College basketball odds and betting picks for Tuesday (1/4)

The 2021-22 college basketball season is in full swing, and we start the new year with some conference matchups between the top teams in the country. Below is my analysis and favorite bet for Tuesday’s slate.

LSU vs. Kentucky

(Line: LSU -1, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Kentucky has become a different animal after their loss to Notre Dame in early December, rattling off four straight wins with an average margin of victory of 34 points. On the other hand, LSU is coming off a very poor performance on the road at Auburn which put an end to their undefeated season. LSU’s success this season has stemmed from Will Wade’s new aggressive extended defensive pressure which forces a ton live ball turnovers for easy buckets on the other end (fifth nationally in turnover percentage defense and first in steal percentage). Can Kentucky handle the defensive pressure in a hostile environment on the road? I think they can behind improving point guard Sahvir Wheeler and freshman stud TyTy Washington.

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Kentucky’s impressive recent play has come behind the stellar play of their backcourt highlighted by Georgia import Sahvir Wheeler, who has had a 3 to 1 assist-to-turnover ratio of the four-game stretch. Being able to avoid live ball turnovers from ball hawks Xavier Pinson and Eric Gaines is a priority for the Cats and their backcourt is playing their best basketball of the season and doesn’t turn the ball over often (ranking 69th in turnover percentage). LSU runs their offense through attacking the rim with versatile forwards Tari Eason and Darius Days, yet they will run into one of the best centers in the country who feasts on the glass, Oscar Tshiebwe. This game is going to be physical underneath with both frontcourt’s beating each other up and I envision some foul trouble on both ends. Yet, what the difference will be is on the perimeter and I think Kentucky has more paths to score offensively than LSU does. Calipari typically has Kentucky playing their best basketball towards the end of the season and it seems they have turned the corner early in SEC play. LSU’s defense is legit, but Wheeler should be able to generate enough open looks for sharpshooter Kellen Grady and TyTy Washington, and I think Kentucky comes away with a statement conference win on the road.

The Pick: Kentucky +1

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