Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The 2021-22 college basketball season is in full swing, and conference play provides matchups between the top teams in the country. Below are my analysis and favorite bets for Tuesday’s slate.
Michigan State vs. Wisconsin
(Line: Michigan State -4, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Sparty was able to handle a Tyler Wahl-less Wisconsin team pretty convincingly a few weeks ago on the road, winning by a 12-point margin. Michigan State was able to use their length on the wing to slow down Johnny Davis (you can only hope to contain him) and force Brad Davison to take a high volume of shots (10 threes) and the gameplan worked out favorably. Wahl is back for this one, but I don’t think it sways the matchup too much. Wisconsin has not had much success at the Breslin Center in the Greg Gard era and Sparty is coming off an embarrassing road blowout to Rutgers, so I like the bounceback spot for Tom Izzo. What jumps out to me most is Michigan State’s biggest weakness is their alarming turnover rate, yet Wisconsin’s defense isn’t built to take advantage of that (264th nationally in turnover percentage defense). I like the spot and the matchup where Hoggard/Walker should have success again in the PnR, and Izzo will have them ready for a bounceback home win against a regressing Badger team.
The Pick: Michigan State -4
LSU vs. Texas A&M
(Line: LSU -1.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Both squads are sinking fast, with Texas A&M losers of six straight and LSU losers of six of their last seven. These two met a few weeks ago in a fairly close game where LSU was able to put it away late with two of their starters (Darius Days and Xavier Pinson) sitting out due to injuries. Timing where the LSU demise will end is not easy, but I think this could be the best buy-low spot for the Tigers. They are finally back to full strength, their defense still statistically remains elite (third nationally) and they so have some matchup advantages over the Aggies. Defense travels on the road, and LSU will certainly make life hard on the A&M guards again here, but the biggest advantage LSU has in on the offensive glass, where they rank 27th nationally while Texas A&M struggles ranking 336th nationally in defensive rebounding percentage. For an offense that has been struggling as of late, Days and Eason should live on the glass and help get easy buckets for LSU and I think their losing streak has a good chance of ending here against the Aggies.
The Pick: LSU -1.5
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Syracuse vs. Boston College
(Line: Syracuse -3.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)
I always cringe when placing a bet on this years Syracuse team and their 237th-ranked makeshift zone defense, but schematically they do have advantages over some ACC opponents and Boston College is one of them. The Syracuse zone gives up a ridiculous number of open three pointers, but Boston College isn’t a team that likes to score from behind the arch at all (319th nationally in 3pt FGA and 304th in 3pt FG%). Boston College is primarily a heavy PnR offense behind Makai Ashton-Langford, but the zone will take away that action completely and force Boston College to move the ball around the perimeter where they assist at a rate that’s 254th nationally. On the offensive side, Syracuse is an elite shooting team where BC gives up 36.4% from behind the arch. Syracuse should have no problems scoring in this one and should be able to get out in transition here. I don’t see Earl Grant being able to make the proper adjustments to keep up scoring wise with the Orange and I see this game shaking out similarly to Syracuse’s last few wins.
The Pick: Syracuse -3.5
