horses on the track. That may seem intimidating, but I have something that can potentially help you pinpoint who to place your bets on in the Debry.
Years ago, I came across a forum post from a poster called MoneylineExpress that outlined a 10-step process that whittled down the 20-horse field to just a few viable contenders. Horse racing systems are a dime a dozen and usually don’t work. But to my surprise, this process nailed Animal Kingdom as one of the three horses who could win the 2011 Kentucky Derby. A $2 win bet on Animal Kingdom paid $43.80, so needless to say, the process always stuck out to me.
Over the years, I’ve used this process to identify my Derby win bets. While the winners haven’t always been longer shots like Animal Kingdom, the process has worked in nine of the last 10 running of the roses. The one exception came in 2019 when Country House won as a 65-1 longshot in the slop thanks to the disqualification of Maximum Security. The process isn’t foolproof, but it’s pretty darn good. So, let’s dive into the 10 steps. First, here’s a look at the field with the trainer and jockey in parentheses along with their opening line odds:
2023 Kentucky Derby Betting: The Field
1 Hit Show (Brad Cox, Manny Franco) 30-1
2 Verifying (Brad Cox, Tyler Gaffalione) 15-1
3 Two Phil’s (Larry Rivelli, Jareth Loveberry) 12-1
4 Confidence Game (Keith Desormeaux, James Graham) 20-1
5 Tapit Trice (Todd Pletcher, Luis Saez) 5-1
6 Kingsbarns (Todd Pletcher, Jose Ortiz) 12-1
7 Reincarnate (Tim Yakteen, John Velazquez) 50-1
8 Mage (Gustavo Delgado, Javier Castellano) 15-1
9 Skinner (John Shirreffs, Juan Hernandez) 20-1
10 Practical Move (Tim Yakteen, Ramon Vazquez) 10-1
11 Disarm (Steve Asmussen, Joel Rosario) 30-1
12 Jace’s Road (Brad Cox, Florent Geroux) 15-1
13 Sun Thunder (Kenny McPeek, Brian Hernandez Jr.) 50-1
14 Angel of Empire (Brad Cox, Flavien Prat) 8-1
15 Forte (Todd Pletcher, Irad Ortiz Jr.) 3-1
16 Raise Cain (Ben Colebrook, Gerardo Corrales) 50-1
17 Derma Sotogake (Hidetaka Otonashi, Christophe Lemaire) 10-1
18 Rocket Can (Bill Mott, Junior Alvarado) 30-1
19 Lord Miles (Saffie Joseph Jr., Paco Lopez) 30-1
20 Continuar (Yoshito Yahagi, Ryusei Sakai) 30-1
21 Cyclone Mischief (Dale Romans, Joel Rosario) 30-1
22 Mandarin Hero (Terunobu Fujita, Kazushi Kimura) 20-1
23 King Russell (Ronald Moquett, Rafael Bejarano) 50-1
(The 9 horse Skinner, 10 horse Practical Move and 19 horse Lord Miles scratched.)
How to Bet on the 2023 Kentucky Derby
Step 1
Remove all horses who did not run at least 1 1/8 mile in their last prep race. Horses who have not run at least this distance will have a tough time with the 1 1/4 mile distance in the Derby. Every winner for the last 30 years has run at least 1 1/8 mile in their final prep race before the Derby.
Eliminate:
4 Confidence Game – last race was the Rebel at 1 1/16.
11 Disarm – last race was the Lexington Stakes at 1 1/16.
Step 2
Remove all horses who did not finish at least fourth or better in its final prep race. No horse has won the race with a finish worse than fourth in its last prep race going back to 1962. The 2019 winner Country House finished third in its final prep race before the Derby, but often the winner is coming off a win in its final prep race.
Eliminate:
16 Raise Cain – Finished 5th in the Blue Grass Stakes.
Step 3
Remove all horses who did not race at age 2. All the horses in the Kentucky Derby are three years old. While that may seem quite young, it’s extremely rare to see a horse step onto the track at three and compete at this level.
