MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
The college football season is finally here. While it may be tempting to unload the bankroll on our first Saturday slate of the season, it’s important to still prioritize bankroll management. It’s the wild west of the college football season, and without any datapoints to work with we’re going to be making plenty of assumptions this week.
I would recommend scaling the action down to 0.25/0.5u bets for this opening week — it’s always important to remember this is a marathon, not a sprint. Here is my favorite bet for the opening weekend of the college football season. Each week of the season I’ll be offering my best bets and picks for the games. You can also follow along in our FTN Bet Tracker to see all the bets our experts place as the season goes along. Good luck this season.
Vanderbilt (-7.5) @ Hawaii (O/U 53.5)
10:30 p.m. ET Saturday
Bet: Vanderbilt -7.5, -110 (BetMGM)
Is there a better tradition for welcoming back the CFB season then sweating the Hawaii late-night game Saturday night? While early bettors are sitting on appealing -6.5/7 lines for Vanderbilt, I still think the value comes in even with the hook. This is one of the more unique matchups of the slate, with Hawaii rarely facing off against the SEC — last season, the only Power 5 teams they faced were UCLA and Oregon State, losing by 34 and 18, respectively. Vanderbilt struggled with their difficult SEC schedule last season, finishing 2-10 (6-6 ATS), while Hawaii went 6-7 (5-7-1) against much easier competition.
Both teams are coming in looking much different than last season, with Vandy only seven returning starters and Hawaii six. The good news for Vanderbilt is the Ken Seals experiment is over, with mobile quarterback Mike Wright taking over this season. Unfortunately for Rainbow Warrior fans, dual-threat quarterback Chevan Cordeiro has moved on, leaving them with a bit more of a complicated situation. While Cordeiro was never a superstar, he was a gritty leader who tended to show up in big situations. I think his presence will be missed.
This is likely going to be the only game this season where Vanderbilt actually has the advantage in the trenches, with multiple Power 5 transfers coming in to bolster this defense as a whole. They had the worst defense in the SEC last season, while Hawaii is coming in with one of the more experienced offensive lines in the Mountain West. It’s hard to compare these teams with the difference in competition, but signs point to sparks flying. Hawaii is going to want to come in and throw the ball — the Vanderbilt front should have the advantage here, but their secondary is going to need to slow this hyper Hawaii offense down. Hawaii has the worst defense in the Mountain West this season, and while Vanderbilt’s offense isn’t spectacular, they have the talent pedigree on their side here.
Overall, I simply think Vandy is the more talented team. While the travel to Hawaii can throw teams off midseason, Vanderbilt has arrived a week early and should be plenty prepared for the time change. Vanderbilt has won five straight as a road favorite and went 4-1 ATS in that span. They aren’t often favored with their incredibly tough schedule, but when they get an opportunity to play lesser talent, they normally take advantage of it. This will be a sloppy game, as both of these teams are going to be trusting a lot of new players, so I think the score runs up in this one.
