Scott Spratt's Articles

Add Alvin Kamara to the list of players — like Joe Burrow and Josh Jacobs — who erased early-season touchdown shortfalls and hopefully benefited some fantasy players who read this column and traded for them.   But there are still several compelling unlucky players to discuss in the Week 8 edition of my lucky and […]

Welcome to the Week 8 fantasy football start/sit column, where I have detailed which players you should start and sit this week based on their recent trends, matchups, and other game contexts.   Players are labeled as starts if I rank them better than the consensus and sits if I rank them worse than the […]

Even with Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert on bye, Week 8 of the NFL season features plenty of fun matchups and explosive offenses. But several of them miss the main slate. The Ravens and Bucs play in a rare compelling Thursday night game. And the Bills and Bengals deploy their top-three passing offenses Sunday and […]

Early-season expected touchdown trailers like Joe Burrow and Josh Jacobs have righted their ships with touchdown barrages in recent weeks. But the push to November has hardly eliminated the small-sample touchdown surpluses and shortfalls that foreshadow likely regression for players the rest of the season. And while that may be bad news for recent fantasy […]

It’s time of the Week 7 fantasy football start/sit column, where we run through the players you should start or sit this week (and, of course, we use data to  support the reasoning). Let’s dive into this week’s start ‘em and sit ’em! The Week 7 byes subtract three of the best teams in football […]

With the only 6-0 team (the Eagles) and two of the just three 5-1 teams (the Bills and Vikings) plus the defending Super Bowl champion Rams on bye, Week 7 could be a difficult one for traditional fantasy players. But in DFS, fewer chalk lineups make for more fun. And if you are ready to […]

Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase ranked first and third at their positions with 12.40- and 5.91-touchdown surpluses in 2021. And while those outlier totals set an expectation for regression this season, Burrow and Chase again proved how special they are with a pair of deep strike touchdowns against the Saints Sunday.   “Lucky” and “Unlucky” […]

A second straight loss with 10 or fewer points scored has Rams fans concerned for their team’s chances at a playoff berth, never mind a Super Bowl defense. But even midway through October, some teams have suffered dramatically more difficult schedules than others. And the Rams are that poster child with banked games against the […]

The start of the 2022 bye weeks costs daily players a Lions team that has proven itself as one of the best offenses and best defenses for other offenses to face. But Week 6 features a handful of plus offenses facing defenses that promote passing and rushing touchdowns and provides plenty of lower-leverage alternatives to […]

Midway into October, many fantasy players now trust the full-season averages of their fantasy players, confident that a sample of five games has shaken out whatever quirks can exist within a smaller handful of games. And while that is a mostly fair perspective to have, there are still several players with outlier touchdown surpluses and […]

A month into the NFL season, it’s easy to assume you have a handle on which players will be better and which will be worse in fantasy based on their early-season production. But even over four games, contextual quirks can create massive benefits and penalties for players. Before you buy into Jared Goff and Geno […]

Dan Campbell’s Lions have found the perfect formula of efficient offense, inefficient defense, and fast pace for entertaining football. And while some might consider last week’s scoring bonanza between the Lions and Seahawks a one-time outburst, my pace and playcalling research suggests the Lions could spur more successful game stacks this season, including in Week […]

Fantasy players live and die by player touchdowns. Look no further than the public sentiment for top-10 fantasy pick Austin Ekeler, who went from a major bust to maybe the best early draft pick in the public eye after a three-touchdown outburst in Week 4.   But you don’t need to wait for overdue touchdowns […]

The Chiefs and Buccaneers will have their game Sunday in Tampa Bay after Hurricane Ian has passed by Florida. But that doesn’t mean Week 4 has dodged its weather concerns. As Ian turns back landward and snakes up the east coast, it will likely bring rain and heavy wind to the Cardinals and Panthers in […]

The 2022 season may prove to be the peak for all-time quarterbacks as no-doubt Hall of Famers like Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady continue to excel as they approach and into their 40s and as new potential stars like Trevor Lawrence and Tua Tagovailoa make an already rich crop of exciting young quarterbacks even richer. […]

Delightful Lions head coach Dan Campbell may have bitten off more kneecap than he could chew with his decision to attempt a 54-yard field goal in the waning minutes of his team’s Week 3 divisional showdown with the Vikings. But you cannot deny the Campbell has quickly turned a perennially uninspiring Lions team into a […]