Eliminate:
6 Kingsbarns – First race was Jan. 14, 2023.
8 Mage – First race was Jan. 28, 2023.
Step 4
Remove all horses who were not first or second with a furlong to go in either of their last two starts before the Derby. Sure, Giacomo won the roses from back in sixth with a furlong to go in 2005, but those sorts of comebacks are rare in the Derby. The winner will almost always be up front with a furlong to go.
Eliminate:
13 Sun Thunder – Was 4th and 6th with a furlong to go in last two races.
15 Forte – Was 3rd and 5th with a furlong to go in last two races.
23 King Russell – Was 4th and 6th with a furlong to go in last two races.
2023 Kentucky Derby: The Contenders
1 Hit Show (Brad Cox, Manny Franco) 30-1
2 Verifying (Brad Cox, Tyler Gaffalione) 15-1
3 Two Phil’s (Larry Rivelli, Jareth Loveberry) 12-1
5 Tapit Trice (Todd Pletcher, Luis Saez) 5-1
7 Reincarnate (Tim Yakteen, John Velazquez) 50-1
12 Jace’s Road (Brad Cox, Florent Geroux) 15-1
14 Angel of Empire (Brad Cox, Flavien Prat) 8-1
17 Derma Sotogake (Hidetaka Otonashi, Christophe Lemaire) 10-1
18 Rocket Can (Bill Mott, Junior Alvarado) 30-1
20 Continuar (Yoshito Yahagi, Ryusei Sakai) 30-1
21 Cyclone Mischief (Dale Romans, Joel Rosario) 30-1
22 Mandarin Hero (Terunobu Fujita, Kazushi Kimura) 20-1
The field is now whittled down to 12 horses, with the favorite, Forte, taken off the board. From here we will no longer be eliminating any horses. Instead, we’re going to award a point to the horses for each criteria box they check.
Step 5
Give a point to any horse who won a race of at least one mile at 2 years old.
Point to:
1 Hit Show, 3 Two Phil’s, 5 Tapit Trice, 7 Reincarnate, 12 Jace’s Road, 14 Angel of Empire, 17 Derma Sotogake, 18 Rocket Can, 20 Continuar, 21 Cyclone Mischief, 22 Mandarin Hero
Step 6
Give a point to any horse who ran one of its two fastest Beyer speed figures in its last race.
Point to:
1 Hit Show, 2 Verifying, 3 Two Phil’s, 5 Tapit Trice, 7 Reincarnate, 12 Jace’s Road, 14 Angel of Empire, 17 Derma Sotogake, 18 Rocket Can, 20 Continuar, 21 Cyclone Mischief, 22 Mandarin Hero
Step 7
Give a point to any horse who ran in a graded stakes as a 3-year-old before April.
Point to:
1 Hit Show, 2 Verifying, 3 Two Phil’s, 5 Tapit Trice, 7 Reincarnate, 12 Jace’s Road, 14 Angel of Empire, 17 Derma Sotogake, 18 Rocket Can, 20 Continuar, 21 Cyclone Mischief
Step 8
Give a point to any horse who won a graded stakes race.
Point to:
1 Hit Show, 3 Two Phil’s, 5 Tapit Trice, 7 Reincarnate, 14 Angel of Empire, 17 Derma Sotogake, 18 Rocket Can
Step 9
Give a point to any horse whose finish in each of its last two races was no worse than its place with one furlong to go in the race.
Point to:
1 Hit Show, 5 Tapit Trice, 10 Practical Move, 14 Angel of Empire, 18 Rocket Can, 22 Mandarin Hero
The Results: Best Bets at the 2023 Kentucky Derby
Hit Show 5
Verifying 2
Two Phil’s 4
Tapit Trice 5
Reincarnate 4
Practical Move 5
Jace’s Road 3
Angel of Empire 5
Derma Sotogake 3
Rocket Can 5
Continuar 3
Cyclone Mischief 3
Mandarin Hero 3
Step 10
Winning horses nearly always have four or five points from the previous five steps. We can toss Verifying, Jace’s Road, Derma Sotogake, Continuar, Cyclone Mischief and Mandarin Hero from the pool. In our final step, we’re going to look at the Beyer speed figures for this group. To eliminate any one-hit wonders, we’re going to take the second-highest Beyer figure for each of the seven remaining horses.
