Fantasy Football Numbers to Know: Week 17

Data plays a massive role in fantasy football. Especially for massive dorks like me who analyze this silly game every single day. And with all of the incredible data we have available at FTN Fantasy, it makes sense to utilize that information to help with fantasy football decisions.

So every Friday, I’ll run through some of my favorite stats for the week, helping you identify some of the best matchups in fantasy football. Be sure to check out the incredible FTN Fantasy StatsHub for a deep dive of all of our in-depth analytics.

Numbers to Know for Fantasy Football Week 17

With Jalen Hurts leaving last week’s game very early, we ended up seeing 30 dropbacks from Kenny Pickett. The backup quarterback wasted no time targeting his top wideout early and often, as Brown saw over 65% of the team’s first-read targets. Five of Pickett’s first six throws went in the direction of Brown, who had 15 total targets over the course of the game. In fact, Brown and DeVonta Smith were the only two receivers/tight ends on the Philadelphia roster to even see a target last week. It is looking like Pickett will draw the start this week, and while it is a downgrade for the entire Eagles offense, it doesn’t mean you should suddenly bench Brown in your fantasy championships.

2. The Falcons Have Allowed 5 TDs off Post Routes

LANDOVER, MD - NOVEMBER 17: Washington Redskins Wide Receiver Terry McLaurin (17) races up field during a NFL game between the Washington Redskins and the New York Jets on November 17, 2019 at Fedex Field, in Landover, Maryland. (Photo by Tony Quinn/Icon Sportswire) — LANDOVER, MD – NOVEMBER 17: Washington Redskins Wide Receiver Terry McLaurin (17) races up field during a NFL game between the Washington Redskins and the New York Jets on November 17, 2019 at Fedex Field, in Landover, Maryland. (Photo by Tony Quinn/Icon Sportswire)

That is good for third in football and, if the weather doesn’t pose a massive problem, bodes well for Terry McLaurin. Washington’s top wideout has over a 40% target share off post routes this season, ranking third among all pass-catchers in targets off the route type. A matchup with the Falcons is favorable, as they are also coughing up the third-most EPA/TGT off post routes (1.26), as well as the 10th-highest success rate (55.6%). And to even add onto the intrigue, the Falcons are allowing the third-most yards per game to opposing lead wide receivers this season (80.6), as well as the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers.

3. 14.4% of Runs Against the Giants Have Gained 10-Plus Yards

New York’s run defense has struggled all season long, and that was with Dexter Lawrence II healthy until recently. They have allowed the highest explosive rush rate in the NFL at 14.4%, while only the Cardinals are allowing more yards after contact per rush than the Giants (2.8). The Colts, meanwhile, have a stellar running back in Jonathan Taylor, who is coming off a monster Week 16 performance and has a great chance to build off that. Indianapolis is mostly an inside zone team, as over 49% of Taylor’s carries come off the concept. The Giants, meanwhile, are allowing the fourth-highest success rate against inside zone runs this season (44.8%), as well as the fifth-most yards per carry (4.8) and ninth-lowest stuff rate (13.8%). Taylor is in a position to have a second consecutive huge game Sunday.

INDIANAPOLIS, IN - OCTOBER 02: Tennessee Titans Tight End Chigoziem Okonkwo (85) makes the catch during an NFL game between the Tennessee Titans and the Indianapolis Colts on October 02, 2022 at Lucas Oil Stadium, in Indianapolis IN. (Photo by Jeffrey Brown/Icon Sportswire) — INDIANAPOLIS, IN – OCTOBER 02: Tennessee Titans Tight End Chigoziem Okonkwo (85) makes the catch during an NFL game between the Tennessee Titans and the Indianapolis Colts on October 02, 2022 at Lucas Oil Stadium, in Indianapolis IN. (Photo by Jeffrey Brown/Icon Sportswire)

My favorite tight end sleeper from 2023, Okonkwo has finally been delivering. Over the past two games, Okonkwo has hauled in 17-of-21 targets for 140 yards. During that span, his target share is just over 28%, and he’s been targeted on well over 30% of his routes. Okonkwo has also accounted for over 32% of the Titans first-read targets, the highest rate on the team. He’s been much better in the games where Mason Rudolph has been under center, averaging nearly seven targets, 50 receiving yards and 10 PPR points per game. Building plenty of momentum, Okonkwo now gets a friendly matchup with a Jacksonville defense surrendering 13.8 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this season, the seventh-most in the league.

5. Ameer Abdullah Played 43% of Snaps Last Week

It may sound like a low number, but to me, it was actually encouraging. In a back-and-forth game that didn’t feature the Raiders playing with a huge lead, Abdullah played just 10 fewer snaps than Alexander Mattison, seeing 12 touches to Mattison’s 16. Both players scored rushing touchdowns and were heavily involved in the passing game. If you were forced to start Abdullah last week, you can roll with him again this week, especially against a Saints team that has allowed multiple running backs to score against them two different times this season, including all three members of the Green Bay backfield just last week.