MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 7/24)
Josh Gross
Last week was a rough one for all as trends and modeling projections were bucked. Oddsmakers raked it in in Week 3, but we’re tweaking some things and coming back stronger in Week 4. We now have enough data and games in the books to rely fully on what we’ve seen this year and not what we thought we knew entering the year.
In general, Week 4 is light on top matchups. This isn’t a bad thing for bettors. We’re looking to play the smaller games that oddsmakers have overlooked anyways.
Check out our breakdown of each of our top plays.
Liberty Flames at Syracuse Orange (September 24, 8:00 pm E.T. at Carrier Dome)
(Liberty -6, O/U 53, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Malik Willis show is coming to the Carrier Dome for what should be a fun Friday night battle. Liberty has been excellent with Willis under center, boasting a balanced unit that has torched Group of 5 opponents. To boot, Liberty has a defense that ranks 12th in scoring, 29th in passing yards, and 10th in rushing.
Syracuse has been a pleasant surprise at 2-1 on the year but they’re a home dog for a reason. Outside of rusher Sean Tucker, this offense lacks playmakers. The defense ranks well but they’ve also feasted against Ohio, Rutgers, and Albany. Liberty isn’t comparable to those bottom-feeders.
Liberty has a ton to prove this week as they try to climb the polls. This is a lot of points but I’m putting faith in the trends and more experienced Flames roster.
Betting Trends
Liberty has covered their last 10 spreads and won nine outright in that time span. They’ve gone under in four of their last six games.
Syracuse has gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games but has lost nine of 11 games overall. Their totals have hit under in five of their last seven games as an underdog.
Best Bet: Liberty -6 (-110)
UNLV Rebels at Fresno State Bulldogs (September 18, 4:00 pm E.T. at Liberty Bowl Stadium)
(Fresno State -31, O/U 58.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Has anyone been paying attention to what Fresno State is doing this season? They nearly upset Oregon in Week 1, and then were able to shock Chip Kelly and UCLA in Week 3. Their offense is phenomenally balanced, helping them hit a 4-0 ATS record.
They’re going to wreck a bad UNLV team that has been crushed the last two weeks. Iowa State is nowhere near as explosive as Fresno State is and they still lost by 45.
Betting Trends
UNLV has hit the under in six of their last nine games, and they’ve lost each of those contests. They’ve covered just twice in their last six against the Bulldogs.
Fresno has covered four of their last five overall, and 11-3-1 in their last 15 September games.
Best Bet: Fresno State -31 (-115) and Under 58.5 (-115)
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Virginia Cavaliers (September 24, 7:00 pm E.T. at Scott Stadium)
(Virginia -4, O/U 67, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Demon Deacons have one of the best one-two punches in the nation with quarterback Sam Hartman and rusher Christian Beal. Their combined efficiency makes most other teams jealous. Hartman has completed almost 69% of his passes, and Beal is almost at six yards-per-carry.
They accomplish this through a truly balanced attack. The offensive line is solid and allows few negative plays. The unit bodes their time until a big opportunity to reveal itself.
Almost exclusively a passing unit now, this is the Brennan Armstrong show. He’s a must-see star as he’s put up 1,298 yards on a 72% completion rate. Their spread offense has a plethora of tremendous receivers who maximize the output Armstrong controls.
Wake Forest must sell out to slow the big-play offense. Virginia gave up trying to run as the lanes rarely exist. For a unit that has excelled all-around, Wake must now answer this big step up in competition.
Betting Trends
Wake Forest has covered just once in their last five games despite winning seven of 10. They’ve won each of their last six games against Virginia.
Virginia has covered seven of their last nine games. The over has hit in 14 of their last 19 games.
Best Bet: Wake Forest +4 (-105)
Clemson Tigers at N.C. State Wolfpack (September 25, 3:30 pm E.T. at Carter-Finley Stadium)
(Clemson -9.5, O/U 47, DraftKings Sportsbook)
I thought Clemson and DJ Uiagalelei would figure things out this year after a promising stint in relief for Trevor Lawrence in 2020 but this team is missing heart, toughness, and speed. The offense has been stale and coordinator Tony Elliott needs to make major changes to survive. This team is ripe for losing another game.
N.C. State is a solid, well-rounded team that doesn’t beat itself. Their best linebackers are out for the season but I’m relying on this offense to pick up the slack. They should be no more than six-point underdogs, and a partial unit on the money line can be a smart longshot play.
Betting Trends
Clemson is 0-3 ATS this year and 1-4 in their last five games. Five of their last six games have gone under. They’ve covered four of their last six spreads against N.C. State and have won eight in a row.
The Wolfpack have covered four of their last five spreads, and have also gone under that span. They’ve won their last five games at home.
Best Bet: N.C. State +9.5 (-105)
