Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The college football season is finally almost upon us. Just a few weeks remain until opening kickoff happens. This is the best chance for bettors to land odds with great value attached to them.
We’re breaking down each college football division for you to unearth the best plays. The ACC Coastal Division will be an entertaining race featuring tough competition. There are two major favorites in North Carolina and Miami, followed by five teams on the outside trying to claw their way into the conversation.
(Follow along with our entire college football conference betting preview series here.)
Each program has a unique roster and play style that makes this a fun divisional race. No one will mistake this for the most talented group of teams in the country but this is an excellent opportunity to know the ACC Coastal inside and out so we can profit off their divisional odds. From North Carolina to Duke, let’s dive in and preview each team’s season outlook.
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North Carolina Tar Heels division winner odds
(+130, DraftKings Sportsbook)
One of the nation’s top offenses in 2020 set high expectations for Mack Brown’s North Carolina Tar Heels in 2021. The Tar Heels finished 8-4 and garnered respect for their ability to finally compete with the big boys of the ACC. However, their bid to win bigger was thwarted by a subpar defense and untimely mental mistakes.
This year’s iteration will look different despite returning 79% of their 2020 production. Gone are offensive stars Javonte Williams, Dyami Brown and Michael Carter. Quarterback Sam Howell is a likely first-round pick in 2022, but he’s also their most productive returning rusher. Howell will need to ascend into an elite performer weekly to lift his young cast of weapons.
The defense also has work to do with leading tackler Chazz Surratt in the NFL. Brown has recruited well since arriving at the school, but the depth of the program will be tested.
North Carolina has a favorable schedule as a pathway to win the ACC Coastal Division but not the best overall roster.
Miami (FL) Hurricanes division winner odds
(+135, DraftKings Sportsbook)
I love the value we’re getting on the Miami Hurricanes. Head coach Manny Diaz has a slew of talent back on the field in 2021. Tight end Brevin Jordan is the only departed offensive starter, and defensive ends Jaelan Phillips and Quincy Roche are the notable defenders gone. In total, they rank second in the nation in returning production.
Star quarterback D’Eriq King gives them a fighting chance against every single opponent on their schedule, including Week 1 against Alabama. King’s improvisational skill and ability to run makes him arguably the most dangerous offensive weapon in the nation in 2021. And he’s surrounded by a tremendously talented cast of pass catchers and runners who can complement his game.
The defense has every starting linebacker and secondary member back from 2020 as well. They need to produce a quality pass-rusher to maximize the unit, but Diaz has a history of creating production from the edges. I think Miami wins the ACC Coastal Division and threatens Clemson in the conference title game.
Virginia Tech Hokies division winner odds
(+800, DraftKings Sportsbook)
It’s make-or-break time for Justin Fuente and the Virginia Tech Hokies. His fifth season with the program ended with a pitiful 5-6 record, and he’s lost three consecutive bowl games. One more poor season and the Hokies may need to turn the page as the offensive coach hasn’t produced any impressive unit during his tenure.
Dual-threat quarterback Hendon Hooker transferred to Tennessee and there’s uncertainty as Braxton Burmeister will compete with redshirt freshman Knox Kadum and former Texas A&M quarterback and running back Connor Blumrick. They’re also having to replace star rusher Khalil Herbert and big-play receiver James Mitchell.
The defense isn’t much better off as they enter the year with only 67% of their production from 2020 back. They’ll have to be a great unit because the offense will again be limited. It’s hard to be optimistic about their upside.
This is a poor value bet, and I could see the Hokies finishing as low as sixth in the ACC Coastal Division.
Pittsburgh Panthers division winner odds
(+1000, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The best thing that can be said about Pat Narduzzi’s tenure at Pitt is the product continues to be predictable. There’s not a big upside to the team, but they’re solid each week. They play ball control well and keep teams close. This is bad for their ability to win the ACC Coastal Division, but we can use their predictability to our advantage.
The offense is bringing a lot of experience back. Senior quarterback Kenny Pickett will get a shot in the NFL as a backup thanks to his strong arm and comfort under center. Leading rusher Vincent Davis is also back, and both will benefit from an offensive line starting four redshirt seniors and one redshirt junior.
The defense has less upside and must fix the communication issues that plagued them last year. Especially with big games at Tennessee, and then a tough four-week span featuring Clemson, Miami and North Carolina, the Panthers can’t afford to do anything but fulfill their ceiling to even hit .500.
Virginia Cavaliers division winner odds
(+1100, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The longshot team that has shown the best ability to pull a shocking season is the Virginia Cavaliers. Sans his debut 2-10 season, Bronco Mendenhall has been quite good for the program. He’s achieved a 28-22 record over the last five seasons, including two years with eight or more wins.
Work is needed for them to improve upon their 5-5 mark last year. Just 66% of their total production is back from last year, and no ACC Coastal team has less defensive production returning. The offense, with quarterback Brennan Armstrong and running back Wayne Taulapapa back as leaders, must pave the way with a more efficient campaign to overcome the young defense.
The Cavaliers have a favorable conference schedule at least. Road trips to North Carolina and Miami will be difficult, but the rest of their ACC games are winnable or at home. If you need a longshot pick, this is your team.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets division winner odds
(+3500, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are an extremely young team looking to build off back-to-back disappointing seasons. The good news for head coach Geoff Collins is they’re bringing back most of their starters. The offense should only get better as their backfield tandem of Jeff Sims and Jahmyr Gibbs enter their second season.
Their biggest hurdle is offensive efficiency. Sims was a true freshman and he understandably struggled. He completed less than 55% of his attempts and had as many interceptions (13) as touchdowns (13). This cannot repeat itself if the team wants to get over the .500 hump.
There’s not a pathway for the Yellow Jackets to win the ACC Coastal Division. Their schedule is brutal and the overall talent simply isn’t there yet. But they could be more of a threat in 2022 if they can survive the tough learning curve this year.
Duke Blue Devils division winner odds
(+7500, DraftKings Sportsbook)
We might be looking at the worst overall team in the country in Duke. A pitiful offense that had just one notable performer in 2020 (running back Mataeo Durant) has just 51% of its production back. Durant is absolutely worth watching this terrible team for, but the passing attack has a new quarterback in Gunnar Holmberg taking over, and a slew of receivers who collectively averaged about 10 yards per catch.
The defense isn’t in much better hands. They rank 92nd in returning production and the front seven is filled with youngsters. The ACC pulverizes young bodies in the running game. Their best asset is an experienced secondary that can at least hold their own most weeks.
Head coach David Cutcliffe continues to be on a downhill slide after losing Daniel Jones to the NFL. This might be the nail in his coaching career coffin for the to-be 67-year-old.
