Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
This weekend was full of action-packed college hoops, and a couple of underdogs had their day in the Round of 32 of the NCAA Tournament. It all started early Saturday when No. 8 North Carolina took down No. 1 Baylor. Baylor is the only No. 1 seed to be eliminated so far.
No. 11 Iowa State bested No. 4 Wisconsin, and Cinderella story No. 15 Saint Peter’s bested No. 7 Murray State. My underdog picks from this column went 3-1 this weekend. I had No. 8 North Carolina and No. 15 Saint Peter’s on the moneyline, and I also had No. 9 Memphis covering the spread against No. 1 Gonzaga, which they did.
The Sweet 16 begins Thursday, and I dove into the games to find value on some teams who are underdogs. I found three games that I think are mispriced, so without further ado, let’s take a look at the best underdog bets for the Sweet 16.
Best Underdog Bets Against the Spread
No. 4 Arkansas vs. No. 1 Gonzaga
(+9, Caesars Sportsbook)
We learned in the Round of 32 that every team is beatable. There were limited blowout wins, and most games were close throughout. Gonzaga is certainly the better team, but nine points seem like way too many. Arkansas won two close matchups and has momentum heading into this contest. Gonzaga struggled at times vs. No. 9 Memphis, and I expect Arkansas’ athleticism to give the Zags some problems.
No. 15 Saint Peter’s vs. No. 3 Purdue
(+12.5, Caesars Sportsbook)
Saint Peter’s is the Cinderella story of March this year. After beating No. 2 Kentucky, Saint Peter’s took down No. 7 Murray State in convincing fashion. Purdue defeated a strong Texas team in the Round of 32 and looked as good as any team in the country. This is another case of the spread being way too high. Purdue has the talent, but Saint Peter’s will to win is unmatched. They are a hard-nosed bunch of players that give maximum effort and are on a mission to win. Give me the Peacocks with the points.
Best Underdog Moneyline Bet
No 2. Duke vs. No. 3 Texas Tech
(-105, Caesars Sportsbook)
No. 2 Duke against No. 3 Texas Tech has all the makings to be the best game of the tournament so far. Duke is a negative odds underdog since this matchup is so close. No. 3 Texas Tech has looked like a juggernaut while No. 2 Duke has looked unbeatable themselves. I think the difference in this heavyweight matchup comes down to one player, Paolo Banchero. Banchero is making a strong case to be the first overall pick in the NBA Draft and continues to assert himself as the best player on the floor night in and night out. Give me Duke to make the Elite Eight.