Tua Tagovailoa shocked the football world with six touchdowns and a comeback win over the Ravens in Week 2. But his Week 3 Bills opponent presents a different defensive test that could hurt his fantasy production. I’ll examine the Dolphins, Bills and every other team with fantasy players whose perceived value is higher or lower […]

Tua Tagovailoa flipped his reputation head over heels with a 469-yard, six-touchdown comeback win over the Ravens in Week 2. And he may have debunked my assumption that the Dolphins would lean on their rushing offense the way Mike McDaniel’s former 49ers offense typically did.   I’ll examine the Dolphins’ passing and rushing trends and […]

It didn’t take long for Russell Wilson to hear boos from his new Denver home crowd. But Broncos fans and fantasy players alike can take solace that Wilson and his Broncos have been some of the unluckiest touchdown scorers through the first two weeks. In this weekly column, I will examine the biggest expected touchdown […]

Week 1’s major real football disappointments can be your biggest opportunities for fantasy wins in Week 2. The Bills embarrassed the Super Bowl champion Rams Thursday, but Matthew Stafford and company faces a much easier test in the Falcons this week. Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon fumbled away chances for Russell Wilson to win his […]

Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes may have established the NFL as a league of “haves” and “have nots” in Week 1. But from a fantasy perspective, a lot more teams offer some intrigue. Kevin O’Connell somehow unlocked even more potential for star Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson. The Eagles and Lions ran amok against each other. […]

Unexpected carry and target shares spur most waiver wire additions. But fantasy football players shouldn’t overlook touchdown expectations for their FAAB offers. Touchdowns can be extremely fluky over small samples. And in this weekly column, I will examine the biggest expected touchdown surpluses and shortfalls for each week and for the season to date and […]

The AFC South may be the least compelling division in real football, but it outkicks its coverage for fantasy football interest in Week 1. My anticipation of a Trevor Lawrence breakout makes him and several of his receiving teammates excellent options in a plus passing matchup in Washington on Sunday. Texans running back Dameon Pierce […]

The AFC West begins its presumed intra-divisional passing bonanza with the Chargers hosting the Raiders Sunday. That game could be the first of many from the division that offers fertile ground for passing and game stacks this season.    Welcome to Pace and Playcalling, my weekly column that explores tendencies in offensive and defensive plays […]

It would take a lifetime to understand every angle of the Packers’ trade up into the first round of the 2020 draft and selection of quarterback Jordan Love with Aaron Rodgers still under contract. Its implications have spiraled into soap opera with detours from actress Shailene Woodley to psychedelic drugs.   But Rodgers’ late-career rally […]

Touchdowns are on one hand everything in fantasy football, but they are also incredibly inconsistent.     Take this pair of Justin Herbert touchdowns from last season. On the first score, weak-side pressure forced Herbert out of the pocket. He barely had time to set his feet and unload the ball before a pair of pass-rushers […]

Receivers are the easier secondhand sleeper bets in fantasy football. They need accurate passes to make their catches, produce their yards, and score their touchdowns. But running backs rely on their quarterback efficiency in subtler ways. Better passers create more opportunities for carries with more first-down conversions and more leads that incentivize second-half carries to […]

In camps and in the preseason, everyone in fantasy football is excited by the new. Romeo Doubs and Isiah Pacheco could become the replacements the Packers and Chiefs need for Davante Adams and Darrel Williams (or maybe still Kareem Hunt). But the increased attention has pushed Doubs and Pacheco up draft boards and robbed fantasy […]

My preseason ranking annotations find their end at tight end. And while uncrowded top tiers led me to a chalky top 10 at the position, possibilities for increased target shares and better touchdown fortune have catapulted a few of my TE2 preferences to five or more spots ahead of their average draft positions.   You […]

My annotated fantasy rankings series continues on Day 2 with quarterbacks. And as rushing has become a bigger and bigger part of the modern position, you will find that rushing touchdown luck plays as much a part of my preferences versus ADP at this position as it did for running backs.   You can find […]

As the new player on the FTN fantasy football campus, I’m late to the rankings party for the 2022 season. And in what I can only assume is a hazing ritual that I somehow forced on myself, I am pulling back the curtain on my rankings by sharing the stats that motivated my choices for […]