Fantasy Football Numbers to Know: Week 14

Data plays a massive role in fantasy football. Especially for massive dorks like me who analyze this silly game every single day. And with all of the incredible data we have available at FTN Fantasy, it makes sense to utilize that information to help with fantasy football decisions.

So every Friday, I’ll run through some of my favorite stats for the week, helping you identify some of the best matchups in fantasy football. Be sure to check out the incredible FTN Fantasy StatsHub for a deep dive of all of our in-depth analytics.

Numbers to Know for Fantasy Football Week 14

1. Russell Wilson Leads the NFL in Passing Yards Per Game Against Single-High Defense (170.8)

Since Wilson became the starting quarterback in Pittsburgh, he’s done exactly what he’s always done — throw the ball down the field. 15% of his passes have traveled 20-plus air yards this season, and his four such touchdowns since becoming the starter are the third-most in the league. That makes this a fantastic spot against a Cleveland defense that is allowing a ton of explosive pass plays. The Browns have surrendered the third-most pass plays of 20-plus air yards (24), including seven touchdowns, also the third most in the league. Playing a ton of single-high coverage will lead to explosive plays, and Cleveland is deploying the defense 65% of the time, the second-highest rate in football. Wilson, meanwhile, has been very advantageous against single-high, leading the NFL in passing yards per game (170.8). He also ranks fifth in yards per attempt (9.2), fifth in touchdown passes (6), 10th in EPA/DB (0.27) and second in highlight throw rate (7.2%).

2. The Giants Are Allowing 2.4 Yards Before Contact Per Attempt

That is the fourth-worst rate in football, and the Giants are also coughing up 2.7 yards after contact per rush, the second-worst mark in the league. And that was with All-Pro defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence II on the field. He’s now done for the remainder of the season, making this an even better matchup for Alvin Kamara, who should also see a bump in short-yardage work with Taysom Hill also out for the year. Oh, and to make this matchup even more favorable, 15.2% of the runs against the Giants this season have gained at least 10 yards, the second-highest rate in the league.

3. Just 58.3% of Garrett Wilson’s Targets Have Been Deemed Catchable over the Last 3 Games

Wilson has been incredibly quiet over his last three games, averaging just 4.7 catches, 33.3 receiving yards and 8.0 PPR points per game. However, it’s hardly been his fault. Aaron Rodgers is missing throws when Wilson is open, including two potential touchdowns just last week. Wilson was wide open in the corner of the end zone when Rodgers overthrew him, and Rodgers also missed him on a potential long play down the sideline. Just 14 of Wilson’s 24 targets over the last three games have been deemed catchable. The volume has remained solid, but the quality of targets has suddenly become an issue. Wilson has become a risky, low-end WR2 in fantasy.

4. Darnell Mooney Has a 28.3% Target Share Against the Blitz

Very quietly, that is good for the sixth-highest rate among all pass-catchers in football. Mooney is also averaging a very healthy 3.7 air yards per route run when the Falcons are blitzed, which is notable considering his Week 14 opponent. We know Brian Flores is going to send heat as much as anyone in football, as Minnesota still leads the league in blitz rate at 40.7%. And if that blitz doesn’t get home, this secondary has been exploitable, as the Vikings are allowing 29% more production to fantasy wide receivers than average this season, the highest rate in the league. Mooney has serious upside this week. You know, as long as Kirk Cousins doesn’t throw the ball to his former team.

5. Bucky Irving Is the RB7 Since Week 7

The sensational rookie running back is averaging 18.5 PPR points per game since Week 7, also ranking first in both yards after contact per attempt (3.7) and juke rate (9.3%). Last week, Irving set season- (and obviously career-) highs in carries (25), snap share (54%) and carry share (64.1%). He’s also remained involved in the passing game, averaging 4.2 targets per game since Week 7, just ahead of Rachaad White (4.0). His 16.7 touches per game are also ahead of White’s 12.3, as Irving has emerged as the 1A in this Tampa Bay backfield. As long as he’s good to go, he’s a must-start running back this week.