Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The 2021 SEC race is bound to be one of the most exciting we’ve seen in recent years. Alabama and LSU have often dominated the SEC despite flashes from Georgia, Texas A&M and Florida. Everyone else is aspiring to be a true rival to Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide, but every program would settle for becoming the occasionally elite LSU Tigers.
That includes the Tennessee Volunteers. Tennessee has been a mediocre program since Phillip Fulmer’s departure in 2008. Lane Kiffin brought false promise, and then the trio of Derek Dooley, Butch Jones and Jeremy Pruitt each proved incapable of finding consistency at this once-proud program. Now Josh Heupel is in line to give his best effort.
(Follow along with our entire college football conference betting preview series here.)
We’re going to break down the Volunteers’ team profile for 2021 and give our best bet values that are available. Though they’re a longshot by definition, there’s still a great opportunity to jump on a program that appears to be on the upswing.
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Tennessee Volunteers odds – win total
(O/U 6, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The first thing I look at when projecting team performance under a new coach is the experience he inherited from the previous regime. Even a great coaching staff will struggle if the talent is too young or doesn’t fit the new staff’s schematic priorities. Heupel will hopefully mold his offense around what is in place already but keep his principles intact.
A big hurdle for the Volunteers’ immediate success is they lost 46% of their production from last year. That mark ranks 117th out of 127 teams, and both sides were hit similarly hard. A large portion of both the offense and defense will need to mesh in the first year together.
The good news is Heupel hit the transfer portal hard. He lost quarterback Jarett Guarantano but recovered with two dual-threat options in Hendon Hooker from Virginia Tech and Joe Milton from Michigan. Neither is a developed passer yet, but both have strong arms and great rushing ability to at least give the offense a baseline skill set to revolve around.
Heupel also landed two graduate transfer receivers, two linemen and one running back to add needed depth to an otherwise young set of positional rooms. At the very least, there’s more experience on offense to rely on if the prospects who recently joined the program aren’t physically or mentally ready yet.
The defense was a bigger concern, since the SEC is loaded on offensive talent. Time will tell if the transfers pay off, but a whopping five transfers were added to the defensive front. They should complement an upperclassmen-laden secondary much more effectively than the young bunch that played in 2020.
Losing linebackers Henry To’o To’o and Quavaris Crouch will harm the second-level unit. Leading sackers Deandre Johnson and Kivon Bennett are also gone. We can easily see that holes pile up quickly when so much talent graduates or transfers out and there’s not been a pipeline of studs funneling in for a few years.
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This group only has two difficult road games on their 2021 schedule as they go to Florida and Alabama. Missouri and Kentucky are quality road games but are reasonably winnable. The remaining games this year are all at home and the Volunteers will take advantage.
I think the line of six games is a favorable number for us to grab. Wins against Bowling Green, Pittsburgh, Tennessee Tech, Missouri, South Carolina, Kentucky, South Alabama and Vanderbilt are possible, if not likely. At worst this will be a push.
The Volunteers have no shot at winning beyond a solid regular-season mark, so the SEC title game futures bet and SEC East division bet are poor values. Instead, focus on what is readily attainable for this program in Year 1.
Our pick: Over 6 (+100) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Hendon Hooker Heisman Trophy odds
(+7500, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The other significant futures bet we can make on Tennessee is on their top Heisman Trophy contender. Quarterback Hendon Hooker should edge out Joe Milton in the quarterback derby based on his experience, stronger arm and rushing ability. Heupel will need to squeeze as much production as he can from this unit to stay competitive each week and Hooker is the stronger competitor of the two.
Heupel’s experience with Dillon Gabriel at UCF is a good baseline for what he’d ideally see from his quarterback. Gabriel was a low-efficiency passer at 60% completion rate but routinely hit big plays. He accumulated 32 scores to just four interceptions on 8.6 yards per attempt because he took one-on-one shots and most of his targets were determined pre-snap.
Hooker will benefit from the same approach. He averaged 9.3 yards per attempt at Virginia Tech with worse athletes and posted a 63% completion rate. While Hooker couldn’t find the same success finding the end zone, Heupel can create more advantageous looks than Justin Fuente could figure out with the Hokies.
Hooker is a major longshot to win the Heisman because the Volunteers likely won’t be good enough to hit the 10-win mark, which is likely the barometer for this team to outperform expectations enough to generate needed momentum.
