Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
After an incredible regular season, college basketball is on the precipice of the glorious month of March. The NCAA Tournament is just two weeks away, and we will once again be filled with dominant programs, great individual performances and dangerous mid-major underdogs.
First, however, we are truly blessed with college basketball’s conference tournament season!
The Sun Belt Conference always provides one of the most exciting end-of-season tournaments, and joins the Horizon League, Patriot League and Atlantic Sun Conference as the first four postseason competitions.
Southern Mississippi edged out Marshall and Louisiana for the regular-season title, finishing with a 14-4 record. This is the Golden Eagles’ first season in the Sun Belt, joining after 22 years in Conference USA.
The Sun Belt Conference plays all of their tournament games at the Pensacola Bay Center in Pensacola, Florida. There are two opening-round games on February 28, two second-round games on March 2 and then three straight days starting on March 4 until a champion is crowned.
The Sun Belt Conference Tournament consists of all 14 teams. The games are played over a six-day period, with the eventual champion earning their automatic bid next Monday, March 6. The top 4 seeds (Southern Mississippi, Marshall, Louisiana, James Madison) all get the favorable double-bye into the quarterfinals.
2023 NCAA Tournament Betting Previews
Sun Belt Tournament Bracket
Sun Belt Tournament History
The dominant run of Georgia State likely ends this year. The Panthers have reached the tournament finals the past four seasons, tallying three championships. They entered last season’s tournament on a seven-game winning streak and earned three straight victories to reach the 2022 NCAA Tournament.
Besides earning the top overall seed, Southern Mississippi has also gone 18-10 ATS, best in the Sun Belt. The worst team ATS in conference? Georgia State with a 6-20-1 record, which was also the second-worst mark in the entire country.
Sun Belt Tournament Odds & Betting Breakdown
The Defending Champion
Georgia State (No. 10 Seed)
Odds: +50000
Georgia State’s run earned former head coach Rob Lanier the job at SMU, giving the reins to first-year head coach Jonas Hayes. It’s been an understandable transition year for the Panthers, who enter the tournament on a seven-game losing streak. It is likely a one-and-done Sun Belt Tournament for Georgia State.
Best Value
Marshall (No. 4 Seed)
Odds: +200
The top seed is also the best value.
Marshall earns one of the four double-byes and would likely face an Old Dominion team that would have their full attention after beating the Thundering Herd, 71-67 last Friday. Marshall lost the conference title and No.1 overall seed as a result of that loss to the Monarchs. Prior to that loss, however, Marshall had won five straight games playing their best basketball of the season.
The Thundering Herd play at the eighth-fastest pace in college basketball and are led by a pair of 20 PPG scorers in Taevion Kinsey (22.2 PPG) and Andrew Taylor (20.2 PPG). Marshall features the conference’s best two-point offense, shooting 53.9% from inside the arc. They were 19-11 ATS and an impressive 8-6 ATS on the road.
Momentum Play
Troy (No. 6 Seed)
Odds: +1600
Head coach Scott Cross has been one of college basketball’s most underrated coaches. Troy has won six of their last seven games, with the only loss being an 88-78 defeat at Marshall. The Trojans have the Sun Belt’s best defense per KenPom and held conference opponents to 46.4% from inside the arc. They are also due for some massive regression with their opponent’s free-throw production. Teams are shooting 75.7% from the charity stripe, the overwhelming best mark in conference play.
Their quarterfinal matchup would be against James Madison, a first-year Sun Belt team which they battled to an overtime loss in January. Troy was also very competitive in both games against No. 1 seed Southern Mississippi. Their path is difficult, but an elite defense and superior coach in Cross make Troy my favorite Sun Belt Tournament momentum play.
The Long Shot
Old Dominion (No. 6 Seed)
Odds: +3000
The winner of the Marshall-Old Dominion game will have a ton of momentum, which could be the Monarchs. They won six of their last seven games, including the massive win over Marshall. Old Dominion’s kryptonite was James Madison, which beat them twice in a two-week span in February. The good news is the Dukes are on the other side of the bracket, potentially pairing the Monarchs with a Louisiana team they already beat.
Head coach Jeff Jones is in his 10th season in Norfolk, Virginia, and would love a second trip to the NCAA Tournament. Old Dominion’s slow, deliberate style is difficult to replicate in practice. Their strong defense and elite offensive rebounding make this a great value play. If they beat Marshall, I expect the Monarchs to be in the Sun Belt Tournament finals.