Tapit Trice 92
Hit Show 91
Reincarnate 90
Angel of Empire 89
Two Phil’s 88
Rocket Can 86
While Beyer numbers are far from a perfect metric, we typically don’t see a horse within five points of the top speed take the roses. That makes things tricky because the top horse by this metric would have been Practical Move at 100. With him out of the race, we have a much more competitive picture with five horses in play. Only Rocket Can isn’t within 5 points of the top horse. So, we’re left with the following horses as the top contenders:
5 Tapit Trice
1 Hit Show
7 Reincarnate
14 Angel of Empire
3 Two Phil’s
Tapit Trice is the second favorite on the morning line and could get bet down from 5-1. As for Hit Show and Two Phil’s, there’s a lot of risk here. No horse has won out of the No. 1 post since 1986, and the last time a horse won out of the three stall was in 1998. Win bets are optimal. Instead, we’ll only use Hit Show in our exotic wagers.
We also should consider the jockeys and trainers for each horse. Ramon Vazquez will be on the mount for Practical Move. While Vasquez is a seasoned rider, this is only his second Kentucky Derby. He previously finished 13th aboard Mr. Z in 2015. While the jock doesn’t move the need, Practical Move is trained by Tim Yakteen. A former assistant of the still-suspended Bob Baffert, Yakteen struck out on his own and has two horses in this field.
As for Tapit Trice, we have a jockey with more experience in triple crown races with Luis Saez on the mount. He’s yet to break his maiden in the Derby, but he was aboard Maximum Security in 2019. That horse won the race but was disqualified. Tapit Trice also has a premium trainer in Todd Pletcher. He’s won this race twice (2010 and 2017) and has six triple crown wins to his name.
There you have it. The process has given us three horses, but Hit Show has a disadvantageous post. We’re left with Practical Move and Tapit Trice. Of those two, we’re more likely to get a good price on Practical Move, which is a good thing as the number suggest it’s our clear favorite. Win bets on both of the top two make a lot of sense. Here’s how we could approach this race on a small budget and a larger budget:
Betting with a $25 budget
$10 win bet on 5, 14
$5 win bet on 7
Betting with a $100 budget
$20 win and place bet on 5, 14
$10 win and place bet on 7
Now, I should say that the above process works for identifying candidates who can win the race, but it’s not an approach to use for exotics. Sure, we can use 5, 7 and 14 as our key horses, but simply boxing them up in exactas and trifectas isn’t an optimal approach. Here, we’ll need to sprinkle in horses who didn’t meet our criteria above because every year we see those horses hit the board. Here are the other horses I’ll be using in exotics:
Exactas – in addition the key horses, add the following:
1 Hit Show
3 Two Phil’s
12 Jace’s Road
15 Forte
Trifectas – add these horses to the key horses and exacta horses:
2 Verifying
17 Derma Sotogake
18 Rocket Can
20 Continuar
21 Cyclone Mischief
22 Mandarin Hero
Here are some sample wagers based on the above picks:
$2 exacta: 5, 7, 14 /1, 2, 12, 15 ($24 total bet)
$2 exacta box: 5, 7, 14 ($12)
$1 exacta: 5, 7, 14 /2, 17, 18, 20, 21, 22 ($18)
$1 trifecta: 5, 14/1, 3, 5, 12, 14, 15/ 1, 3, 5, 12, 14, 15 ($60)
$1 trifecta: 5/7, 14, 15 /1, 2, 3, 12, 17, 18, 20, 21, 22 ($24)
$1 trifecta: 5/1, 2, 3, 12, 15, 17, 18, 20, 21, 22 /7, 14, 15 ($24)
